Re-signed RHRP Bob Howry to a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration
I haven't been able to glean the monetary details from the Web, but I'll assume it's around $1M, give or take a little. Pretty good signing, given Howry's effectiveness and his possible versatility. With Riske, Betancourt, Miller, and Sauerbeck already reasonable shots to comprise next year's bullpen, only the closer role is vacant. But like I said before, the Indians should go ahead and sign a bunch of NRIs to stick in Buffalo just in case.
Re-signed RHSP Scott Elarton to a one-year contract ($850k plus incentives)
It looks like Shapiro isn't wasting any time taking care of the role players. Elarton at $850k is probably below market value, given the general appetite for starting pitching throughout the league. Elarton is most definitely still in the marginal category, but as a 5th starter, you'll take your chances with him. Now that four-fifths of the rotation seem spoken for, Shapiro can go after a second-tier starter to man the third spot in the rotation. I'd really like to see the Indians go hard after Matt Clement; he's probably one of the few pitchers out there that may be a better pitcher in 2005 than 2004. He hails from nearby Butler, Pa., only a two hours' drive from Cleveland, so that would be a nice selling point.
Writings about the Cleveland Indians and other completely unrelated things
Friday, October 29, 2004
Thursday, October 28, 2004
The Offseason Begins
First of all, congrats to the Boston Red Sox, the 2004 World Series Champions.
When the last out was recorded in Game 4, baseball's 2004-2005 offseason officially began. Players who are eligible can declare free agency beginning today, and in a couple weeks clubs can begin to sign free agents from other teams. In November, clubs must decide who among their Rule 5 eligibles to protect on their 40-man roster. In December, clubs decide whether to offer arbitration to players on their roster who are eligible.
To help sort these things out, I've provided a graphical representation of the Tribe's offseason in the left and right columns. The first thing you'll see on the left-hand column is the 40-man roster. The number currently on the roster is in parenthesis. As free agents file, they will officially leave the roster. These players are noted by a "(FA)" next to their name. When they do file for free agency, I'll place them under "Pending Free Agents." The players currently on the 60-day Disabled List will be reinstated to the 40-man roster fairly soon, so this list should disappear until right before the 2005 season begins. The players on the 40-man roster with an "(A)" next to their name are eligible for arbitration. In late December, if they haven't been signed, the Indians have to decide whether to offer them arbitration or non-tender them. If a player is non-tendered, they automatically become a free agent eligible to sign with any club. And finally, the "Pending m-Free Agents" refers to players in the organization who are minor-league free agents. These players can sign with any organization immediately.
In the right-hand column, there's just a few things to explain. The "Signed for 2005" column is a holding area for players the Indians have signed for minor-league contracts, but haven't been assigned to a minor-league roster. When the team starts releasing lists of players invited to Spring Training, some of the players will go there. Guys like Jeremy Sowers and Brian Barton are there just because they haven't been assigned to a specific roster yet.
Minor-league players with a "(5)" next to their name are, to my estimation, eligible for the Rule 5 draft. I'll get more into this in a month or so.
Player Reviews: Renewables, Part I
"Renewables" refers to players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible for arbitration (0-2 years of MLB service time). Some players I will cover when I do my prospect rankings later in the winter, so if I skip over someone, you'll know why. Oh, by the way, "AE" is short for "Arbitration Eligible." Take these dates with a grain of salt, for they assume that the player will from next year on spend the entire time on the 25-man roster. This obviously is not going to the case for a lot of players, but I'd rather err on the side of caution. For example, Fernando Cabrera will be arbitration eligible after the 2007 season if he spends the next three seasons with the major-league club. Ok, on with the reviews.
C Josh Bard - Age 26
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 EQA: .377 (19 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)
With the imminent departure of Tim Laker, Bard is finally the permanent backup catcher. That's a good thing; Bard has some offensive ability, is a pretty good defender, and he's a switch-hitter. Moreover, he's good enough to allow Wedge to sit Victor Martinez more often in 2005. Some clubs have worse starting catchers than Bard, so when he's eligible for arbitration in one or two years, should fetch something in a trade. Until then, the Indians should have the best catching tandem in baseball.
LHRP Cliff Bartosh - Age 25
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: 3.5 (19.1 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)
Bartosh is a LOOGY-in-training, and might eventually become a nice one, judging by his strikeout rates. He may become expendible with the addition of Scott Sauerbeck and the return of Brian Tallet, but both are coming back from injuries, and Bartosh has been healthy. If the Indians need a spot on their 40-man roster, he's the first one to go. As with most bullpen arms, your guess is as good as mine as to what numbers he'll put up next season, whoever he pitches with.
RHRP Rafael Betancourt - Age 29
2004 Salary: $305,200
2004 VORP: 14.5 (66.2 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)
A nice find via minor-league free agency, Betancourt was the bullpen's most consistent pitcher in 2004. The one note of caution is that while his strikeouts and walks have remained pretty stable compared to 2003, his hit ratio has gone up. With Raffy's unconventional delivery, you could take this trend as AL hitters getting used to his short-armed delivery. Or you could just look at his other numbers and decide the hits are more indicative of luck (or lack thereof). Betancourt isn't a pitcher you should be spending a lot of money on when he gets to arbitration, but the Indians will gladly take this while he's only making six figures.
1B Ben Broussard - Age 28
2004 Salary: $324,100
2004 EQA: .289 (418 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)
He's still probably a placeholder for Michael Aubrey, but you certainly can't compain with his performance in 2004. Broussard might be overvalued right because of all the RBIs, leading to referrals of "clutchness," but if it increases his trade value in a year or two, I'm all for it. He should again be a part-timer in 2005, sharing time with Josh Phelps. He still has to hit for more power, but everything else looks pretty good.
OF Coco Crisp - Age 24
2004 Salary: $319,400
2004 EQA: .266 (491 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)
Fourth outfielder, or Shannon Stewart Lite? That's what I've been asking myself regarding Crisp lately. I think if Crisp can fully use his speed to his advantage, then he's a full-time player. That means a better on-base percentage, and a better steal percentage. If he does those two things next season, he's a keeper. Otherwise, he'll get stuck in between, and hopefully the Indians won't be the team that overpays for him. His power has been a nice revelation, but I think that he'll be more of a doubles hitter than a home-run threat. If things stay the same in the outfield, he should get 500 at-bats next season. That should be enough to tell us what kind of player Coco is.
I'll cover Andrew Brown, Fernando Cabrera, and Francisco Cruceta later in the winter, when I rank the organization's top 20 prospects.
When the last out was recorded in Game 4, baseball's 2004-2005 offseason officially began. Players who are eligible can declare free agency beginning today, and in a couple weeks clubs can begin to sign free agents from other teams. In November, clubs must decide who among their Rule 5 eligibles to protect on their 40-man roster. In December, clubs decide whether to offer arbitration to players on their roster who are eligible.
To help sort these things out, I've provided a graphical representation of the Tribe's offseason in the left and right columns. The first thing you'll see on the left-hand column is the 40-man roster. The number currently on the roster is in parenthesis. As free agents file, they will officially leave the roster. These players are noted by a "(FA)" next to their name. When they do file for free agency, I'll place them under "Pending Free Agents." The players currently on the 60-day Disabled List will be reinstated to the 40-man roster fairly soon, so this list should disappear until right before the 2005 season begins. The players on the 40-man roster with an "(A)" next to their name are eligible for arbitration. In late December, if they haven't been signed, the Indians have to decide whether to offer them arbitration or non-tender them. If a player is non-tendered, they automatically become a free agent eligible to sign with any club. And finally, the "Pending m-Free Agents" refers to players in the organization who are minor-league free agents. These players can sign with any organization immediately.
In the right-hand column, there's just a few things to explain. The "Signed for 2005" column is a holding area for players the Indians have signed for minor-league contracts, but haven't been assigned to a minor-league roster. When the team starts releasing lists of players invited to Spring Training, some of the players will go there. Guys like Jeremy Sowers and Brian Barton are there just because they haven't been assigned to a specific roster yet.
Minor-league players with a "(5)" next to their name are, to my estimation, eligible for the Rule 5 draft. I'll get more into this in a month or so.
Player Reviews: Renewables, Part I
"Renewables" refers to players on the 40-man roster who are not yet eligible for arbitration (0-2 years of MLB service time). Some players I will cover when I do my prospect rankings later in the winter, so if I skip over someone, you'll know why. Oh, by the way, "AE" is short for "Arbitration Eligible." Take these dates with a grain of salt, for they assume that the player will from next year on spend the entire time on the 25-man roster. This obviously is not going to the case for a lot of players, but I'd rather err on the side of caution. For example, Fernando Cabrera will be arbitration eligible after the 2007 season if he spends the next three seasons with the major-league club. Ok, on with the reviews.
C Josh Bard - Age 26
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 EQA: .377 (19 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)
With the imminent departure of Tim Laker, Bard is finally the permanent backup catcher. That's a good thing; Bard has some offensive ability, is a pretty good defender, and he's a switch-hitter. Moreover, he's good enough to allow Wedge to sit Victor Martinez more often in 2005. Some clubs have worse starting catchers than Bard, so when he's eligible for arbitration in one or two years, should fetch something in a trade. Until then, the Indians should have the best catching tandem in baseball.
LHRP Cliff Bartosh - Age 25
2004 Salary: ~$300,000
2004 VORP: 3.5 (19.1 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2006)
Bartosh is a LOOGY-in-training, and might eventually become a nice one, judging by his strikeout rates. He may become expendible with the addition of Scott Sauerbeck and the return of Brian Tallet, but both are coming back from injuries, and Bartosh has been healthy. If the Indians need a spot on their 40-man roster, he's the first one to go. As with most bullpen arms, your guess is as good as mine as to what numbers he'll put up next season, whoever he pitches with.
RHRP Rafael Betancourt - Age 29
2004 Salary: $305,200
2004 VORP: 14.5 (66.2 IP)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005 or 2006)
A nice find via minor-league free agency, Betancourt was the bullpen's most consistent pitcher in 2004. The one note of caution is that while his strikeouts and walks have remained pretty stable compared to 2003, his hit ratio has gone up. With Raffy's unconventional delivery, you could take this trend as AL hitters getting used to his short-armed delivery. Or you could just look at his other numbers and decide the hits are more indicative of luck (or lack thereof). Betancourt isn't a pitcher you should be spending a lot of money on when he gets to arbitration, but the Indians will gladly take this while he's only making six figures.
1B Ben Broussard - Age 28
2004 Salary: $324,100
2004 EQA: .289 (418 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)
He's still probably a placeholder for Michael Aubrey, but you certainly can't compain with his performance in 2004. Broussard might be overvalued right because of all the RBIs, leading to referrals of "clutchness," but if it increases his trade value in a year or two, I'm all for it. He should again be a part-timer in 2005, sharing time with Josh Phelps. He still has to hit for more power, but everything else looks pretty good.
OF Coco Crisp - Age 24
2004 Salary: $319,400
2004 EQA: .266 (491 AB)
Contract Status: Renewable (AE in 2005)
Fourth outfielder, or Shannon Stewart Lite? That's what I've been asking myself regarding Crisp lately. I think if Crisp can fully use his speed to his advantage, then he's a full-time player. That means a better on-base percentage, and a better steal percentage. If he does those two things next season, he's a keeper. Otherwise, he'll get stuck in between, and hopefully the Indians won't be the team that overpays for him. His power has been a nice revelation, but I think that he'll be more of a doubles hitter than a home-run threat. If things stay the same in the outfield, he should get 500 at-bats next season. That should be enough to tell us what kind of player Coco is.
I'll cover Andrew Brown, Fernando Cabrera, and Francisco Cruceta later in the winter, when I rank the organization's top 20 prospects.
Bobby Avila (1924-2004)
The last Indian to win a batting title has died. Avila was an integral part of the 1954 Indians, a team that still holds the American League record for winning percentage (.721). Avila was the first Mexican to have any real success in the major leagues. After returning home, he served in various facets of the Mexican government.
Baseball Library entry
Career Stats
Baseball Library entry
Career Stats
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Point/Counterpoint - Omar Vizquel
These are some arguments I've heard as reasons for keeping Omar Vizquel around, and my counter-arguments. I'll add to them as more arguments come my way.
Point: Omar Vizquel is a Future Hall of Famer, so the Indians should keep him.
Counterpoint: That Vizquel will probably get some votes in 2010-2012 is probably true. Will he get enough votes to get into the Hall of Fame right away? I doubt it. With quanifying defensive prowess being such a grey area, Vizquel doesn't have an ironclad case other than his Gold Gloves. The biggest obstacle Vizquel will face is the changing of the MLB shortstop from a defensive specialist to an offensive weapon, beginning with Cal Ripken and continuing with players like Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Tejada.
There is the Ozzie Smith exception to getting into the Hall of Fame, but Smith generally is considered the best defensive shortstop ever. His career range factor (5.03) bests Vizquel's (4.43) by a fairly large margin. Smith also had the benefit of playing in an era when he wasn't as overshadowed by more offensive players at his position. Smith's OPS+ (87) is better than Vizquel's (85). I'd say in retrospect Vizquel's career is more similar to fellow Venezuelan Dave Concepcion than Smith, and Concepcion hasn't made the Hall.
I guess my point is that Vizquel is anything but a slam dunk to make the Hall of Fame. That being said, even if I could travel into the future and find out that Vizquel will make the HOF in 7-8 years, will that change the player he is now or next year? No. Here's a sampling of what Hall of Fame (or Hall of Fame-caliber) shortstops did in their Age 38 season (OPS+ in parenthesis):
Luis Aparicio, 1972: .257/.299/.351 (89)
Dave Bancoft, 1928: .277/.331/.332 (66)
Ernie Banks, 1969: .253/.309/.416 (92)*
Barry Larkin, 2002: .245/.305/.367 (71)
Rabbit Maranville, 1930: .281/.344/.367 (74)
Pee Wee Reese, 1957: .224/.306/.248 (46)
Ozzie Smith, 1993: .288/.337/.356 (88)
Honus Wagner, 1912: .324/.395/.496 (145)
Bobby Wallace, 1912: .241/.332/.316 (89)
*As a first baseman
All of those listed above posted an OPS+ below their career average except for Wagner.
As far as the "You don't let a Hall of Famer leave" argument is concerned, I'll just say two words: Roberto Alomar.
Point: The Indians owe Vizquel for staying.
Counterpoint: The Indians haven't exactly underpaid for Vizquel's services in recent years. Vizquel's most recent contract extension paid him $15M over the past two seasons. In today's economic climate, that's overpaying.
Point: If the Indians don't bring back Vizquel, I'm not going back to the Jake again.
Counterpoint: That's nice.
Point: Vizquel is being kicked to the curbed because of Dolan's penny-pinching ways.
Counterpoint: This may be true to some extent, but I don't think bringing Vizquel back would be such a good idea regardless of the Indians' payroll, for reasons mentioned above. If the Indians had a $70M payroll and paid Vizquel $5M while Jhonny Peralta rotted in the minors, I'd be ticked off. Until Shapiro traded Peralta for a LOOGY in July, when I'd be really ticked off. Shapiro can't control the teams' payroll, but the fact that he has $45M instead of $70M to work with makes him less likely to keep indulgences like Vizquel around.
Point: Omar Vizquel is a Future Hall of Famer, so the Indians should keep him.
Counterpoint: That Vizquel will probably get some votes in 2010-2012 is probably true. Will he get enough votes to get into the Hall of Fame right away? I doubt it. With quanifying defensive prowess being such a grey area, Vizquel doesn't have an ironclad case other than his Gold Gloves. The biggest obstacle Vizquel will face is the changing of the MLB shortstop from a defensive specialist to an offensive weapon, beginning with Cal Ripken and continuing with players like Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Miguel Tejada.
There is the Ozzie Smith exception to getting into the Hall of Fame, but Smith generally is considered the best defensive shortstop ever. His career range factor (5.03) bests Vizquel's (4.43) by a fairly large margin. Smith also had the benefit of playing in an era when he wasn't as overshadowed by more offensive players at his position. Smith's OPS+ (87) is better than Vizquel's (85). I'd say in retrospect Vizquel's career is more similar to fellow Venezuelan Dave Concepcion than Smith, and Concepcion hasn't made the Hall.
I guess my point is that Vizquel is anything but a slam dunk to make the Hall of Fame. That being said, even if I could travel into the future and find out that Vizquel will make the HOF in 7-8 years, will that change the player he is now or next year? No. Here's a sampling of what Hall of Fame (or Hall of Fame-caliber) shortstops did in their Age 38 season (OPS+ in parenthesis):
Luis Aparicio, 1972: .257/.299/.351 (89)
Dave Bancoft, 1928: .277/.331/.332 (66)
Ernie Banks, 1969: .253/.309/.416 (92)*
Barry Larkin, 2002: .245/.305/.367 (71)
Rabbit Maranville, 1930: .281/.344/.367 (74)
Pee Wee Reese, 1957: .224/.306/.248 (46)
Ozzie Smith, 1993: .288/.337/.356 (88)
Honus Wagner, 1912: .324/.395/.496 (145)
Bobby Wallace, 1912: .241/.332/.316 (89)
*As a first baseman
All of those listed above posted an OPS+ below their career average except for Wagner.
As far as the "You don't let a Hall of Famer leave" argument is concerned, I'll just say two words: Roberto Alomar.
Point: The Indians owe Vizquel for staying.
Counterpoint: The Indians haven't exactly underpaid for Vizquel's services in recent years. Vizquel's most recent contract extension paid him $15M over the past two seasons. In today's economic climate, that's overpaying.
Point: If the Indians don't bring back Vizquel, I'm not going back to the Jake again.
Counterpoint: That's nice.
Point: Vizquel is being kicked to the curbed because of Dolan's penny-pinching ways.
Counterpoint: This may be true to some extent, but I don't think bringing Vizquel back would be such a good idea regardless of the Indians' payroll, for reasons mentioned above. If the Indians had a $70M payroll and paid Vizquel $5M while Jhonny Peralta rotted in the minors, I'd be ticked off. Until Shapiro traded Peralta for a LOOGY in July, when I'd be really ticked off. Shapiro can't control the teams' payroll, but the fact that he has $45M instead of $70M to work with makes him less likely to keep indulgences like Vizquel around.
Sunday, October 24, 2004
The Hand-Wringing Begins
I just saw this gem from a "Hey Hoynsie!" column:
Frankly I don't want to go over whether or not Peralta is better than Vizquel. I'm sure some of you who are reading this feels like Vizquel has another year or two left. And that's fine.
But I would think we've seen enough of what goes on in baseball to not fall in love with a player to the point where the love of a player trumps the love of a team. That's what happens when you're a fan of a middle-market team; you're going to see players leave who you don't necessarily want to leave. However, with this Vizquel situation, I think it goes deeper than that; we've elevated Omar so much as a community that he's become something that he's not. If the Indians lose Vizquel, it might hurt the team (I don't think it will), but not nearly as much Belle or Ramirez or Thome leaving hurt it. The fact that some fans are willing to give up their season tickets because their favorite player is leaving, despite the improvement of the team on the whole, despite the fact that Dolan is finally willing to spend more money, mystifies me. Yeah, it's your money, and you can do with it what you want. But I just don't get this mindset at all.
For the final time, please root for the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. That's what I thought Indians fans have learned, especially in the past 7-8 seasons.
Q: I have been a loyal Indians fan for 46 years. From sitting in the obstructed view, straight-A student seats in the old stadium to club seats at the Jake, I have faithfully attended Tribe games.
But this latest deplorable decision not to sign Omar Vizquel is too much to bear . . . Not to sign him immediately and make it possible for this amazing ballplayer to retire as a Cleveland Indian when the time comes is unforgivable.
If Omar does not come back to Jacobs Field, then neither will this once loyal Indians fan. - Eva Webster, Solon.
A: Hey, Eva: I can't tell you how many e-mails I've received just like yours. I can't remember this kind of response when the Indians lost other big-name players such as Albert Belle, Robbie Alomar, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez.
It shows you what kind of hold Vizquel has on the community. Maybe the front office will listen to you and others. Maybe owner Larry Dolan will expand the budget so that GM Mark Shapiro can improve the club and keep Vizquel. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Frankly I don't want to go over whether or not Peralta is better than Vizquel. I'm sure some of you who are reading this feels like Vizquel has another year or two left. And that's fine.
But I would think we've seen enough of what goes on in baseball to not fall in love with a player to the point where the love of a player trumps the love of a team. That's what happens when you're a fan of a middle-market team; you're going to see players leave who you don't necessarily want to leave. However, with this Vizquel situation, I think it goes deeper than that; we've elevated Omar so much as a community that he's become something that he's not. If the Indians lose Vizquel, it might hurt the team (I don't think it will), but not nearly as much Belle or Ramirez or Thome leaving hurt it. The fact that some fans are willing to give up their season tickets because their favorite player is leaving, despite the improvement of the team on the whole, despite the fact that Dolan is finally willing to spend more money, mystifies me. Yeah, it's your money, and you can do with it what you want. But I just don't get this mindset at all.
For the final time, please root for the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. That's what I thought Indians fans have learned, especially in the past 7-8 seasons.
Player Reviews: Under Contract
This is actually a really short list; Only four Indians (five counting the recently re-signed Bob Howry) have 2005 contracts. That's pretty amazing.
3B Aaron Boone - Age 31
2003 Salary: $3.7M
2003 EQA: .281 for Cincinnati, .255 for New York (AL)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($3.0M); team option for 2006 ($4.5M with various bonuses)
Now that Boone has been splashed all over sports shows to celebrate his 2003 ALCS-winning home run, let's try to separate fact from mystique.
Before coming to the Yankees, Aaron Boone was a pretty nice player for the Cincinnati Reds; his EQA only dipped below average in 1999 (.256) and 2002 (.259). He's a very good defensive third basemen, has some speed, and will hit for decent power. Assuming Boone is in playing shape by April and puts up career-average numbers, Boone for $3M is a pretty good investment. The side effect of Boone's signing is that it will probably force Casey Blake to move to second base, a position he's never played before. If Boone was completely healthy, I would think that he'd be a better fit at second than Blake, but turning the double play isn't exactly the best thing for a player coming off two knee surgeries. Monetarily, signing Boone might actually save the Indians some money; Boone will probably make less than Belliard will make in arbitration, plus the team can trade Belly for something useful. Offensively, Boone/Blake is a bit better than Blake/Belliard, but not that much. Defensively, it might be a wash depending how Blake takes to second base; if Casey can impersonate Mark Bellhorn defensively, things should work out OK. I guess yet another side effect of the signing is that Jhonny Peralta can stay at short for the time being, pushing Brandon Phillips into a utility role and making John McDonald look for employment elsewhere.
As you can see there's a lot of variables at work here, and I don't really know how it's going to work out. But that the Indians have actually started to spend money on relatively good players again is a step in the right direction as far as the rebuild is concerned. And that Boone chose the Indians because he believes in the future of the team is a nice shot in the arm for the organization's stature among possible free agents this winter.
OF Matt Lawton - Age 32
2004 Salary: $7.25M
2004 EQA: .274 (.277/.366/.421)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 (~$7.5M)
The Indians finally got a healthy Matt Lawton in 2004, and he posted numbers pretty much in line with his career averages. That he was paid $7.25M to do so is a lingering effect of Shapiro's giddy offseason spending following the 2001 season. Still, he's the most proven quantity the Indians have in the outfield right now, so unless the perfect salary swap presents itself this winter, Lawton should be playing either right or left field for the Indians next year. He's an underrated leadoff hitter, and can still steal a base, so it's not like he's dead weight on the roster. Looking at his defensive numbers, he actually looks pretty average, believe it or not.
LHSP C.C. Sabathia - Age 23
2004 Salary $2.7M
2004 VORP: 40.2
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($4.5M); team option for 2006 ($7.0M)
First, the bad news: Sabathia didn't pitch well at all after tweaking his bicep before the All-Star Break. His ERA after the ASB was 5.12.
Now, the good news. Sabathia's stuff didn't seem to suffer that much, and he pitched better in Saptember, posting a 3.71 ERA.
Looking at Sabathia's 2004 as a whole, you don't see much deviation in his peripheral numbers, like H/9 or SO/9, etc. He's stayed healthy in his first four seasons, which is a minor miracle, and although the probability that he'll become that top-notch starter has gone down, there isn't much wrong with the pitcher is today. Yes, he needs to shed some weight, and his mechanics have always been a concern, but overall Sabathia is a very valuable starter that will probably be the team's titular ace over the next two seasons.
LHRP Scott Sauerbeck - Age 32
2003 Salary: $1.556M
2003 VORP: 4.9 with Pittsburgh, -2.7 with Boston
Contract Status: Signed through 2005
Sauerbeck's shoulder was a mess after arriving in Boston, so take the Boston stats with a grain of salt. I've gone over Sauerbeck just recently, so I'll spare you any repetitious remark on the left-hander.
3B Aaron Boone - Age 31
2003 Salary: $3.7M
2003 EQA: .281 for Cincinnati, .255 for New York (AL)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($3.0M); team option for 2006 ($4.5M with various bonuses)
Now that Boone has been splashed all over sports shows to celebrate his 2003 ALCS-winning home run, let's try to separate fact from mystique.
Before coming to the Yankees, Aaron Boone was a pretty nice player for the Cincinnati Reds; his EQA only dipped below average in 1999 (.256) and 2002 (.259). He's a very good defensive third basemen, has some speed, and will hit for decent power. Assuming Boone is in playing shape by April and puts up career-average numbers, Boone for $3M is a pretty good investment. The side effect of Boone's signing is that it will probably force Casey Blake to move to second base, a position he's never played before. If Boone was completely healthy, I would think that he'd be a better fit at second than Blake, but turning the double play isn't exactly the best thing for a player coming off two knee surgeries. Monetarily, signing Boone might actually save the Indians some money; Boone will probably make less than Belliard will make in arbitration, plus the team can trade Belly for something useful. Offensively, Boone/Blake is a bit better than Blake/Belliard, but not that much. Defensively, it might be a wash depending how Blake takes to second base; if Casey can impersonate Mark Bellhorn defensively, things should work out OK. I guess yet another side effect of the signing is that Jhonny Peralta can stay at short for the time being, pushing Brandon Phillips into a utility role and making John McDonald look for employment elsewhere.
As you can see there's a lot of variables at work here, and I don't really know how it's going to work out. But that the Indians have actually started to spend money on relatively good players again is a step in the right direction as far as the rebuild is concerned. And that Boone chose the Indians because he believes in the future of the team is a nice shot in the arm for the organization's stature among possible free agents this winter.
OF Matt Lawton - Age 32
2004 Salary: $7.25M
2004 EQA: .274 (.277/.366/.421)
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 (~$7.5M)
The Indians finally got a healthy Matt Lawton in 2004, and he posted numbers pretty much in line with his career averages. That he was paid $7.25M to do so is a lingering effect of Shapiro's giddy offseason spending following the 2001 season. Still, he's the most proven quantity the Indians have in the outfield right now, so unless the perfect salary swap presents itself this winter, Lawton should be playing either right or left field for the Indians next year. He's an underrated leadoff hitter, and can still steal a base, so it's not like he's dead weight on the roster. Looking at his defensive numbers, he actually looks pretty average, believe it or not.
LHSP C.C. Sabathia - Age 23
2004 Salary $2.7M
2004 VORP: 40.2
Contract Status: Signed through 2005 ($4.5M); team option for 2006 ($7.0M)
First, the bad news: Sabathia didn't pitch well at all after tweaking his bicep before the All-Star Break. His ERA after the ASB was 5.12.
Now, the good news. Sabathia's stuff didn't seem to suffer that much, and he pitched better in Saptember, posting a 3.71 ERA.
Looking at Sabathia's 2004 as a whole, you don't see much deviation in his peripheral numbers, like H/9 or SO/9, etc. He's stayed healthy in his first four seasons, which is a minor miracle, and although the probability that he'll become that top-notch starter has gone down, there isn't much wrong with the pitcher is today. Yes, he needs to shed some weight, and his mechanics have always been a concern, but overall Sabathia is a very valuable starter that will probably be the team's titular ace over the next two seasons.
LHRP Scott Sauerbeck - Age 32
2003 Salary: $1.556M
2003 VORP: 4.9 with Pittsburgh, -2.7 with Boston
Contract Status: Signed through 2005
Sauerbeck's shoulder was a mess after arriving in Boston, so take the Boston stats with a grain of salt. I've gone over Sauerbeck just recently, so I'll spare you any repetitious remark on the left-hander.
Friday, October 22, 2004
Player Reviews: The Arbitration Eligibles
My original goal was to have this done before the completion of the World Series, so I'll get this going a little faster:
2B Ronnie Belliard - Age 28
2004 Salary: $1.1M
2004 EQA: .265 (.282/.348/.426)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2005)
He's an interesting player. Belliard has several nice abilities: he can mash left-handed pitching, he can turn double plays very well, and he has a good arm. Mark Shapiro lost out on Todd Walker last winter and ended up with Belliard, who was a much better player this season. Now Shapiro has an interesting decision to make. Belliard is still only arbitration-eligible, but will get a substantial bump in salary. There really aren't that many good 2B options out there in the free agent market, and several teams are going to need a second baseman. This makes, in my estimation, Belliard a real nice trading chip. If Shapiro can turn Belliard's career year into something useful, like a starting pitcher or a bullpen arm, he should go for it. Belliard's defense is ok, as far as I can tell; he plays the deepest second base in the majors, and the mainstream defensive stats say he's pretty average.
3B Casey Blake - Age 31
2004 Salary: $352,400
2004 EQA: .278 (.271/.354/.486)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2007)
Blake was originally slated to take over for Ben Broussard at first base next season, but since Broussard's nice second-half showing, he's going left on the defensive spectrum to second base. Of course the big question is whether Blake can play there, and I don't think we'll know that until next spring. What we do know is that Blake should be back in some capacity; he's turned out to become a really nice pickup for the Indians, posting a very quiet .840 OPS this season. There was a time when I thought Blake would be a low-budget Joe Randa, but Randa never had as productive a season as Blake just had. If he can actually play second base, he'll become that much more valuable. But that's a big if.
RHRP Bob Howry - Age 31
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 15.8
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible [Just signed to a one-year contract]
Chalk Howry up to the Indians' burgoning rehab program. Howry was signed to a minor-league deal coming off arm surgery, and he came back after the All-Star Break and simply became the team's best reliever. Re-signing him is a pretty big no-brainer for the Indians; he has the coveted Proven CloserTM mantle so he could step and close if needed, and if the Indians keep Wickman or acquire a closer elsewhere, he'll be pretty good in setup.
IF John McDonald - Age 30
2004 Salary: $324,400
2004 EQA: .194 (.204/.237/.344)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligilble (FA in 2007)
McDonald had the misfortune of being drafted by an American League team. In the AL, defensive specialists like McDonald are used sparingly, and with John's offensive ineptitude, isn't going to be any kind of pinch-hitter. He should find a home in the National League, where double switches and the pitchers' spot will allow for him to get more playing time. He's either going to be traded or non-tendered; I'm betting on the latter.
RHRP David Riske - Age 27
2004 Salary: $1.025M
2004 VORP: 22.0
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2006)
Riske's 2004 has to be seen a step backwards from his stellar 2003 campaign, but he made enough progress in the last couple months of this season to warrant a return. He shouldn't get a big bump in salary, even with arbitration. Now that Riske seems closing-adverse, he should settle down into a 7th/8th inning role for the forseeable future.
RHSP Jake Westbrook - Age 27
2004 Salary: $925,000
2004 VORP: 54.4 (1st among Indians starters)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eliglble (FA in 2006)
Jake is going to receive a very large bump in salary after what he did this season. You shouldn't expect this every year from Westbrook; as with most ground-ballers, Westbrook allows a lot more balls to be put in play than your typical starter. That being said, the Indians should have a nice 3rd starter for the next couple seasons. It should be interesting to see if the Indians take this opportunity to sign Westbrook to a long-term contract, or if they are a bit leery of locking up a player with one good season following three mediocre ones.
2B Ronnie Belliard - Age 28
2004 Salary: $1.1M
2004 EQA: .265 (.282/.348/.426)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2005)
He's an interesting player. Belliard has several nice abilities: he can mash left-handed pitching, he can turn double plays very well, and he has a good arm. Mark Shapiro lost out on Todd Walker last winter and ended up with Belliard, who was a much better player this season. Now Shapiro has an interesting decision to make. Belliard is still only arbitration-eligible, but will get a substantial bump in salary. There really aren't that many good 2B options out there in the free agent market, and several teams are going to need a second baseman. This makes, in my estimation, Belliard a real nice trading chip. If Shapiro can turn Belliard's career year into something useful, like a starting pitcher or a bullpen arm, he should go for it. Belliard's defense is ok, as far as I can tell; he plays the deepest second base in the majors, and the mainstream defensive stats say he's pretty average.
3B Casey Blake - Age 31
2004 Salary: $352,400
2004 EQA: .278 (.271/.354/.486)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2007)
Blake was originally slated to take over for Ben Broussard at first base next season, but since Broussard's nice second-half showing, he's going left on the defensive spectrum to second base. Of course the big question is whether Blake can play there, and I don't think we'll know that until next spring. What we do know is that Blake should be back in some capacity; he's turned out to become a really nice pickup for the Indians, posting a very quiet .840 OPS this season. There was a time when I thought Blake would be a low-budget Joe Randa, but Randa never had as productive a season as Blake just had. If he can actually play second base, he'll become that much more valuable. But that's a big if.
RHRP Bob Howry - Age 31
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 15.8
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible [Just signed to a one-year contract]
Chalk Howry up to the Indians' burgoning rehab program. Howry was signed to a minor-league deal coming off arm surgery, and he came back after the All-Star Break and simply became the team's best reliever. Re-signing him is a pretty big no-brainer for the Indians; he has the coveted Proven CloserTM mantle so he could step and close if needed, and if the Indians keep Wickman or acquire a closer elsewhere, he'll be pretty good in setup.
IF John McDonald - Age 30
2004 Salary: $324,400
2004 EQA: .194 (.204/.237/.344)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligilble (FA in 2007)
McDonald had the misfortune of being drafted by an American League team. In the AL, defensive specialists like McDonald are used sparingly, and with John's offensive ineptitude, isn't going to be any kind of pinch-hitter. He should find a home in the National League, where double switches and the pitchers' spot will allow for him to get more playing time. He's either going to be traded or non-tendered; I'm betting on the latter.
RHRP David Riske - Age 27
2004 Salary: $1.025M
2004 VORP: 22.0
Contract Status: Arbitration Eligible (FA in 2006)
Riske's 2004 has to be seen a step backwards from his stellar 2003 campaign, but he made enough progress in the last couple months of this season to warrant a return. He shouldn't get a big bump in salary, even with arbitration. Now that Riske seems closing-adverse, he should settle down into a 7th/8th inning role for the forseeable future.
RHSP Jake Westbrook - Age 27
2004 Salary: $925,000
2004 VORP: 54.4 (1st among Indians starters)
Contract Status: Arbitration Eliglble (FA in 2006)
Jake is going to receive a very large bump in salary after what he did this season. You shouldn't expect this every year from Westbrook; as with most ground-ballers, Westbrook allows a lot more balls to be put in play than your typical starter. That being said, the Indians should have a nice 3rd starter for the next couple seasons. It should be interesting to see if the Indians take this opportunity to sign Westbrook to a long-term contract, or if they are a bit leery of locking up a player with one good season following three mediocre ones.
Grover's New Job
The Seattle Mariners have chosen Mike Hargrove to be their new manager, signing him to a three-year contract.
It's nice to see him get another chance; albeit with a team that's a couple years away from contention. Hargrove was the fall guy after the 1999 ALDS loss, and maybe I'm one of the few fans out there that thought he was given a raw deal by John Hart.Yes, his LaRussan bullpen moves frustrated me at times, but overall I was impressed how he could deal with all the egos that inhabited the clubhouse in those days and get results out of the talent given him. Of course, it won't matter who's managing the Mariners if GM Bill Bavasi doesn't improve the talent base, but Hargrove is a nice safe pick for them.
It's nice to see him get another chance; albeit with a team that's a couple years away from contention. Hargrove was the fall guy after the 1999 ALDS loss, and maybe I'm one of the few fans out there that thought he was given a raw deal by John Hart.Yes, his LaRussan bullpen moves frustrated me at times, but overall I was impressed how he could deal with all the egos that inhabited the clubhouse in those days and get results out of the talent given him. Of course, it won't matter who's managing the Mariners if GM Bill Bavasi doesn't improve the talent base, but Hargrove is a nice safe pick for them.
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Player Reviews: Scott Elarton and Rick White
RHSP Scott Elarton - Age 28
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 19.2
Contract Status: Free Agent
What you saw this season from Elarton is probably the best you're going to get from him. He's a flyball pitcher, and that's not necessarily a horrible thing for someone who pitches in Jacobs Field; the Jake has been a fairly neutral park for home runs over its first 10 seasons. Unfortunately for Scott, his previous stop was Coors Field, which offered the double whammy of flattening his curveball and turning lazy flyouts into home runs. Does his time in Coors excuse all his bad numbers? Absolutely not; but it appears that Elarton can be an acceptable 5th starter now that he's regained at least some of his confidence. Contrary to what I thought about him when the Indians signed him, he should be brought back if the price is right. Given that the Indians gave Jason Bere and Jeff D'Amico $1M contracts with worse credentials, Elarton's worth at least that much.
RHRP Rick White - Age 35
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 2.7
Contract Status: Free Agent
This is a situation where you say thanks to White for being a replacement-level reliever when you didn't have any in your bullpen, but part ways because he's a replacement-level reliever. The term that's thrown around describing these types of guys are "fungible," meaning easily replaceable. Of course there's a problem if Mark Shapiro can't get any better relievers than White next season, but that would be more an issue with Shapiro's performance than with White's.
Next up: Arbitration-eligible players
Site Update
I've finally given up constructing a player page for each player in the organization; now when you click on a player, you'll be taken to their page at The Baseball Cube. I've also linked to their draft page, as you can access every single one of the Indians' drafts via one page. I will however continue to update the Depth Chart, Transactions Page, and Options Page myself.
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 19.2
Contract Status: Free Agent
What you saw this season from Elarton is probably the best you're going to get from him. He's a flyball pitcher, and that's not necessarily a horrible thing for someone who pitches in Jacobs Field; the Jake has been a fairly neutral park for home runs over its first 10 seasons. Unfortunately for Scott, his previous stop was Coors Field, which offered the double whammy of flattening his curveball and turning lazy flyouts into home runs. Does his time in Coors excuse all his bad numbers? Absolutely not; but it appears that Elarton can be an acceptable 5th starter now that he's regained at least some of his confidence. Contrary to what I thought about him when the Indians signed him, he should be brought back if the price is right. Given that the Indians gave Jason Bere and Jeff D'Amico $1M contracts with worse credentials, Elarton's worth at least that much.
RHRP Rick White - Age 35
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 2.7
Contract Status: Free Agent
This is a situation where you say thanks to White for being a replacement-level reliever when you didn't have any in your bullpen, but part ways because he's a replacement-level reliever. The term that's thrown around describing these types of guys are "fungible," meaning easily replaceable. Of course there's a problem if Mark Shapiro can't get any better relievers than White next season, but that would be more an issue with Shapiro's performance than with White's.
Next up: Arbitration-eligible players
Site Update
I've finally given up constructing a player page for each player in the organization; now when you click on a player, you'll be taken to their page at The Baseball Cube. I've also linked to their draft page, as you can access every single one of the Indians' drafts via one page. I will however continue to update the Depth Chart, Transactions Page, and Options Page myself.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Carlos Beltran...
Uh, he's pretty good.
It's nice to see Beltran finally getting the national recognition that most fans in the AL Central thought he deserved. If Beltran isn't a true five-tool player, I don't know who is; he's simply an amazing talent.
And he'll become a very very rich man in about a month. He's one of four free agents who the Indians won't even think about signing, the others being Adrian Beltre, Pedro Martinez, and Carl Pavano.
It's nice to see Beltran finally getting the national recognition that most fans in the AL Central thought he deserved. If Beltran isn't a true five-tool player, I don't know who is; he's simply an amazing talent.
And he'll become a very very rich man in about a month. He's one of four free agents who the Indians won't even think about signing, the others being Adrian Beltre, Pedro Martinez, and Carl Pavano.
Saturday, October 16, 2004
Player Reviews: Tim Laker and Bob Wickman
C Tim Laker - Age 34
2004 Salary: $450,000
2004 EQA: .194 (.214/.262/.308)
Contract Status: Free Agent
In 1992, his rookie season, Tim Laker pinch-ran for Gary Carter in the Hall of Famer's last game. Since then, he's had the career of a backup catcher, bouncing from organization to organization. After arriving in Cleveland, he's been a backup to first Josh Bard, then Victor Martinez. Now that both are healthy and not going anywhere, there's no room for him on this team, and he'll probably find work elsewhere; besides, who can resist the allure of a veteren backup catcher?
RHRP Bob Wickman - Age 35
2004 Salary: $5.3M
2004 VORP: 6.7 (4.25 ERA)
Contract Status: Free Agent
On November 5th, 2001, the Indians re-signed Wickman to a three-year extension. At the time, not much was said about the re-signing, since Wickman was coming off two pretty good years as the team's closer. But later that season, Wickman injured his elbow and missed essentially two years recovering from arm surgery. Suddenly that contract was lumped in with other bad deals (Lawton Gutierrez) as evidence against Shapiro's "transitioning" plan. Wickman finally appears healthy, but now that three-year extension has run its course. Bob now is pondering retirement, and he does so, the Indians are pretty much forced to go out and get a closer. If he decides to play another season, he would be a stopgap (aren't most closers stopgaps?) until the team finds an internal solution.
Wickman isn't a typical closer; he relies on his sinkers instead fastballs to get hitters out. Wickman is at his best when he throws strikes, because he'll allow his share of base hits. Now that the label of "proven closer" has been planted indelibly on him, Wicky should have a job waiting for him as long as his arm is all right and he's collecting some 30-odd saves a season; never mind his ERA.
2004 Salary: $450,000
2004 EQA: .194 (.214/.262/.308)
Contract Status: Free Agent
In 1992, his rookie season, Tim Laker pinch-ran for Gary Carter in the Hall of Famer's last game. Since then, he's had the career of a backup catcher, bouncing from organization to organization. After arriving in Cleveland, he's been a backup to first Josh Bard, then Victor Martinez. Now that both are healthy and not going anywhere, there's no room for him on this team, and he'll probably find work elsewhere; besides, who can resist the allure of a veteren backup catcher?
RHRP Bob Wickman - Age 35
2004 Salary: $5.3M
2004 VORP: 6.7 (4.25 ERA)
Contract Status: Free Agent
On November 5th, 2001, the Indians re-signed Wickman to a three-year extension. At the time, not much was said about the re-signing, since Wickman was coming off two pretty good years as the team's closer. But later that season, Wickman injured his elbow and missed essentially two years recovering from arm surgery. Suddenly that contract was lumped in with other bad deals (Lawton Gutierrez) as evidence against Shapiro's "transitioning" plan. Wickman finally appears healthy, but now that three-year extension has run its course. Bob now is pondering retirement, and he does so, the Indians are pretty much forced to go out and get a closer. If he decides to play another season, he would be a stopgap (aren't most closers stopgaps?) until the team finds an internal solution.
Wickman isn't a typical closer; he relies on his sinkers instead fastballs to get hitters out. Wickman is at his best when he throws strikes, because he'll allow his share of base hits. Now that the label of "proven closer" has been planted indelibly on him, Wicky should have a job waiting for him as long as his arm is all right and he's collecting some 30-odd saves a season; never mind his ERA.
Player Reviews: Omar Vizquel
I'm starting my player reviews with players that may not be around much longer.
SS Omar Vizquel - Age: 37
2004 Salary: $7.50M
2004 EQA: .262 (.291/.353/.388)
Contract Status: Free Agent
"I ain't what I used to be, but who the hell is?"
-Dizzy Dean
Omar has become an icon in Cleveland, especially in the past couple of years. During the magical run beginning in 1995, Vizquel was simply a small cog in a large machine, the slick-fielding shortstop who a could steal a base and bunt for a base hit. As Belle and Murray, Ramirez, Lofton and Alomar, and finally Thome left the franchise, fans concentrated their admiration on Vizquel, partly becuase of his smile and his defense, but also because he was the remnant of those Indians of renown, those teams which won 6 division titles and two American League pennants. But wistful remembrances can't affect the future.
While Vizquel probably has a couple more season in him, he's become a different player in the last couple seasons. No longer is his defense Gold-Glove worthy, and a lot of his value has come from the offensive side of the ledger, posting an EQA of .262 this season. Peralta, at age 22, posted a translated EQA of .256 in Buffalo. The difference between Vizquel and Peralta isn't enough to justify re-signing Vizquel; even if you assume that Vizquel at age 38 is the better fielder, Peralta's offensive positives and salary make Omar (gasp!) expendible. Had the two players in question been between a similar player like Mike Bordick and Jhonny Peralta, would the outcry be as loud? Please don't take this as a slam on Vizquel; he's been a very nice player for the Indians for a long time. But it's time to move on.
SS Omar Vizquel - Age: 37
2004 Salary: $7.50M
2004 EQA: .262 (.291/.353/.388)
Contract Status: Free Agent
"I ain't what I used to be, but who the hell is?"
-Dizzy Dean
Omar has become an icon in Cleveland, especially in the past couple of years. During the magical run beginning in 1995, Vizquel was simply a small cog in a large machine, the slick-fielding shortstop who a could steal a base and bunt for a base hit. As Belle and Murray, Ramirez, Lofton and Alomar, and finally Thome left the franchise, fans concentrated their admiration on Vizquel, partly becuase of his smile and his defense, but also because he was the remnant of those Indians of renown, those teams which won 6 division titles and two American League pennants. But wistful remembrances can't affect the future.
While Vizquel probably has a couple more season in him, he's become a different player in the last couple seasons. No longer is his defense Gold-Glove worthy, and a lot of his value has come from the offensive side of the ledger, posting an EQA of .262 this season. Peralta, at age 22, posted a translated EQA of .256 in Buffalo. The difference between Vizquel and Peralta isn't enough to justify re-signing Vizquel; even if you assume that Vizquel at age 38 is the better fielder, Peralta's offensive positives and salary make Omar (gasp!) expendible. Had the two players in question been between a similar player like Mike Bordick and Jhonny Peralta, would the outcry be as loud? Please don't take this as a slam on Vizquel; he's been a very nice player for the Indians for a long time. But it's time to move on.
Friday, October 15, 2004
More Transactions
Declined the 2005 Option of RHRP Bob Wickman ($5M)
Like Vizquel, this doesn't do anything to damage the chance of Wicky coming back. I think the biggest issue right now is whether Wickman wants to play another season or not. If not, the Indians will explore some of the other closer options, including guys like Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, and John Smoltz. If you've read my blog previously, I don't place much stock in spending a ton of money on the bullpen. That being said, if Benitez can be had for $3M, I think the Indians would be crazy not to go for it. The good thing is that a lot of the larger market teams have closers under contract, so the Indians might find a couple bargains via free agency.
Outrighted IF Lou Merloni and C Tim Laker; Both elected free agency
Laker is gone, but Merloni will most likely be back. Wedge made silk out of a sow's ear platooning Broussard and Merloni at first base most of the season, but now that Josh Phelps is around, Merloni should be able to go back to being a nice backup infielder. If Casey Blake does in fact play second base next season, Merloni might fit into an offense/defense platoon at second. Maybe he'll be Jake Westbrook's personal second baseman.
Like Vizquel, this doesn't do anything to damage the chance of Wicky coming back. I think the biggest issue right now is whether Wickman wants to play another season or not. If not, the Indians will explore some of the other closer options, including guys like Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, and John Smoltz. If you've read my blog previously, I don't place much stock in spending a ton of money on the bullpen. That being said, if Benitez can be had for $3M, I think the Indians would be crazy not to go for it. The good thing is that a lot of the larger market teams have closers under contract, so the Indians might find a couple bargains via free agency.
Outrighted IF Lou Merloni and C Tim Laker; Both elected free agency
Laker is gone, but Merloni will most likely be back. Wedge made silk out of a sow's ear platooning Broussard and Merloni at first base most of the season, but now that Josh Phelps is around, Merloni should be able to go back to being a nice backup infielder. If Casey Blake does in fact play second base next season, Merloni might fit into an offense/defense platoon at second. Maybe he'll be Jake Westbrook's personal second baseman.
Transactions
Purchased the Contract of LHRP Scott Sauerbeck
The Indians picked up Sauerbeck earlier this season; he had major shoulder surgery in the winter after no team showed any interest in him. According to this article, Sauerbeck pitched with a torn labrum most of the 2003 season, and injured his rotator cuff after being traded to Boston in July. Given the other left-handed options (or lack of thereof) the Indians have in the bullpen, Sauerbeck looks like a nice low-risk gamble. In 2002, the season before his shoulder injury, Sauerbeck struck out 70 batters in 62.2 innings pitched. He's tougher against left-handed hitters (.201 BAA) than right-handers (.268 BAA), but I think using him strictly as a LOOGY wouldn't be using him efficiently. Unfortunately, if he's the only left-hander in the bullpen next season, Eric Wedge may try to shoehorn him into that role. I don't really like when managers do that; Mike Sciossia found out about that the hard way when he brought in Jarrod Washburn (removing Francisco Rodriguez) to face David Ortiz in this year's ALDS. If a guy has good stuff, it shouldn't really matter who he's facing, barring a really uneven platoon split.
Reinstated RHP Joe Dawley from the 60-day Disabled List; Outrighted him to Buffalo (AAA)
Dawley made two starts for the Indians when the back end of the rotation was a revolving door. He injured his elbow after two starts, although it doesn't look like he's going to have Tommy John surgery. He can become a minor-league free agent shortly, and should be in someone's camp next spring.
Re-signed RHP Kenny Rayborn to a minor-league contract (2005)
Rayborn should spend most of 2005 in Buffalo; he's put up decent numbers in AAA, but his strikeout (4.73) and hit (8.88) ratios don't predict major-league success. He'll be 30 in November.
Released RHP Evan Thomas from Buffalo (AAA)
The Indians picked up Sauerbeck earlier this season; he had major shoulder surgery in the winter after no team showed any interest in him. According to this article, Sauerbeck pitched with a torn labrum most of the 2003 season, and injured his rotator cuff after being traded to Boston in July. Given the other left-handed options (or lack of thereof) the Indians have in the bullpen, Sauerbeck looks like a nice low-risk gamble. In 2002, the season before his shoulder injury, Sauerbeck struck out 70 batters in 62.2 innings pitched. He's tougher against left-handed hitters (.201 BAA) than right-handers (.268 BAA), but I think using him strictly as a LOOGY wouldn't be using him efficiently. Unfortunately, if he's the only left-hander in the bullpen next season, Eric Wedge may try to shoehorn him into that role. I don't really like when managers do that; Mike Sciossia found out about that the hard way when he brought in Jarrod Washburn (removing Francisco Rodriguez) to face David Ortiz in this year's ALDS. If a guy has good stuff, it shouldn't really matter who he's facing, barring a really uneven platoon split.
Reinstated RHP Joe Dawley from the 60-day Disabled List; Outrighted him to Buffalo (AAA)
Dawley made two starts for the Indians when the back end of the rotation was a revolving door. He injured his elbow after two starts, although it doesn't look like he's going to have Tommy John surgery. He can become a minor-league free agent shortly, and should be in someone's camp next spring.
Re-signed RHP Kenny Rayborn to a minor-league contract (2005)
Rayborn should spend most of 2005 in Buffalo; he's put up decent numbers in AAA, but his strikeout (4.73) and hit (8.88) ratios don't predict major-league success. He'll be 30 in November.
Released RHP Evan Thomas from Buffalo (AAA)
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
800x600 Users Rejoice!
I've gone with a semi-liquid layout (the blog shifts to fit your screen size or screen resolution), so those who have had trouble viewing this site at 800X600 pixels before should be able to now. Those who have larger resolutions shouldn't notice anything much at all. As far as browsers go, I think the site looks the best on Mozilla/Firefox and Netscape 6.2 (or later). It looks decent on IE 6.0 as well, so if you have any of those browsers you should be ok. If you are using another browser, let me know how it looks.
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Transactions
Declined the 2005 Option of SS Omar Vizquel ($5M)
This is nothing shocking, and it doesn't really have any impact on whether Vizquel returns. Declining the option means that Vizquel will receive a $1M buyout. The Indians have until December 7th to make a final decision on keeping Omar, but they'll more than likely have made up their minds long before that. Judging by the reactions from both camps following their post-season meeting, I think Vizquel's agent was asking for too much money. Or maybe Shapiro would rather just cut ties now and go with Jhonny Peralta or Brandon Phillips from here on out. Either way, Vizquel is probably playing for somebody else next season. Despite all the hand-wringing that will result from Vizquel's departure, I really don't think the Indians will suffer that much.
This is nothing shocking, and it doesn't really have any impact on whether Vizquel returns. Declining the option means that Vizquel will receive a $1M buyout. The Indians have until December 7th to make a final decision on keeping Omar, but they'll more than likely have made up their minds long before that. Judging by the reactions from both camps following their post-season meeting, I think Vizquel's agent was asking for too much money. Or maybe Shapiro would rather just cut ties now and go with Jhonny Peralta or Brandon Phillips from here on out. Either way, Vizquel is probably playing for somebody else next season. Despite all the hand-wringing that will result from Vizquel's departure, I really don't think the Indians will suffer that much.
Sunday, October 10, 2004
Season In Review: Part 5 of 5
Overall Review
A handy chart summarizing various team measures:
I think it's pretty obvious where the weak spots were. The bullpen was bad in the first half, and the starting pitching was bad in the second half.
In general, this was a .500 team; their Pythagorean record was only a little over one win off from their real record. The rebuilding is pretty much over; the 2004 payroll should be the lowest in the upcoming five-year span, mainly because the Indians have a lot of pre-Arbitration players on the roster. If the team continues to win, payroll should continue to increase, stabilizing somewhere around the $60M plateau in 2006 when most of this years' core players will be starting to get big raises.
As far as the team on the field, there are several areas to address, including a better understanding of how to steal a base. I like Rick Manning as a broadcaster; however, I haven't really liked what he's done as a coach. Now that Lee Mazilli's job appears safe in Baltimore, Eddie Murray should return as the Indians' hitting instructor; that's a good thing. I'm not as sure about Carl Willis, but his big test will come with how he handles a more experienced pitching staff.
This offseason is going to be a big test for Mark Shapiro as well, because he hasn't been in the position to give out multi-year contracts since the winter of 2001-2002, and we know how that turned out. But overall I've been impressed at a lot of his minor moves, including the signing of Casey Blake, Belliard, Howry, Miller, the acquistions of Hafner, Phelps, and the three prospects from Montreal. He made two bad moves last winter in acquiring Jeriome Robertson and Scott Stewart for decent prospects. However, I'm more impressed that he stood by his plan when there were several opportunities to go for broke or cave to fan interests. The fact that he's willing to part ways with Vizquel, even with mainstream fan opposition tells me a lot; making the right move is more important than making the popular move. He was also willing to sign Kaz Tadano after he was blackballed by every team in Japan and a lot of major league clubs. He was willing to make a stand on Milton Bradley, and not respond even when Milton (and his mother) ripped him in the press.
Overall, I really like the organization's health, top to bottom. There aren't really any bad contracts hanging over the club, the farm system is in good shape, and the coaching staff will be entering its third year in 2005. The only thing left to do is to start bringing in some final pieces via free agency, and hopefully that should be enough to make this club a 87-90 win team in 2005. Granted, a lot of things have to go right to do that, but as Branch Rickey once said, "luck is the residue of design."
Up next I'll concentrate on individual players; I'll try to do 1-3 a day, starting this week.
Thoughts? Comments?
A handy chart summarizing various team measures:
| Category | Amount | AL Rank |
| Defensive Efficiency | .6855 | 13th |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.88 | 12th |
| Starter ERA | 4.77 | 5th |
| Runs Scored | 858 | 5th |
| OPS | .795 | 3rd |
I think it's pretty obvious where the weak spots were. The bullpen was bad in the first half, and the starting pitching was bad in the second half.
In general, this was a .500 team; their Pythagorean record was only a little over one win off from their real record. The rebuilding is pretty much over; the 2004 payroll should be the lowest in the upcoming five-year span, mainly because the Indians have a lot of pre-Arbitration players on the roster. If the team continues to win, payroll should continue to increase, stabilizing somewhere around the $60M plateau in 2006 when most of this years' core players will be starting to get big raises.
As far as the team on the field, there are several areas to address, including a better understanding of how to steal a base. I like Rick Manning as a broadcaster; however, I haven't really liked what he's done as a coach. Now that Lee Mazilli's job appears safe in Baltimore, Eddie Murray should return as the Indians' hitting instructor; that's a good thing. I'm not as sure about Carl Willis, but his big test will come with how he handles a more experienced pitching staff.
This offseason is going to be a big test for Mark Shapiro as well, because he hasn't been in the position to give out multi-year contracts since the winter of 2001-2002, and we know how that turned out. But overall I've been impressed at a lot of his minor moves, including the signing of Casey Blake, Belliard, Howry, Miller, the acquistions of Hafner, Phelps, and the three prospects from Montreal. He made two bad moves last winter in acquiring Jeriome Robertson and Scott Stewart for decent prospects. However, I'm more impressed that he stood by his plan when there were several opportunities to go for broke or cave to fan interests. The fact that he's willing to part ways with Vizquel, even with mainstream fan opposition tells me a lot; making the right move is more important than making the popular move. He was also willing to sign Kaz Tadano after he was blackballed by every team in Japan and a lot of major league clubs. He was willing to make a stand on Milton Bradley, and not respond even when Milton (and his mother) ripped him in the press.
Overall, I really like the organization's health, top to bottom. There aren't really any bad contracts hanging over the club, the farm system is in good shape, and the coaching staff will be entering its third year in 2005. The only thing left to do is to start bringing in some final pieces via free agency, and hopefully that should be enough to make this club a 87-90 win team in 2005. Granted, a lot of things have to go right to do that, but as Branch Rickey once said, "luck is the residue of design."
Up next I'll concentrate on individual players; I'll try to do 1-3 a day, starting this week.
Thoughts? Comments?
Saturday, October 09, 2004
Season In Review: Part 4 of 5
The Offense
There really isn't much of anything negative to say about the 2004 offense, other than they didn't hit a lot of home runs.
In my mind, there were exactly two disappointments; Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut. Escobar is now property of the Chicago White Sox, and Gerut at least justified playing time before his knee injury by playing an excellent right field.
Breakout years: Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Coco Crisp
What Hafner did in 2004 astounds me even more now that I look more closely at the numbers he put up. Only Vladamir Guerrero, Melvin Mora, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada had a higher VORP among AL position players. He might even finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, despite playing for a team that was out of the race by September 1st. I'll get into Hafner and what kind of career I think he can have later on in my player reviews, but suffice to say he's simply a fantastic hitter. Victor Martinez bucked the recent trend of catching prospects who didn't live up of to the advanced billing. With Josh Bard being a much better backup catcher than Tim Laker, Eric Wedge should be able to keep Martinez fresher down the stretch next year. Coco Crisp really surprised me; although I'm a lot less sure of him than I am with Hafner and Martinez, he has a lot of interesting facets to his game, especially his surprising power, that has piqued my interest.
Comeback years: Matt Lawton, Ronnie Belliard, and Omar Vizquel
Lawton and Vizquel simply got healthy, and gave the Indians generally what was expected out of them. Vizquel has somewhat compensated for the decline of range in the field by becoming a better hitter at the plate. Lawton faded after the All-Star Break, but still ended the season with numbers in line with his career averages. Belliard was the big surprise; in a down year for second basemen, he was one of the best in the American League this season.
Marked Improvement: Casey Blake, Ben Broussard
Blake, who was the best hitter on the 2003 Indians (which wasn't saying much), improved pretty much every aspect of his offensive game. Ben Broussard, who was in real danger of being kicked to the curb after a couple simply awful stretches early in the season, turned it on after the All-Star Break, one of the few players to do so. Now he's played himself into a job next season.
The Overall Approach
The 2004 Indians scored runs through hitting a ton of doubles and drawing a ton of walks, an approach the sabermetrician in me really likes. While I don't like to give pitching or hitting coaches too much credit (or blame) for player performance, the drastic team-wide improvement has to be in some part due to hitting instructor Eddie Murray. Another big reason has to be the fact a lot of the main cogs were second year players, and had finally started to feel comfortable in the majors. And of course a huge reason is that the lineup was generally kept intact for the whole year; before September, only Lou Merloni went on the Disabled List before September.
2005 Outlook
Omar Vizquel and Ronnie Belliard are probably on their way out, with Aaron Boone and Jhonny Peralta the likely candidates to take their places on the roster. Grady Sizemore will probably get a full-time job somewhere in the outfield, and Josh Phelps will probably replace Lou Merloni as the 1B/DH against left-handed pitchers, leaving Merloni (if he returns) to be more of a utility guy (If Blake ends up as the second baseman, Merloni might spot him against a tough left-hander). The offensive vacuums of John McDonald and Tim Laker will be replaced by Merloni (or Brandon Phillips) and Josh Bard. Obviously, there's a much greater chance of offensive regression to the mean as far as runs scored next season, but the additions of Phelps (over a full season), Peralta, and Boone should improve the team's power production. With pitching being more of a concern this offseason, the offense is going to be counted on to at least stay constant; hopefully, with an improved pitching staff, the offense won't have to "win" as many games as this past season.
| Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | HR | EQA | VORP |
| Matt Lawton | 680 | .277 | .366 | .421 | 25 | 20 | .274 | 30.6 |
| Casey Blake | 667 | .271 | .354 | .486 | 36 | 28 | .278 | 38.9 |
| Ronnie Belliard | 663 | .282 | .348 | .426 | 48 | 12 | .265 | 39.5 |
| Omar Vizquel | 631 | .291 | .353 | .388 | 28 | 7 | .262 | 35.5 |
| Victor Martinez | 591 | .283 | .359 | .492 | 38 | 23 | .285 | 49.5 |
| Travis Hafner | 573 | .311 | .410 | .583 | 41 | 28 | .325 | 74.1 |
| Jody Gerut | 545 | .252 | .334 | .405 | 31 | 11 | .256 | 15.2 |
| Coco Crisp | 529 | .297 | .344 | .446 | 24 | 15 | .266 | 27.1 |
| Ben Broussard | 484 | .275 | .370 | .488 | 28 | 17 | .289 | 35.4 |
| Lou Merloni | 210 | .289 | .343 | .426 | 12 | 4 | .262 | 8.5 |
| Alex Escobar | 176 | .211 | .318 | .309 | 8 | 1 | .223 | -3.0 |
| Grady Sizemore | 159 | .246 | .333 | .406 | 6 | 4 | NA | 4.9 |
| Tim Laker | 126 | .214 | .262 | .308 | 2 | 3 | .194 | -3.7 |
| John McDonald | 97 | .204 | .237 | .344 | 5 | 2 | .194 | -2.6 |
| Josh Phelps | 80 | .303 | .338 | .579 | 6 | 5 | .295 | 7.5 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 54 | .220 | .278 | .380 | 2 | 2 | .221 | -0.6 |
There really isn't much of anything negative to say about the 2004 offense, other than they didn't hit a lot of home runs.
In my mind, there were exactly two disappointments; Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut. Escobar is now property of the Chicago White Sox, and Gerut at least justified playing time before his knee injury by playing an excellent right field.
Breakout years: Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Coco Crisp
What Hafner did in 2004 astounds me even more now that I look more closely at the numbers he put up. Only Vladamir Guerrero, Melvin Mora, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada had a higher VORP among AL position players. He might even finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, despite playing for a team that was out of the race by September 1st. I'll get into Hafner and what kind of career I think he can have later on in my player reviews, but suffice to say he's simply a fantastic hitter. Victor Martinez bucked the recent trend of catching prospects who didn't live up of to the advanced billing. With Josh Bard being a much better backup catcher than Tim Laker, Eric Wedge should be able to keep Martinez fresher down the stretch next year. Coco Crisp really surprised me; although I'm a lot less sure of him than I am with Hafner and Martinez, he has a lot of interesting facets to his game, especially his surprising power, that has piqued my interest.
Comeback years: Matt Lawton, Ronnie Belliard, and Omar Vizquel
Lawton and Vizquel simply got healthy, and gave the Indians generally what was expected out of them. Vizquel has somewhat compensated for the decline of range in the field by becoming a better hitter at the plate. Lawton faded after the All-Star Break, but still ended the season with numbers in line with his career averages. Belliard was the big surprise; in a down year for second basemen, he was one of the best in the American League this season.
Marked Improvement: Casey Blake, Ben Broussard
Blake, who was the best hitter on the 2003 Indians (which wasn't saying much), improved pretty much every aspect of his offensive game. Ben Broussard, who was in real danger of being kicked to the curb after a couple simply awful stretches early in the season, turned it on after the All-Star Break, one of the few players to do so. Now he's played himself into a job next season.
The Overall Approach
The 2004 Indians scored runs through hitting a ton of doubles and drawing a ton of walks, an approach the sabermetrician in me really likes. While I don't like to give pitching or hitting coaches too much credit (or blame) for player performance, the drastic team-wide improvement has to be in some part due to hitting instructor Eddie Murray. Another big reason has to be the fact a lot of the main cogs were second year players, and had finally started to feel comfortable in the majors. And of course a huge reason is that the lineup was generally kept intact for the whole year; before September, only Lou Merloni went on the Disabled List before September.
2005 Outlook
Omar Vizquel and Ronnie Belliard are probably on their way out, with Aaron Boone and Jhonny Peralta the likely candidates to take their places on the roster. Grady Sizemore will probably get a full-time job somewhere in the outfield, and Josh Phelps will probably replace Lou Merloni as the 1B/DH against left-handed pitchers, leaving Merloni (if he returns) to be more of a utility guy (If Blake ends up as the second baseman, Merloni might spot him against a tough left-hander). The offensive vacuums of John McDonald and Tim Laker will be replaced by Merloni (or Brandon Phillips) and Josh Bard. Obviously, there's a much greater chance of offensive regression to the mean as far as runs scored next season, but the additions of Phelps (over a full season), Peralta, and Boone should improve the team's power production. With pitching being more of a concern this offseason, the offense is going to be counted on to at least stay constant; hopefully, with an improved pitching staff, the offense won't have to "win" as many games as this past season.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Transactions
Outrighted OF Ernie Young, RHRP Jake Robbins, and SS Ivan Ochoa to Buffalo (AAA)
The biggest surprise of the three is Ochoa, who was just added to the 40-man Roster last November. Ivan spent much of the season on Kinston's Disabled List with an injured shoulder. Among the four (I'm not including the Baez fiasco) that were added (the others being Grady Sizemore, Mariano Gomez, and Corey Smith), Ochoa was the real surprise; although he had quite a reputation for his defense, he hadn't hit that much. During October, a lot of teams like to sneak players through waivers, and the Indians did so with these three. Ernie Young and Jake Robbins will become minor-league free agent in a couple weeks, and Ochoa will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he isn't added back to the roster in November.
The biggest surprise of the three is Ochoa, who was just added to the 40-man Roster last November. Ivan spent much of the season on Kinston's Disabled List with an injured shoulder. Among the four (I'm not including the Baez fiasco) that were added (the others being Grady Sizemore, Mariano Gomez, and Corey Smith), Ochoa was the real surprise; although he had quite a reputation for his defense, he hadn't hit that much. During October, a lot of teams like to sneak players through waivers, and the Indians did so with these three. Ernie Young and Jake Robbins will become minor-league free agent in a couple weeks, and Ochoa will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he isn't added back to the roster in November.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Ingraham Chimes In On Vizquel
A pretty even-handed article, in my opinion. Well, except for the fact that he's voting for Vizquel for the Hall of Fame, but that's for another time to discuss.
I'm definitely not sold on Casey Blake the second baseman or even Casey Blake the outfielder, but even so, Blake is a better investment for next season than Vizquel. He'll be getting a big bump in salary, as he's a "super-2" and eligible for arbitration, but all things being equal, should be more productive than Vizquel. The big thing to remember is that Ben Broussard finishing the year strong forced the hand of Shapiro, who probably figured Blake would move over to first base after the season when he signed Aaron Boone. Well, Broussard finished the season hitting .275/.370/.488, something you can't ignore. So now Blake's position is in limbo, depending on what happens with Ronnie Belliard.
Here's a rough chart as to where the Indians are going to see appeciable increases in salary:
Casey Blake +3M
Aaron Boone +3M
Jake Westbrook +3M
FA Starter +7M
Bob Howry +1M
Scott Elarton +1M
David Riske +$500k
Lou Merloni +$500k
CC Sabathia +$2M
Closer +3M (assuming Wickman isn't coming back)
Scott Sauerbeck +$1M?
That's roughly an increase in salary of $25M. The Indians will lose $6.5M from Vizquel ($7.5M minus the $1M buyout), roughly $1M each from Ronnie Belliard, Jose Jiminez and Scott Stewart, and $5.0M from Bob Wickman. So it looks like a net payroll increase (from my standpoint) of around $11M, which would be in the middle of the range promised by ownership. Of course, this could change drastically over the offseason, but at least it gives us some kind of starting point to go by.
I'm definitely not sold on Casey Blake the second baseman or even Casey Blake the outfielder, but even so, Blake is a better investment for next season than Vizquel. He'll be getting a big bump in salary, as he's a "super-2" and eligible for arbitration, but all things being equal, should be more productive than Vizquel. The big thing to remember is that Ben Broussard finishing the year strong forced the hand of Shapiro, who probably figured Blake would move over to first base after the season when he signed Aaron Boone. Well, Broussard finished the season hitting .275/.370/.488, something you can't ignore. So now Blake's position is in limbo, depending on what happens with Ronnie Belliard.
Here's a rough chart as to where the Indians are going to see appeciable increases in salary:
Casey Blake +3M
Aaron Boone +3M
Jake Westbrook +3M
FA Starter +7M
Bob Howry +1M
Scott Elarton +1M
David Riske +$500k
Lou Merloni +$500k
CC Sabathia +$2M
Closer +3M (assuming Wickman isn't coming back)
Scott Sauerbeck +$1M?
That's roughly an increase in salary of $25M. The Indians will lose $6.5M from Vizquel ($7.5M minus the $1M buyout), roughly $1M each from Ronnie Belliard, Jose Jiminez and Scott Stewart, and $5.0M from Bob Wickman. So it looks like a net payroll increase (from my standpoint) of around $11M, which would be in the middle of the range promised by ownership. Of course, this could change drastically over the offseason, but at least it gives us some kind of starting point to go by.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
All My Infielders, Episode 4: Vizquel's Long Goodbye
Judging by his agent's comments, it looks like Omar Vizquel isn't going to be brought back. And of course, Bud Shaw came out with a column that mirrors how the mainstream baseball writers feel about Vizquel. Nevermind that Vizquel is going to be 38 next year, and nevermind that the Indians have two pretty good young shortstops that have nothing more to prove in AAA. Yes, Omar is popular in the community, but comments like this drive me insane:
Now, if you'll allow me, I have to take this opportunity to address this. Bringing Omar Vizquel back is not going to sell tickets to the Jake next year; winning is. And the Indians have a lot bigger needs to address than bringing back Vizquel. I don't mean to be uncaring about what Omar has done during his eleven years with the team, but it's just time for him to go. Vizquel has been overpaid the last couple years because when the Indians signed Roberto Alomar to a fairly large free agent contract, he went to John Hart and complained. And he got what he wanted; a large extension that paid him roughly $7M this season. Now that his contract is finished and the team has younger, cheaper, and potentially better options at short, Vizquel should part ways amicably and move on; there are several teams out there that would be more than willing to sign him if he still wants to play. Unfortunately, I have this sinking feeling that the local media won't let this go, and when Jhonny Peralta makes an error sometime next year, one of the local writers will pen an article complaining that Omar Vizquel wouldn't have bobbled that ball or would have made that throw.
Baseball fans don't like seeing change, especially when that change involves the last link to the two World Series teams of the 1990s. But in this case change has to happen in order for the team to get better, and if the team does so in the next 3-4 years with Peralta or Phillips at short, these laments will become quieter and quieter.
Judging by his agent's comments, it looks like Omar Vizquel isn't going to be brought back. And of course, Bud Shaw came out with a column that mirrors how the mainstream baseball writers feel about Vizquel. Nevermind that Vizquel is going to be 38 next year, and nevermind that the Indians have two pretty good young shortstops that have nothing more to prove in AAA. Yes, Omar is popular in the community, but comments like this drive me insane:
The greatest compliment to Omar Vizquel at age 37 is that his popularity isn't the biggest reason why the Indians need him next year. The talk of contention, if serious, is No. 1 on that list. Several other reasons tumble into place behind it before you consider any effect he might have at the box office.
Now, if you'll allow me, I have to take this opportunity to address this. Bringing Omar Vizquel back is not going to sell tickets to the Jake next year; winning is. And the Indians have a lot bigger needs to address than bringing back Vizquel. I don't mean to be uncaring about what Omar has done during his eleven years with the team, but it's just time for him to go. Vizquel has been overpaid the last couple years because when the Indians signed Roberto Alomar to a fairly large free agent contract, he went to John Hart and complained. And he got what he wanted; a large extension that paid him roughly $7M this season. Now that his contract is finished and the team has younger, cheaper, and potentially better options at short, Vizquel should part ways amicably and move on; there are several teams out there that would be more than willing to sign him if he still wants to play. Unfortunately, I have this sinking feeling that the local media won't let this go, and when Jhonny Peralta makes an error sometime next year, one of the local writers will pen an article complaining that Omar Vizquel wouldn't have bobbled that ball or would have made that throw.
Baseball fans don't like seeing change, especially when that change involves the last link to the two World Series teams of the 1990s. But in this case change has to happen in order for the team to get better, and if the team does so in the next 3-4 years with Peralta or Phillips at short, these laments will become quieter and quieter.
Monday, October 04, 2004
All My Infielders, Episode 3
Today Omar Vizquel meets with Mark Shapiro to discuss his future with the team. Either way, we should know a lot more about the infield configuration soon.
If Omar signs a team-friendly contract to stay with the Tribe, it looks like he won't be moving to second base, like I suggested earlier in this meaningless exercise. So I like Vizquel staying even less than before. Both Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips can play shortstop, but only Phillips has played second base before. Also, there has been talk of Casey Blake moving over to second base, and Aaron Boone has also played second before. So keeping Vizquel around clogs up the infield even more, and more importantly, it leaves Peralta without a starting spot. I just don't see Shapiro willing to keep Vizquel around with all these negatives to him staying even with his popularity with the fanbase. With several teams that would be interested in Vizquel if he goes to free agency, including the Rangers, White Sox, Cubs, and even Twins, I think it's about a 75% chance you'll be seeing Omar in another uniform next April.
As of this episode, my infield configuration hasn't changed:
1B Ben Broussard (pretty much a lock now)
2B Casey Blake
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Aaron Boone
IF Josh Phelps
IF Lou Merloni
I've been thinking the Indians might keep the loser of the shortstop battle (probably Phillips) on the roster as a backup, especially for late-inning defense, but it's probably too premature to make that prediction.
Season In Review: Part 3 of 5
The Defense
An overlooked aspect of the team this season has been its defense. While the team ranked middle-of-the-pack in fielding percentage, it played much worse than that, according to Baseball Prospectus' Defensive Efficiency metric. While quantifying defense is much less reliable than offensive measures, I like the team defensive efficiency measure, because it removes arbitrary scorekeeper decisions from the equation. Defensive Efficiency is merely the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense; there's no arbitrary decisions involved. It also recognizes defense as a team statistic; I'm leery of rating individual players on defense based on statistics, mainly because of the effect of externalities, such as the type of pitchers on the team (right or left-handed, groundball or flyball, etc), the park's dimensions, the players playing around the fielder in question, etc. I really like quantitatively measure a player's performance in general, but to me this is one exception.
So what does this team rating tell us? At least in my perspective, it tells me that the Indians run out a team full of substandard defenders every game. Omar Vizquel doesn't have the range he used to have, and of the rest, I'd only place Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, and possibly Grady Sizemore in the top half of defenders at their position. Adding Aaron Boone should help the infield defense, but moving Casey Blake over to second should probably make it worse. I guess it's a trade-off; most of those substandard defensive players were also very good offensive players. I like the outfield alignment for next year sans Matt Lawton; Coco Crisp has really impressed me with his improvement in the outfield, and Grady Sizemore looks like, at first glance, a pretty decent center fielder. When Jody Gerut returns to the team, the outfield should really help out flyball pitchers like Cliff Lee and Scott Elarton. As far as the infield, Eric Wedge might have to go with a personal defensive alignment for Jake Westbrook when he pitches, for I don't see the projected starters for 2005 improving that much over this past season.
With defensive players being the new "undervalued commodity" in baseball, it should be interesting to see how teams are constructed in the next couple of years, starting with next year's team. Are the Indians content with fielding an offensive team that isn't that good in the field, or will they sacrifice some offense in order to get to more balls in play?
Today Omar Vizquel meets with Mark Shapiro to discuss his future with the team. Either way, we should know a lot more about the infield configuration soon.
If Omar signs a team-friendly contract to stay with the Tribe, it looks like he won't be moving to second base, like I suggested earlier in this meaningless exercise. So I like Vizquel staying even less than before. Both Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips can play shortstop, but only Phillips has played second base before. Also, there has been talk of Casey Blake moving over to second base, and Aaron Boone has also played second before. So keeping Vizquel around clogs up the infield even more, and more importantly, it leaves Peralta without a starting spot. I just don't see Shapiro willing to keep Vizquel around with all these negatives to him staying even with his popularity with the fanbase. With several teams that would be interested in Vizquel if he goes to free agency, including the Rangers, White Sox, Cubs, and even Twins, I think it's about a 75% chance you'll be seeing Omar in another uniform next April.
As of this episode, my infield configuration hasn't changed:
1B Ben Broussard (pretty much a lock now)
2B Casey Blake
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Aaron Boone
IF Josh Phelps
IF Lou Merloni
I've been thinking the Indians might keep the loser of the shortstop battle (probably Phillips) on the roster as a backup, especially for late-inning defense, but it's probably too premature to make that prediction.
Season In Review: Part 3 of 5
The Defense
An overlooked aspect of the team this season has been its defense. While the team ranked middle-of-the-pack in fielding percentage, it played much worse than that, according to Baseball Prospectus' Defensive Efficiency metric. While quantifying defense is much less reliable than offensive measures, I like the team defensive efficiency measure, because it removes arbitrary scorekeeper decisions from the equation. Defensive Efficiency is merely the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense; there's no arbitrary decisions involved. It also recognizes defense as a team statistic; I'm leery of rating individual players on defense based on statistics, mainly because of the effect of externalities, such as the type of pitchers on the team (right or left-handed, groundball or flyball, etc), the park's dimensions, the players playing around the fielder in question, etc. I really like quantitatively measure a player's performance in general, but to me this is one exception.
So what does this team rating tell us? At least in my perspective, it tells me that the Indians run out a team full of substandard defenders every game. Omar Vizquel doesn't have the range he used to have, and of the rest, I'd only place Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, and possibly Grady Sizemore in the top half of defenders at their position. Adding Aaron Boone should help the infield defense, but moving Casey Blake over to second should probably make it worse. I guess it's a trade-off; most of those substandard defensive players were also very good offensive players. I like the outfield alignment for next year sans Matt Lawton; Coco Crisp has really impressed me with his improvement in the outfield, and Grady Sizemore looks like, at first glance, a pretty decent center fielder. When Jody Gerut returns to the team, the outfield should really help out flyball pitchers like Cliff Lee and Scott Elarton. As far as the infield, Eric Wedge might have to go with a personal defensive alignment for Jake Westbrook when he pitches, for I don't see the projected starters for 2005 improving that much over this past season.
With defensive players being the new "undervalued commodity" in baseball, it should be interesting to see how teams are constructed in the next couple of years, starting with next year's team. Are the Indians content with fielding an offensive team that isn't that good in the field, or will they sacrifice some offense in order to get to more balls in play?
Sunday, October 03, 2004
Season In Review: Part 2 of 5
The Starting Pitching
The starting staff regressed from last year, but not as far as the bullpen did. Among AL teams, the Indians' starters were more or less average to below average in several categories, including ERA (5th), WHIP (10th), OPS against (9th), and BAA (5th). The good news is that, unlike the bullpen, the Indians have a pretty good idea of their 2005 starting staff. CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and (possibly) Scott Elarton are good bets to be back in the rotation next year, along with a free agent starter. The big issue is with Sabathia and Lee, who both fell off after the All-Star Break. Lee to me is more readily explainable than Sabathia, who had pitched 3 full seasons before this year. Cliff's strikeout rates held and even improved during the second half, so expecting a rebound from him next season isn't out of the question. Sabathia, however, is a different story. After CC walked off the mound against the Rockies with another shoulder "twinge", he seemed to have lost his control. Granted, an ERA in the low 4s isn't that bad at all from a starter, but compared to what Sabathia accomplished before the All-Star Break, it's got to be seen as a disappointment. Sabathia is probably the early key player for the 2005 team, in that the Indians probably won't bring in any pitcher who has the potential to be better than him.
Jake Westbrook is obviously the most pleasant surprise of the entire team, not to mention the starting staff. I've liked his stuff for a while now, and when he finally realized that throwing strikes was the key to his success, he never looked back. I would not exact a better ERA from him unless the Indians drastically improve their infield defense; a groundball pitcher is usually more susceptible to wild variations in runs allowed even if they're pitching the same. Once a ball gets put in play, there's little a pitcher can do other than to hope the ball is hit at one of his fielders. Westbrook has been a little lucky with his BABIP, but not flukey lucky. His ERA is inflated about a quarter of a run due to the unearned runs he's given up. As always, the key to his success is not walking hitters; now that he's committed to "pitch to contact," his pitch counts per start has gone down, and therefore he's not working deep into many counts.
Jason Davis, who was pretty awful in the rotation this season, is probably going to be in the bullpen next year. As I said in my bullpen review, he may find a home there with his stuff. Jeremy Guthrie will most likely go back to Buffalo and be given one last chance to start. Kyle Denney, after being added to the 40-man roster this September, should join Guthrie in Buffalo's rotation, as will Francisco Cruceta. The good thing is that there should be a little more starting depth next year than last year (although you never know with pitching).
On the whole, the starting staff was a disappointment; Jake Westbrook was the only consistent starter throughout the year. For the Indians to contend next year, they're going to need at least 3 starters that they can count on throughout the season. Hopefully that will be fixed somewhat via free agency, but the two southpaws already in the rotation need to step it up for the Indians to play meaningful games in late September.
The Starting Pitching
| Name | Innings | Starts | ERA | H/9 | SO/9 | BB/9 | VORP |
| Jake Westbrook | 208.2 | 29 | 3.28 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 54.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 188.0 | 30 | 4.12 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 40.5 |
| Cliff Lee | 172.0 | 32 | 5.55 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 8.4 |
| Scott Elarton | 117.1 | 21 | 4.53 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 19.5 |
| Jason Davis | 113.1 | 19 | 5.56 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Chad Durbin | 36.0 | 8 | 6.25 | 10.5 | 6.25 | 4.5 | -4.3 |
| Kazuhito Tadano | 22.0 | 4 | 3.27 | 8.6 | 7.36 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Jeff D'Amico | 36.1 | 7 | 7.63 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | -7.7 |
| Kyle Denney | 16.0 | 4 | 9.56 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | -5.9 |
| Jason Stanford | 11.0 | 2 | 0.82 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 6.6 |
| Joe Dawley | 8.3 | 2 | 5.40 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 0.8 |
| Francisco Cruceta | 7.7 | 2 | 9.39 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
The starting staff regressed from last year, but not as far as the bullpen did. Among AL teams, the Indians' starters were more or less average to below average in several categories, including ERA (5th), WHIP (10th), OPS against (9th), and BAA (5th). The good news is that, unlike the bullpen, the Indians have a pretty good idea of their 2005 starting staff. CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and (possibly) Scott Elarton are good bets to be back in the rotation next year, along with a free agent starter. The big issue is with Sabathia and Lee, who both fell off after the All-Star Break. Lee to me is more readily explainable than Sabathia, who had pitched 3 full seasons before this year. Cliff's strikeout rates held and even improved during the second half, so expecting a rebound from him next season isn't out of the question. Sabathia, however, is a different story. After CC walked off the mound against the Rockies with another shoulder "twinge", he seemed to have lost his control. Granted, an ERA in the low 4s isn't that bad at all from a starter, but compared to what Sabathia accomplished before the All-Star Break, it's got to be seen as a disappointment. Sabathia is probably the early key player for the 2005 team, in that the Indians probably won't bring in any pitcher who has the potential to be better than him.
Jake Westbrook is obviously the most pleasant surprise of the entire team, not to mention the starting staff. I've liked his stuff for a while now, and when he finally realized that throwing strikes was the key to his success, he never looked back. I would not exact a better ERA from him unless the Indians drastically improve their infield defense; a groundball pitcher is usually more susceptible to wild variations in runs allowed even if they're pitching the same. Once a ball gets put in play, there's little a pitcher can do other than to hope the ball is hit at one of his fielders. Westbrook has been a little lucky with his BABIP, but not flukey lucky. His ERA is inflated about a quarter of a run due to the unearned runs he's given up. As always, the key to his success is not walking hitters; now that he's committed to "pitch to contact," his pitch counts per start has gone down, and therefore he's not working deep into many counts.
Jason Davis, who was pretty awful in the rotation this season, is probably going to be in the bullpen next year. As I said in my bullpen review, he may find a home there with his stuff. Jeremy Guthrie will most likely go back to Buffalo and be given one last chance to start. Kyle Denney, after being added to the 40-man roster this September, should join Guthrie in Buffalo's rotation, as will Francisco Cruceta. The good thing is that there should be a little more starting depth next year than last year (although you never know with pitching).
On the whole, the starting staff was a disappointment; Jake Westbrook was the only consistent starter throughout the year. For the Indians to contend next year, they're going to need at least 3 starters that they can count on throughout the season. Hopefully that will be fixed somewhat via free agency, but the two southpaws already in the rotation need to step it up for the Indians to play meaningful games in late September.
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