With Matt Clement officially off the table, Mark Shapiro now has a decision to make. Right now there's probably two pitchers (Perez and Lowe) left who's worthy of a 3-year deal, two (Millwood and Milton) who are worthy of two-year deals, and the rest (Loaiza, Hernandez, Estes, Lima, etc) probably isn't worth anything more than $3M. Going into the offseason, the #1 priority was getting a starting pitcher, but events have taken place that may force the Indians to forego a starter in favor of upgrading the team in other aspects. Is paying Eric Milton $21M really going to fix a hole in the rotation? What about paying Odalis Perez $18M? There comes a time where the cure is worse than the disease, and that time is rapidly approaching.
So now Shapiro has around $8M to spend, and no good starter to spend it on. Here's his realistic options, given that Ronnie Belliard's contract would be part of that $8M:
(1) Offer Belliard arbitration ($3M), sign Kevin Millwood ($5M)
Wouldn't be a horrible turn of events, but this is nothing I'm going to get excited about. Belliard probably won't be nearly as valuable as he was in 2004, but it's reasonable for him to put a 260/330/400 while playing unspectacular defense. Kevin Millwood, back on the market a year after not getting a contract offer to his (or his agent's) liking, is probably looking for a multi-year deal. Given the pitching market, 2 years/$10M looks like a fair offer. I think Millwood is a better pitcher than Milton, and should cost less. He's not nearly the caliber of pitcher Matt Clement was, but there's no one left on the market that good.
(2) Non-tender Belliard, sign Placido Polanco ($5M), sign Orlando Hernandez ($3M)
I like this option a little more than the previous one. When healthy, El Duque's a pretty decent pitcher, and I think he'll only be getting a one-year deal. I talked about Polanco previously; he'd be a perfect fit for this team, solidifing the infield defense and providing a bit of an upgrade on offense. I'd even consider offering him a three-year contract; I think he's that good. Granted, these aren't signings that would invigorate the fanbase, but they're smart signings.
(3) Non-tender Belliard, sign Eric Milton ($7M), sign Stopgap 2B ($1M)
I mentioned smart signings in option #2, and this option isn't one. Milton is a below-average pitcher who is extremely overrated. Look at his career statistics and tell me if he's worth $7M a season. What would be even worse about signing Milton is that you downgrade second base. Yes, Belliard only cost $1M last year, but that doesn't guarentee this stopgap would exceed expectations to the extent Belliard did. This would be a horrible turn of events.
(4) Non-tender Belliard, sign Odalis Perez ($6M), sign Miguel Cairo ($2M)
Slightly more palatable than Milton/Stopgap, but still not a good move. Cairo has been pretty much a part-timer the last couple seasons, so who knows what the Indians will be getting if they give him 450 at-bats. He's an OK fielder, and his bat is worse than Belliard's.
(5) Non-tender Belliard, sign Magglio Ordonez ($5-8M)
The only bad thing about this is that it would force Casey Blake to second base, something I don't like. If Magglio's knee is healthy (and yes, that's a huge if), he's a tremendous player, as most of you know all too well. He's a good defender in right field, has a good arm, and is one of the best hitters in baseball. Problem is, he's represented by Scott Boras, and hasn't gotten a physical from anyone so far. If he's healthy, I would even forego getting a pitcher and give him the entire $8M.
(6) Non-tender Belliard, sign Moises Alou ($5M), sign Placido Polanco ($5M), trade Blake
This is getting real creative, and there's no way this is happening. But as long as I'm dreaming up options, I'll add this one. Alou, while definitely in his decline phase, would be a nice bat to add to the lineup. Blake is probably tradable even if the Indians offer him arbitration. The issue is getting a starter in return for him. Again, this is pipe-dreaming, but who knows?
There's a lot of other options, but most of them are variations on previous themes. If I had to pick one of them, #2 would probably be the best, mainly because I really like Polanco.
Writings about the Cleveland Indians and other completely unrelated things
Saturday, December 18, 2004
Friday, December 17, 2004
Trade Talks
It looks like there's some interest in Josh Phelps after all. Today's Tampa Tribune says that the Indians asked the Devil Rays for prospect Wes Bankston. Bankston's a good prospect, and that leads me to believe that the Indians might have some leverage if thy're asking for players of this caliber. If they can turn Eric Crozier into Bankston, that would be a nifty move.
Also in the same article it mentions that Tim Laker has signed a minor-league deal with the D-Rays.
Also in the same article it mentions that Tim Laker has signed a minor-league deal with the D-Rays.
The Scarlet Letter
Driving to class a couple days ago, a sportscaster said something on the radio that made me shake my head. I'll paraphrase what he said:
"The Indians signed infielder Jose Hernanez to a one-year contract yesterday. Hernandez, who is known for his strikeouts..."
That was pretty much it. He mentioned the name of the player, and that he strikes out a lot. And that's it. He conveiniently left out that Hernandez hit 13 home runs in 211 at-bats, that he was a key member of the Dodgers' playoff run, and that he plays several positions. He just assumed that strikeout=bad and that players who accumulate a lot of them are bad players. Let's actually look at the numbers, shall we?
Strikeout Leaders, 2004
1. OF Adam Dunn (195)
2. 2B Mark Bellhorn (177)
3. OF Craig Wilson (169)
4. OF Corey Patterson (168)
5. OF Geoff Jenkins (152)
6. OF Brad Wilkerson (152)
7. OF Jim Edmonds (150)
8. 3B Hank Blalock (149)
9. OF Miguel Cabrera (148)
10. OF Andruw Jones (147)
There's some pretty good players on that list. Something must be wrong here, right? Let's look at the players who have struck out the least amount of times (min. 400 ABs):
1. C AJ Pierzynski (27)
2. IF Eric Young (28)
3. IF Deivi Cruz (32)
4. OF Juan Pierre (35)
5. 1B Sean Casey (36)
6. 2B Placido Polanco (39)
7. OF Endy Chavez (40)
8. 3B Edgar Alfonso (40)
9. C Toby Hall (41)
10. 2B Joey Cora (41)
After a cursory glance, it doesn't look like strikeout totals really mean much. After all, a strikeout, for all its attention by the media, is just another out. In the grand scheme of things, the difference between a popfly to right field is essentially the same outcome as a swinging strikeout. So why don't writers or sportscasters rip a player based on all his groundouts to second? Because it isn't as romantic as a strikeout. After all, Mighty Casey doesn't just make an out, he strikes out. A batting average is essentially the percentage of times a batter does not make an out or reach on an error. Nowhere in my description did I mention the word 'strikeout'.
Yes, there are cases where a bad player strikes out a lot. And there are cases where a good player does not strike out very often. But in no case can you assert that a large amount of strikeouts is always indicative of a bad player or the lack of strikeouts always indicates a good player. It's what the player does when he isn't making outs that proves his worth, not the outs themselves.
So next time an announcer remarks that a certain player is leading the league in strikeouts, just go the Internet and look up his statistics. You know, the ones that tell you how good he really is.
[EDIT] "Eric" changed to "Endy" Chavez (assist to Dave Haller)
"The Indians signed infielder Jose Hernanez to a one-year contract yesterday. Hernandez, who is known for his strikeouts..."
That was pretty much it. He mentioned the name of the player, and that he strikes out a lot. And that's it. He conveiniently left out that Hernandez hit 13 home runs in 211 at-bats, that he was a key member of the Dodgers' playoff run, and that he plays several positions. He just assumed that strikeout=bad and that players who accumulate a lot of them are bad players. Let's actually look at the numbers, shall we?
Strikeout Leaders, 2004
1. OF Adam Dunn (195)
2. 2B Mark Bellhorn (177)
3. OF Craig Wilson (169)
4. OF Corey Patterson (168)
5. OF Geoff Jenkins (152)
6. OF Brad Wilkerson (152)
7. OF Jim Edmonds (150)
8. 3B Hank Blalock (149)
9. OF Miguel Cabrera (148)
10. OF Andruw Jones (147)
There's some pretty good players on that list. Something must be wrong here, right? Let's look at the players who have struck out the least amount of times (min. 400 ABs):
1. C AJ Pierzynski (27)
2. IF Eric Young (28)
3. IF Deivi Cruz (32)
4. OF Juan Pierre (35)
5. 1B Sean Casey (36)
6. 2B Placido Polanco (39)
7. OF Endy Chavez (40)
8. 3B Edgar Alfonso (40)
9. C Toby Hall (41)
10. 2B Joey Cora (41)
After a cursory glance, it doesn't look like strikeout totals really mean much. After all, a strikeout, for all its attention by the media, is just another out. In the grand scheme of things, the difference between a popfly to right field is essentially the same outcome as a swinging strikeout. So why don't writers or sportscasters rip a player based on all his groundouts to second? Because it isn't as romantic as a strikeout. After all, Mighty Casey doesn't just make an out, he strikes out. A batting average is essentially the percentage of times a batter does not make an out or reach on an error. Nowhere in my description did I mention the word 'strikeout'.
Yes, there are cases where a bad player strikes out a lot. And there are cases where a good player does not strike out very often. But in no case can you assert that a large amount of strikeouts is always indicative of a bad player or the lack of strikeouts always indicates a good player. It's what the player does when he isn't making outs that proves his worth, not the outs themselves.
So next time an announcer remarks that a certain player is leading the league in strikeouts, just go the Internet and look up his statistics. You know, the ones that tell you how good he really is.
[EDIT] "Eric" changed to "Endy" Chavez (assist to Dave Haller)
Thursday, December 16, 2004
Placido Polanco
Who is he, and why should you be excited if the Indians sign him?
Placido Polanco was acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies in the Scott Rolen deal. They've treated him mainly as a utility infielder since, but I think he would make an excellent everyday second baseman. He's a much better defender than Ronnie Belliard, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Runs Above Replacement
2003
Polanco - 22
Belliard - 6
2004
Polanco - 32
Belliard - 17
What about offense? Polanco is better with the bat as well:
EQA
2003
Polanco - .284
Belliard - .253
2004
Polanco - .268
Belliard - .265
From what I've seen, there hasn't been that much interest in Polanco. St. Louis seems to be the front-runner, but ironically if the Indians non-tender Belliard, the Cardinals may sign him instead. He can accept Philadelphia's arbitration offer, but they have told him that he won't be starting. Minnesota may non-tender Luis Rivas if he doesn't agree to a paycut, but otherwise there aren't a lot of teams looking for second baseman, particularly after Oakland acquired Milwaukee's Keith Ginter. Along with Belliard, Baltimore's Jerry Hairston may also be non-tendered if he isn't traded before December 20th, further increasing the possibilities. I think if Matt Clement signs elsewhere, adding Polanco would represent the best value for the money. If the Indians can get him for $4-4.5M/year, it would be an excellent signing.
Placido Polanco was acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies in the Scott Rolen deal. They've treated him mainly as a utility infielder since, but I think he would make an excellent everyday second baseman. He's a much better defender than Ronnie Belliard, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Runs Above Replacement
2003
Polanco - 22
Belliard - 6
2004
Polanco - 32
Belliard - 17
What about offense? Polanco is better with the bat as well:
EQA
2003
Polanco - .284
Belliard - .253
2004
Polanco - .268
Belliard - .265
From what I've seen, there hasn't been that much interest in Polanco. St. Louis seems to be the front-runner, but ironically if the Indians non-tender Belliard, the Cardinals may sign him instead. He can accept Philadelphia's arbitration offer, but they have told him that he won't be starting. Minnesota may non-tender Luis Rivas if he doesn't agree to a paycut, but otherwise there aren't a lot of teams looking for second baseman, particularly after Oakland acquired Milwaukee's Keith Ginter. Along with Belliard, Baltimore's Jerry Hairston may also be non-tendered if he isn't traded before December 20th, further increasing the possibilities. I think if Matt Clement signs elsewhere, adding Polanco would represent the best value for the money. If the Indians can get him for $4-4.5M/year, it would be an excellent signing.
Tuesday, December 14, 2004
Transactions
Signed IF Jose Hernandez to a one-year contract worth $1.8M
Designated 1B Josh Phelps for Assignment
Received RHP Tom Mastny from Toronto to Complete the John McDonald Trade
Signed RHP Edwin Minaya to a minor-league contract
The brief Josh Phelps era is over, and I'm a bit surprised how soon it ended. If Phelps is in fact a "super-2," then at least this makes a bit of sense. Paul Hoynes noted in his rumors column that the Indians were shopping Phelps, but no one was biting. Sounds like the arbitration dilemma to me; clubs know that if you don't trade him, you'll non-tender him, so why waste a prospect? I have no idea what Phelps would have been worth in arbitration given his recent exploits...maybe $2M or so? I would have kept him just to have another option off the bench. The signing of Hernandez was probably the last straw; Jose mashes left-handers almost to the same extent as Phelps does, but unlike Josh, he can actually play in the field. Some AL team will take a chance on Phelps, particularly if they need a right-handed bat. Maybe Tampa Bay? Baltimore, to pair with Rafael Palmeiro?
Shapiro said that Hernandez was not going to be the starting second baseman, which is a good thing. Either Belliard is coming back, or a free agent will be brought in. Maybe Placido Polanco? Pokey Reese? Shapiro is probably better off just accepting arbitration with Belly if he can't work out a deal.
I'm a bit concerned as to the $1.8M though. Yes, Hernandez is a Boras client, and he was probably the best utility guy on the market, but I don't know if I'd throw that much money at a bench player, particularly with the current payroll. It won't really make much of a difference in getting Clement (the Indians have made their best offer, apparently), but when you only have $9-10M to spend, every little bit helps.
The Indians receieved Tom Mastny from the Blue Jays to complete the John McDonald deal. Mastny is a bit better prospect than I thought the Indians were getting. He posted some nice numbers in low-A this season. Of course, he's 23 years old, and unless he moves fast (to AA next season), he's not going to be taken seriously. Still, not a bad return for Johnny Mac.
Designated 1B Josh Phelps for Assignment
Received RHP Tom Mastny from Toronto to Complete the John McDonald Trade
Signed RHP Edwin Minaya to a minor-league contract
The brief Josh Phelps era is over, and I'm a bit surprised how soon it ended. If Phelps is in fact a "super-2," then at least this makes a bit of sense. Paul Hoynes noted in his rumors column that the Indians were shopping Phelps, but no one was biting. Sounds like the arbitration dilemma to me; clubs know that if you don't trade him, you'll non-tender him, so why waste a prospect? I have no idea what Phelps would have been worth in arbitration given his recent exploits...maybe $2M or so? I would have kept him just to have another option off the bench. The signing of Hernandez was probably the last straw; Jose mashes left-handers almost to the same extent as Phelps does, but unlike Josh, he can actually play in the field. Some AL team will take a chance on Phelps, particularly if they need a right-handed bat. Maybe Tampa Bay? Baltimore, to pair with Rafael Palmeiro?
Shapiro said that Hernandez was not going to be the starting second baseman, which is a good thing. Either Belliard is coming back, or a free agent will be brought in. Maybe Placido Polanco? Pokey Reese? Shapiro is probably better off just accepting arbitration with Belly if he can't work out a deal.
I'm a bit concerned as to the $1.8M though. Yes, Hernandez is a Boras client, and he was probably the best utility guy on the market, but I don't know if I'd throw that much money at a bench player, particularly with the current payroll. It won't really make much of a difference in getting Clement (the Indians have made their best offer, apparently), but when you only have $9-10M to spend, every little bit helps.
The Indians receieved Tom Mastny from the Blue Jays to complete the John McDonald deal. Mastny is a bit better prospect than I thought the Indians were getting. He posted some nice numbers in low-A this season. Of course, he's 23 years old, and unless he moves fast (to AA next season), he's not going to be taken seriously. Still, not a bad return for Johnny Mac.
Rule 5 Relief
Rule 5 (AAA): The Milwaukee Brewers selected RHP Landon Stockman (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Toronto Blue Jays selected RHP Lee Gronkiewicz (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Colorado Rockies selected LHP Keith Ramsey (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Houston Astros selected LHP Blake Allen (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Minnesota Twins selected RHP Armando Gabino (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Tampa Bay Devil Rays selected RHP Richard De los Santos (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Cleveland Indians selected RHP Neomar Flores (Toronto)
What you don't see here is any Rule 5 draftees in the major-league portion; that's certainly a relief. Jason Cooper, Pat Osborn, JD Martin, and others will stay in the organization. The 6 you see that were drafted are mainly minor-league filler, other than Ramsey and Gronkiewicz, who are mildy interesting prospects. Gronkiewicz has a chance of making the majors as a reliever; he has excellent strikeout ratios. But time is not on his side; he'll be 27 next season, and will see AAA for the first time. Ramsey is another older pitching prospect; he pitched a perfect game for high-A Kinston, but his age (25 next May) and his perpipherals (9.1 H/9IP and 6.2 K/9IP) doesn't really excite you that much. If he makes the majors, it will probably be in the bullpen.
The others are mainly filler. Blake Allen repeated Lake County this season as a 23-year-old, Stockman came to the Indians via the Independent Leagues, and the other two haven't seen a full-season league yet.
Neomar Flores seems to have stalled in high-A, and looked worse this season. He doesn't look too exciting.
More on Hernandez
According to his agent, Scott Boras, Jose Hernandez has in fact signed a one-year contract with the Indians worth $1.8M. That's quite a chunk of change for a utility player, but he was one of the best in the business for the Dodgers in 2004. Hernandez, as recently as 2002, was a slugging shortstop for several teams, most notably the Milwaukee Brewers. He's most famous for a record he almost broke; in 2002, he was closing in on Bobby Bonds' all-time strikeout record for a season, when his manager sat him the last couple games so he didn't break it. Nevermind that Hernandez was one of the better shortstops in the National League that season; only Edgar Renteria had a higher VORP. Nevermind that he hit .288/.356/.478 for the Brewers that season. Since then Adam Dunn broke Bonds' record of strikeouts, and somehow managed to hit 46 home runs in the process. In my opinion strikeouts are just another out, the same as a harmless grounder to shortstop. And as long as Hernandez can hit for power and average off the bench, spelling Broussard against left-handers and filling in at various other positions, I really don't care how much he strikes out. Production is all that matters.
The signing does call into question Belliard's future, but unless the Indians somehow sign Clement, he's probably coming back. I guess we'll find out in about a week or so, when clubs must tender arbitration-eligible players contract. If both Belliard and Hernandez are on the team next season, that relegates Brandon Phillips to Bufalo unless a couple other roster moves are made. Right now, here's how the offensive side of the roster looks:
Catchers (2): Martinez, Bard
Infielders (6): Boone, Peralta, Belliard, Broussard, Hernandez, Phelps
Outfielders (4): Crisp, Sizemore, Blake, Ludwick
DH (1): Hafner
But the offseason is still young, and if the Indians don't sign a pitcher, they may go after another bat, further complicating things.
Rule 5 (AAA): The Toronto Blue Jays selected RHP Lee Gronkiewicz (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Colorado Rockies selected LHP Keith Ramsey (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Houston Astros selected LHP Blake Allen (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Minnesota Twins selected RHP Armando Gabino (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Tampa Bay Devil Rays selected RHP Richard De los Santos (Cleveland)
Rule 5 (AAA): The Cleveland Indians selected RHP Neomar Flores (Toronto)
What you don't see here is any Rule 5 draftees in the major-league portion; that's certainly a relief. Jason Cooper, Pat Osborn, JD Martin, and others will stay in the organization. The 6 you see that were drafted are mainly minor-league filler, other than Ramsey and Gronkiewicz, who are mildy interesting prospects. Gronkiewicz has a chance of making the majors as a reliever; he has excellent strikeout ratios. But time is not on his side; he'll be 27 next season, and will see AAA for the first time. Ramsey is another older pitching prospect; he pitched a perfect game for high-A Kinston, but his age (25 next May) and his perpipherals (9.1 H/9IP and 6.2 K/9IP) doesn't really excite you that much. If he makes the majors, it will probably be in the bullpen.
The others are mainly filler. Blake Allen repeated Lake County this season as a 23-year-old, Stockman came to the Indians via the Independent Leagues, and the other two haven't seen a full-season league yet.
Neomar Flores seems to have stalled in high-A, and looked worse this season. He doesn't look too exciting.
More on Hernandez
According to his agent, Scott Boras, Jose Hernandez has in fact signed a one-year contract with the Indians worth $1.8M. That's quite a chunk of change for a utility player, but he was one of the best in the business for the Dodgers in 2004. Hernandez, as recently as 2002, was a slugging shortstop for several teams, most notably the Milwaukee Brewers. He's most famous for a record he almost broke; in 2002, he was closing in on Bobby Bonds' all-time strikeout record for a season, when his manager sat him the last couple games so he didn't break it. Nevermind that Hernandez was one of the better shortstops in the National League that season; only Edgar Renteria had a higher VORP. Nevermind that he hit .288/.356/.478 for the Brewers that season. Since then Adam Dunn broke Bonds' record of strikeouts, and somehow managed to hit 46 home runs in the process. In my opinion strikeouts are just another out, the same as a harmless grounder to shortstop. And as long as Hernandez can hit for power and average off the bench, spelling Broussard against left-handers and filling in at various other positions, I really don't care how much he strikes out. Production is all that matters.
The signing does call into question Belliard's future, but unless the Indians somehow sign Clement, he's probably coming back. I guess we'll find out in about a week or so, when clubs must tender arbitration-eligible players contract. If both Belliard and Hernandez are on the team next season, that relegates Brandon Phillips to Bufalo unless a couple other roster moves are made. Right now, here's how the offensive side of the roster looks:
Catchers (2): Martinez, Bard
Infielders (6): Boone, Peralta, Belliard, Broussard, Hernandez, Phelps
Outfielders (4): Crisp, Sizemore, Blake, Ludwick
DH (1): Hafner
But the offseason is still young, and if the Indians don't sign a pitcher, they may go after another bat, further complicating things.
Monday, December 13, 2004
Jose Hernandez and Other Rumors
One interesting rumor in the past day or so is that the Indians may be close to signing Jose Hernandez to a contract. Hernandez is a pretty useful player; at this stage in his career, he's become a super-sub. He can (and has) played every position in the infield besides catcher, and all three outfield positions. He's a lefty-masher as well: last season he posted an OPS of 1.010 against left-handed pitching.
Hernandez also seems to be a sort of Rorshrach Test for baseball analysts. Some immediately point to his strikeout totals and dismiss him as a free-swinger. Others point to his power numbers and like his bat off the bench. I see him as an upgrade over Lou Merloni; he's a better defender than Lou, especially at shortstop, he has more power, and he's a guy you can bring off the bench late in a game against a tough left-hander. I think he'd be a fine pickup.
Matt Clement is probably out of play for the Indians; the Angels have probably offered $8-9M a year, and the Yankees seem to have entered into the picture. That doesn't bode well.
Just by perusing the several Rule 5 previews, I get the impression that the Indians won't lose as many players as they have in the past couple years. Jason Cooper is probably going to get picked, but after him I couldn't say that anyone else is a lock to get selected. Maybe one of Martin and Denham, and probably one of Torres and Inglett. If I had to guess the number they'll lose, I'd say three. Again, I still wonder why Corey Smith was protected over Cooper, who at least has had success in the minors.
Hernandez also seems to be a sort of Rorshrach Test for baseball analysts. Some immediately point to his strikeout totals and dismiss him as a free-swinger. Others point to his power numbers and like his bat off the bench. I see him as an upgrade over Lou Merloni; he's a better defender than Lou, especially at shortstop, he has more power, and he's a guy you can bring off the bench late in a game against a tough left-hander. I think he'd be a fine pickup.
Matt Clement is probably out of play for the Indians; the Angels have probably offered $8-9M a year, and the Yankees seem to have entered into the picture. That doesn't bode well.
Just by perusing the several Rule 5 previews, I get the impression that the Indians won't lose as many players as they have in the past couple years. Jason Cooper is probably going to get picked, but after him I couldn't say that anyone else is a lock to get selected. Maybe one of Martin and Denham, and probably one of Torres and Inglett. If I had to guess the number they'll lose, I'd say three. Again, I still wonder why Corey Smith was protected over Cooper, who at least has had success in the minors.
Saturday, December 11, 2004
Analyzing the Lawton-Rhodes Trade
Traded OF Matt Lawton and Cash (2005) to the Pittsburgh Pirates for LHRP Arthur Rhodes and Cash (2006)
Please bear with me, as this might turn into a very large post
It's been pretty obvious ever since the Indians started to rebuild in June 2002 that the Indians have been trying to deal Matt Lawton. But a combination of injuries, ineffectiveness, and an albatross of a contract prevented them from doing so. Until now, when Cleveland found a trading partner that (a) was looking to dump a similar contract, (b) needed a left-handed hitter, and (c) needed an outfielder. Pretty much the perfect scenario, and the fact that Rhodes is a left-handed reliever made the deal too sweet to pass up.
There's two ways to look at this trade: the talent perspective and the economic perspective.
(1) The Talent Perspective
In general, when you deal an outfielder for a reliever, you aren't going to get as much production. Middle relievers usually pitch about 50-70 innings in a given season, and left-handed specialists may only pitch in 30-40 innings a year. To look more closely at the two individual players, I'll use VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) to compare the two over the past three seasons. Here's Rhodes...
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
| 28.2 | 11.7 | 4.0 |
...and here's Lawton.
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
| 3.9 | 13.7 | 28.1 |
There's probably a good bet that Lawton will be a more valuable player than Rhodes next season. If he's healthy, (and that's still an issue with him) he'll be a productive outfielder. His defensive ability certainly isn't what it was earlier in his career, but he'll be all right in left field if that's where the Pirates play him. Rhodes, while there's still a chance he can rebound in a more familiar role (setup), probably will never be the dominating pitcher he was with Seattle in the first couple years of this century. Volatility works both ways with relievers; it's certainly possible Rhodes can be at least an adequate setup man over the remainder of his current contract. But Lawton's the better player right now.
You also have to look at the talent around Lawton, and more importantly, the outfield talent. Thanks to the signing of Aaron Boone, the Indians have to find a new place to play Casey Blake, who was probably the team's third best hitter in 2004. When the Indians signed Boone, it was thought that Blake would take over for Ben Broussard, who up to the point had been putting up well-below-average numbers for a first basemen. After the signing, Broussard got hot and stayed that way through the rest of the season, finishing 2004 with a .289 EQA, which is pretty good. So now there was two positions Blake could go, neither of which he'd played before: second base, and the outfield. Blake was a poor fielder in 2004 at an infield position he'd played most of his career; the thought of him moving to second base, which is a much more demanding position, scared me. Blake in the outfield, though, scares me less. Casey is a pretty athletic player; he has a good arm, and has average speed. At the very least he won't be an embarassment in right or left field like he would at second.
The Indians also have a lot of talented, yet unproven, outfielders they could use. Ryan Ludwick is coming off a knee injury, but has power potential, as shown in his brief stints with the Indians. Coco Crisp was one of the few Indians to get better as the season went on, showing somewhat surprising power. Grady Sizemore, the organization's best prospect, has nothing much to prove in AAA. And Jody Gerut, who is going to miss the first couple months of 2005 with a knee injury, is at least a nice part-time option in right, left, or center. So the Indians could replace Lawton with an internal option.
(2) The Economic Perspective
If Matt Lawton was making $4M this season, no one would really be talking about him. Often the money a player makes will increase or decrease expectations as to their production. Lawton at $7M, especially on a team that spent around $35M total last season, is expected to be the team's best player, leading the league in several categories. And that's unfair; a player's value is measured by the numbers on the stat sheet, not on his paycheck. The latter numbers are the representation how valuable the team thinks he is. When the numbers don't mesh, it's a problem. The Indians weren't getting $7M worth of production from Lawton, and this is what lead to today's trade.
The Indians have a pretty strict budget for this upcoming season; it will be around $45-48M, depending which source you use. Before today's trade, Mark Shapiro had $7M of that budget to spend on free agent acquisitions. Prior to the beginning of the free agent period, he thought $7M was going to be good enough to land a pretty good starter. But thanks to some market-setting deals early in the process, $7M doesn't look like it's going to be enough. This is another reason why Lawton was traded; adding $2M to the pile may land a Matt Clement, or allow the team to bring back Ronnie Belliard for another year. Now, after the trade, the Indians have about $9-10M to get a starter, keep Belliard, or both.
By itself, the trade doesn't do much to improve the team. But it allows Shapiro more flexibility to add a couple players that may allow the Indians to challenge for the division next season. Right now, it looks a trade may be a better avenue than to brave the excalating starter bazaar, but Matt Clement is still (as of this moment) unsigned, and maybe that extra $2M will be the difference in convincing him to sign with the Indians.
Lawton Rumors Heating Up
The same paper that started the first rumors now say that a deal is close between the Indians and Pirates. Apparently the Pirates requested medical documents on Lawton, which I gather means both clubs are serious about a deal. As it looks now, it's Lawton (and maybe some cash) to the Pirates for Arthur Rhodes. From a talent perspecive, the Indians lose this trade; Lawton, although overpaid, is still a useful player, and was one of the better leadoff hitters in the AL last year. If the Indians use the cash savings to keep Belliard AND land a pitcher like David Wells or Matt Clement, then I say the trade was worthwhile. But if the Indians dump Lawton, keep Belliard, and call it an offseason, it's a bad deal. Given that the trade may happen soon, the Indians may be able to up their offer to Clement or Wells before either pitcher signs with another team.
The Boston Herald says the Indians offered David Wells a one-year deal worth $6M. The Red Sox are also involved, but they have larger fish to fry, most notably Pedro Martinez. I really wouldn't mind landing Wells, given the current market. Russ Ortiz received about $8M a year from the Diamondbacks yesterday, which defies explanation. I think Clement is a better pitcher, and with more teams getting involved, most notably the Angels, who knows what he'll be getting? The middle-tier pitching market has simply gone insane, in my opinion.
Sheldon Ocker also thinks that Shapiro has started to explore the trade route for pitching. Obviously Tim Hudson should be priority #1, but there could be other possibilities. He mentions the Phillies and Coco Crisp, but I would think that Philadelphia isn't really looking for a center fielder after trading for Kenny Lofton last week. But San Diego, San Francisco, and Houston all are in need of one, so there's one possibility. Belliard should also be in demand, and I would think teams like Oakland, Houston and St. Louis have discussed deals for Belliard. Obviously I like the Oakland angle best of all, but it doesn't look like the Indians are among the front-runners for Hudson.
The rules seem to have changed in midstream. Now Shapiro has to get creative in order to get his goals accomplished.
The Boston Herald says the Indians offered David Wells a one-year deal worth $6M. The Red Sox are also involved, but they have larger fish to fry, most notably Pedro Martinez. I really wouldn't mind landing Wells, given the current market. Russ Ortiz received about $8M a year from the Diamondbacks yesterday, which defies explanation. I think Clement is a better pitcher, and with more teams getting involved, most notably the Angels, who knows what he'll be getting? The middle-tier pitching market has simply gone insane, in my opinion.
Sheldon Ocker also thinks that Shapiro has started to explore the trade route for pitching. Obviously Tim Hudson should be priority #1, but there could be other possibilities. He mentions the Phillies and Coco Crisp, but I would think that Philadelphia isn't really looking for a center fielder after trading for Kenny Lofton last week. But San Diego, San Francisco, and Houston all are in need of one, so there's one possibility. Belliard should also be in demand, and I would think teams like Oakland, Houston and St. Louis have discussed deals for Belliard. Obviously I like the Oakland angle best of all, but it doesn't look like the Indians are among the front-runners for Hudson.
The rules seem to have changed in midstream. Now Shapiro has to get creative in order to get his goals accomplished.
Friday, December 10, 2004
The Pitching Conundrum
Before the offseason started, if you had told me that mediocrities like Eric Milton and Kris Benson would be getting deals over the $20M mark, I wouldn't have believed you. But that's what has been happening. Ever since the Mets overpaid Benson, the remaining starters have been demanding at least that much, to this point have been getting it. I think we're seeing a return to the spendthrift days of 2000 and 2001, when the middle class of free agents got very lucrative deals. Unfortunately this leaves the Indians, who didn't have that much to spend in the first place, out in the cold. Here's a couple points that I hope separates the overreactions from the rationality:
-Shapiro screwed up on Jon Lieber. I don't know why Lieber decided to go to Philadelphia (maybe the schools were better), but the Indians dropped the ball by not being aggressive enough with him. If they had made their best offer and he decided to go elsewhere, that's fine. But when Shapiro complained about Lieber's agent not calling him back, that struck me as very odd. Chris Antonetti, who apparently was handling the Lieber negotiations, said in yesterday's PD that "We anticipated getting a chance to make a final offer," Antonetti said. "We made a significant three-year offer and expressed there was flexibility in it." Given that the Phillies eventually landed Lieber for $7M/year, the final offer should have at least made Lieber's decision more difficult. But now we'll never know.
-It makes no sense to overspend on lesser pitching just because you missed out on your main target. That's hard to swallow, but you can't throw money at Kevin Millwood or Odalis Perez just to say you signed a pitcher to big deal. I think whoever signs either of these pitchers will regret the contract in two or three years. I'd rather go after David Wells on a one-year deal than give Millwood a three-year contract. Wells, for all his baggage (literally and figuratively) is still a good pitcher, and would be a nice fit as the #3 pitcher.
-Be willing to make a trade. There are some possibilities on the trade market, with Tim Hudson the biggest jewel. I'd be willing to deal Ronnie Belliard, Jake Westbrook, and a prospect for Tim Hudson. Westbrook has probably had his best season as a pitcher, and one of Oakland's needs this season is a second baseman. The monetary aspects would still work out, and the Indians could then go after a lesser free agent pitcher to fill out the rotation. The Astros now are also in need of a second baseman, after Jeff Kent signed with the Dodgers. Wade Miller has been given a clean bill of health, but he's a free agent after this season, so he may be pried loose for the right deal. Shapiro has said that he'd rather not explore the trade route just yet, but I think a trade may be a much easier way to get a good pitcher right now. The Indians have a ton of trading chips at their disposal, and if the free agent market doesn't work out (and it's looking that way), they may have to go this route. I'm of the opinion that you keep your best, and trade the rest. The Indians shouldn't be trading guys like Miller or Aubrey, but if trading Jake Dittler can help you get Tim Hudson, you have to least think about it.
-Above all, make the right move, not the most visible move. As I've said before, all I care is that Shapiro make the best move he can with the resources he has. It's not really his fault that the payroll is so low. As much as we wish Dolan to be out-spending Arte Moreno and George Steinbrenner, it isn't happening. By my understanding, the Indians have about $7M to spend on free agents this winter; Shapiro's job is to maximize the value of the $7M, and that means getting the best player(s) he can with it.
After thinking about the Lawton-for-Rhodes deal for a couple days, I'm beginning to sour on it. Yeah, the Indians save about $3M this year, but (a) Lawton is the better player right now and (b) who knows if the savings will be spent. If the Pirates want to throw in Josh Fogg along with Rhodes, that might make it more interesting, but for now I'd take a hardline stance on Lawton. With a weak free agent outfield class, perhaps the teams who lose out on JD Drew or Carlos Beltran may be willing to eat Lawton's entire salary. If the Twins decide to keep Jacque Jones, it may make Lawton even more attractive.
-Shapiro screwed up on Jon Lieber. I don't know why Lieber decided to go to Philadelphia (maybe the schools were better), but the Indians dropped the ball by not being aggressive enough with him. If they had made their best offer and he decided to go elsewhere, that's fine. But when Shapiro complained about Lieber's agent not calling him back, that struck me as very odd. Chris Antonetti, who apparently was handling the Lieber negotiations, said in yesterday's PD that "We anticipated getting a chance to make a final offer," Antonetti said. "We made a significant three-year offer and expressed there was flexibility in it." Given that the Phillies eventually landed Lieber for $7M/year, the final offer should have at least made Lieber's decision more difficult. But now we'll never know.
-It makes no sense to overspend on lesser pitching just because you missed out on your main target. That's hard to swallow, but you can't throw money at Kevin Millwood or Odalis Perez just to say you signed a pitcher to big deal. I think whoever signs either of these pitchers will regret the contract in two or three years. I'd rather go after David Wells on a one-year deal than give Millwood a three-year contract. Wells, for all his baggage (literally and figuratively) is still a good pitcher, and would be a nice fit as the #3 pitcher.
-Be willing to make a trade. There are some possibilities on the trade market, with Tim Hudson the biggest jewel. I'd be willing to deal Ronnie Belliard, Jake Westbrook, and a prospect for Tim Hudson. Westbrook has probably had his best season as a pitcher, and one of Oakland's needs this season is a second baseman. The monetary aspects would still work out, and the Indians could then go after a lesser free agent pitcher to fill out the rotation. The Astros now are also in need of a second baseman, after Jeff Kent signed with the Dodgers. Wade Miller has been given a clean bill of health, but he's a free agent after this season, so he may be pried loose for the right deal. Shapiro has said that he'd rather not explore the trade route just yet, but I think a trade may be a much easier way to get a good pitcher right now. The Indians have a ton of trading chips at their disposal, and if the free agent market doesn't work out (and it's looking that way), they may have to go this route. I'm of the opinion that you keep your best, and trade the rest. The Indians shouldn't be trading guys like Miller or Aubrey, but if trading Jake Dittler can help you get Tim Hudson, you have to least think about it.
-Above all, make the right move, not the most visible move. As I've said before, all I care is that Shapiro make the best move he can with the resources he has. It's not really his fault that the payroll is so low. As much as we wish Dolan to be out-spending Arte Moreno and George Steinbrenner, it isn't happening. By my understanding, the Indians have about $7M to spend on free agents this winter; Shapiro's job is to maximize the value of the $7M, and that means getting the best player(s) he can with it.
After thinking about the Lawton-for-Rhodes deal for a couple days, I'm beginning to sour on it. Yeah, the Indians save about $3M this year, but (a) Lawton is the better player right now and (b) who knows if the savings will be spent. If the Pirates want to throw in Josh Fogg along with Rhodes, that might make it more interesting, but for now I'd take a hardline stance on Lawton. With a weak free agent outfield class, perhaps the teams who lose out on JD Drew or Carlos Beltran may be willing to eat Lawton's entire salary. If the Twins decide to keep Jacque Jones, it may make Lawton even more attractive.
Wednesday, December 08, 2004
Of Arbitration and Salary Dumps
Declined to Offer RP Rick White Arbitration
There's a shocker. White was a two-week stopgap when the bullpen was melting down early in the season, and somehow managed to work himself into a mopup role towards the end of the year. With White out of the picture, the Indians have officially closed the book on their free agents. Lou Merloni and Tim Laker were outrighted before the free agency period began, so although they are free to sign with whomever, they weren't eligible for the arbitration process. Note that the December 7th arbitration deadline is for free agents (players with 6 or more service years) and not for arbitration-eligibles (players with 2-5 service years). That deadline is coming up in a couple of weeks.
It isn't looking that good on the starter front. Ever since Kris Benson's 3-year, $22.5M contract set the market, salary demands of the 1st and 2nd tier pitchers have been steadily rising. Brad Radke just signed a two-year, $18M contract with the Twins, and Jaret Wright just signed a 3-year deal with the Yankees worth $21M. Lieber and Clement are still unsigned (as of this moment), but their contract demands seem to be $8M/year or more. That's not too encouraging.
While perusing Google News, I came across this article, mentioning possible trade talks involving the Indians and Pirates. And the Indians are rumored to be trading an outfielder for a left-handed reliever (shudder). But in this case, the Pirates seem to be interested in Matt Lawton, and would be sending the Tribe Arthur "Diamond" Rhodes. Rhodes is due $7M over the next two seasons, and Lawton is getting a little over $7M in 2005. At first glance, it wouldn't be that bad of a move; the Indians could probably bring back Ronnie Belliard with the savings, and it would pave the way for Casey Blake to move to the outfield. Rhodes would supplant Scott Sauerbeck as the primary lefty out of the pen, and would provide a bit more depth to what was a glaring weakness a year ago.
As a salary dump connoisseur, it's a pretty appetizing deal. But, as with any legitimate salary swap, the cash usually makes the deal. Are the Pirates willing to eat Lawton's entire 2005 salary, or will the Indians have to chip in a million or two? I guess we should find out over the weekend.
There's a shocker. White was a two-week stopgap when the bullpen was melting down early in the season, and somehow managed to work himself into a mopup role towards the end of the year. With White out of the picture, the Indians have officially closed the book on their free agents. Lou Merloni and Tim Laker were outrighted before the free agency period began, so although they are free to sign with whomever, they weren't eligible for the arbitration process. Note that the December 7th arbitration deadline is for free agents (players with 6 or more service years) and not for arbitration-eligibles (players with 2-5 service years). That deadline is coming up in a couple of weeks.
It isn't looking that good on the starter front. Ever since Kris Benson's 3-year, $22.5M contract set the market, salary demands of the 1st and 2nd tier pitchers have been steadily rising. Brad Radke just signed a two-year, $18M contract with the Twins, and Jaret Wright just signed a 3-year deal with the Yankees worth $21M. Lieber and Clement are still unsigned (as of this moment), but their contract demands seem to be $8M/year or more. That's not too encouraging.
While perusing Google News, I came across this article, mentioning possible trade talks involving the Indians and Pirates. And the Indians are rumored to be trading an outfielder for a left-handed reliever (shudder). But in this case, the Pirates seem to be interested in Matt Lawton, and would be sending the Tribe Arthur "Diamond" Rhodes. Rhodes is due $7M over the next two seasons, and Lawton is getting a little over $7M in 2005. At first glance, it wouldn't be that bad of a move; the Indians could probably bring back Ronnie Belliard with the savings, and it would pave the way for Casey Blake to move to the outfield. Rhodes would supplant Scott Sauerbeck as the primary lefty out of the pen, and would provide a bit more depth to what was a glaring weakness a year ago.
As a salary dump connoisseur, it's a pretty appetizing deal. But, as with any legitimate salary swap, the cash usually makes the deal. Are the Pirates willing to eat Lawton's entire 2005 salary, or will the Indians have to chip in a million or two? I guess we should find out over the weekend.
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
Name-Brand Players
I've found that "Q&A" articles are one of the more instructive aspects of the media. One, it makes beat writers analysts, something which is interesting to read. And two, you can generally find out their stances on various Indians-related issues. But this entry isn't really about reacting to the response; it's a reaction to a mindset; that of the hunger for Name players (henceforth called 'Names'). Here's what piqued my interest:
That got me thinking about what's better from the Indians' standpoint: sign a guy who isn't that well-known who will do the job, or go after the recognizable Name that will bring the fence-sitters to the ballpark. The example Justice B. Hill used in his answer was Troy Percival, a fairly well-known closer who's probably past his prime. I guess the argument is that if you sign a Name, the increase in attendance will bring in more money so that you can afford more useful players down the road. And also, if you lose a Name to free agency or trade, attendance will decrease, causing you to have less money to spend down the road. So taking this argument to its eventual conclusion, the Indians would have attracted more interest if they would have kept Omar Vizquel and signed Troy Percival and called it an off-season (because signing the two would have exhausted the budget). Both are most definitely Name players, but somehow I don't see fans rushing out and buying season tickets if the Indians had done this. Or maybe I'm still looking at things through my eyes. I see two players that aren't going to get any better, that won't really improve the team down the road. Some fans may just see the Names and reach for their wallets.
A couple summers ago, I worked at a pharmacy, and I would ask customers if they wanted name-brand or generic versions of the prescription they dropped off. You'd be surprised how many, with nary a thought, told me they wanted the name-brand version. I'd then tell the customer that both contain the same drug, and that the generic was a lot cheaper than the name-brand. Some were convinced then and there to get the generic, but still quite a few insisted on the name they've been taking for years. In the same way, fans may just get comfortable with players they know, and when their team brings in someone they've never seen before, the move is automatically seen as a step backwards. Yes, there are plenty of instances where the Name is the best player, but it's not always the case. A lot of times the player you're getting is a guy who had a fantastic season or three five years ago, and still getting paid for it. Hence the respective contracts that Percival and Vizquel got.
Frankly, I'd rather the team I follow make the smart move rather than the "PR move." If you can do both with the same move, fantastic. But if I had to choose one or the other, I'd choose the wins over the hype.
I'll close with another question from the column that (hopefully) needs no response. I can just imagine Hill laughing while typing the answer.
GM Mark Shapiro doesn't seem to want to get that "rebuilding" thought out of his mind. Our time to win is now, and we need Shapiro to make some aggressive moves and forget about the conservative stuff. What is your honest take on Shapiro's job?
-- Mike, Cleveland
I think the final judgment on Shapiro hasn't been made. He's promised that 2005 will be the year the Indians contend, and Tribe fans will find out shortly if his promise is going to be fulfilled. I can't say if all the pieces are in place for that to happen, but I do know that being in the Central Division will make contending a lot easier.
But I agree, Mike, in that a big splash would be helpful. The Tigers have done so this offseason in signing Troy Percival, and the White Sox will likely make a big move as well. Not that those deals will turn the Sox or the Tigers into the AL Central champions, but big moves often energize fan bases. I think that's what Tribe fans are waiting for -- a move that will get fans talking about the team. The signing of Bob Wickman doesn't fit into that category.
That got me thinking about what's better from the Indians' standpoint: sign a guy who isn't that well-known who will do the job, or go after the recognizable Name that will bring the fence-sitters to the ballpark. The example Justice B. Hill used in his answer was Troy Percival, a fairly well-known closer who's probably past his prime. I guess the argument is that if you sign a Name, the increase in attendance will bring in more money so that you can afford more useful players down the road. And also, if you lose a Name to free agency or trade, attendance will decrease, causing you to have less money to spend down the road. So taking this argument to its eventual conclusion, the Indians would have attracted more interest if they would have kept Omar Vizquel and signed Troy Percival and called it an off-season (because signing the two would have exhausted the budget). Both are most definitely Name players, but somehow I don't see fans rushing out and buying season tickets if the Indians had done this. Or maybe I'm still looking at things through my eyes. I see two players that aren't going to get any better, that won't really improve the team down the road. Some fans may just see the Names and reach for their wallets.
A couple summers ago, I worked at a pharmacy, and I would ask customers if they wanted name-brand or generic versions of the prescription they dropped off. You'd be surprised how many, with nary a thought, told me they wanted the name-brand version. I'd then tell the customer that both contain the same drug, and that the generic was a lot cheaper than the name-brand. Some were convinced then and there to get the generic, but still quite a few insisted on the name they've been taking for years. In the same way, fans may just get comfortable with players they know, and when their team brings in someone they've never seen before, the move is automatically seen as a step backwards. Yes, there are plenty of instances where the Name is the best player, but it's not always the case. A lot of times the player you're getting is a guy who had a fantastic season or three five years ago, and still getting paid for it. Hence the respective contracts that Percival and Vizquel got.
Frankly, I'd rather the team I follow make the smart move rather than the "PR move." If you can do both with the same move, fantastic. But if I had to choose one or the other, I'd choose the wins over the hype.
I'll close with another question from the column that (hopefully) needs no response. I can just imagine Hill laughing while typing the answer.
Could Josh Bard give Victor Martinez a fight for the starting catcher's job next season? When Bard came up at the end of the season, he played well.
-- Justin S., Amherst, Ohio
Saturday, December 04, 2004
A Tangible Offer
On Tuesday, the Indians offered Matt Clement a 3-year contract worth anywhere from $18-24M, depending where you looked. Paul Hoynes said the offer was between $21-24M, and Anthony Castrovince said $18-20M. For now, let's assume the lower end of the spectrum, which is 3 years, $18M. That's probably not going to get it done. If I'm reading the market right, it'll probably take $7-8M a year to land Clement, especially since you have a lot of the big players still looking for pitching. Regardless of what the actual numbers were, the Indians made a serious offer. As I said yesterday, not much is probably going to get done until the "market-setters" start to sign deals. But if the reports are accurate, it's an encouraging sign.
Hoynes also said that Lieber has received an offer, but like Clement, he's waiting for other offers. Another interesting nugget is that the Indians offered Benitez a 3 year, $18M contract, so it wasn't like they lowballed him. Still, I'm thankful the Giants stepped in and gave Armando 21 million reasons to go to San Francisco. I'm of the opinion that 70-inning pitchers aren't worth as much as a 180-inning workhorse, given equivalent talent levels. Yes, you need a capable closer, but he's no good unless you have starting pitching that can get you to a save situation in the first place.
Blogging will be light this weekend, as finals are looming. If something major happens, I'll make an quick appearance, but if not, I'll see you on Monday.
Hoynes also said that Lieber has received an offer, but like Clement, he's waiting for other offers. Another interesting nugget is that the Indians offered Benitez a 3 year, $18M contract, so it wasn't like they lowballed him. Still, I'm thankful the Giants stepped in and gave Armando 21 million reasons to go to San Francisco. I'm of the opinion that 70-inning pitchers aren't worth as much as a 180-inning workhorse, given equivalent talent levels. Yes, you need a capable closer, but he's no good unless you have starting pitching that can get you to a save situation in the first place.
Blogging will be light this weekend, as finals are looming. If something major happens, I'll make an quick appearance, but if not, I'll see you on Monday.
Friday, December 03, 2004
McDonald Traded
Traded IF John McDonald to the Toronto Blue Jays for a Player to be Named
The Indians will receive the player after the Rule 5 Draft, which basically indicates they'll get at best a marginal prospect. McDonald will probably be the second backup infielder, and shouldn't get much playing time. That being said, McDonald can stick around for awhile; defensive specialists are pretty valuable if used correctly. For instance, you could pair McDonald with an offensive-minded second baseman, putting him in the game with a lead. McDonald was a class act during his six seasons with the Tribe, and hopefully his career can continue with Toronto. For a short time, McDonald had the longest tenure with the Indians on the roster; now that distinction falls to David Riske, who made his Cleveland debut on August 14, 1999, about a month after McDonald appeared for the first time.
Who replaces McDonald on the roster? No one, really; as currently constructed it looks like the team will only carry one backup shortstop.
-Two Catchers (Martinez, Bard)
-Six Infielders (Broussard, Blake, Peralta, Boone, Phelps, Phillips/Merloni)
-Four Outfielders (Crisp, Lawton, Sizemore, Ludwick)
-One DH (Hafner)
-Five Starters (Sabathia, Westbrook, FA, Lee, Elarton)
-Seven Relievers (Wickman, Howry, Riske, Betancourt, Miller, Sauerbeck, Swingman)
The Indians could try to carry only three true outfielders if Blake can play out there, but that's pressing the action a bit. They could squeeze Belliard onto the roster, but they'd have to deal one of the outfielders first. Regardless, there wasn't really going to be a spot for Mac on the roster, and the Indians probably did him a service by dealing him to a club that can use him. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time, but I doubt seriously he's going to get that much.
The Indians will receive the player after the Rule 5 Draft, which basically indicates they'll get at best a marginal prospect. McDonald will probably be the second backup infielder, and shouldn't get much playing time. That being said, McDonald can stick around for awhile; defensive specialists are pretty valuable if used correctly. For instance, you could pair McDonald with an offensive-minded second baseman, putting him in the game with a lead. McDonald was a class act during his six seasons with the Tribe, and hopefully his career can continue with Toronto. For a short time, McDonald had the longest tenure with the Indians on the roster; now that distinction falls to David Riske, who made his Cleveland debut on August 14, 1999, about a month after McDonald appeared for the first time.
Who replaces McDonald on the roster? No one, really; as currently constructed it looks like the team will only carry one backup shortstop.
-Two Catchers (Martinez, Bard)
-Six Infielders (Broussard, Blake, Peralta, Boone, Phelps, Phillips/Merloni)
-Four Outfielders (Crisp, Lawton, Sizemore, Ludwick)
-One DH (Hafner)
-Five Starters (Sabathia, Westbrook, FA, Lee, Elarton)
-Seven Relievers (Wickman, Howry, Riske, Betancourt, Miller, Sauerbeck, Swingman)
The Indians could try to carry only three true outfielders if Blake can play out there, but that's pressing the action a bit. They could squeeze Belliard onto the roster, but they'd have to deal one of the outfielders first. Regardless, there wasn't really going to be a spot for Mac on the roster, and the Indians probably did him a service by dealing him to a club that can use him. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time, but I doubt seriously he's going to get that much.
Thursday, December 02, 2004
A Quick Review of the Market - The Starters
Now that the winter meetings are looming, the rumors have started to pick up. Before we examine the latest rumblings, let's review what we know:
-Kris Benson's 3 year contract with the Mets is likely to set the market for a lot of the 2nd tier starters. I believe the Mets vastly overpaid for Benson, who hasn't had an ERA+ over 100 since 2000, four seasons ago. I placed him in the 3rd tier of starters, slightly ahead of Paul Wilson, who I didn't really like either.
-Trade talks involving Randy Johnson have apparently ended for the time being. Arizona wanted Javier Vazquez, a lot of money, another pitcher acquired in a separate deal, and several prospects. This may seem a bit harsh, but Arizona was burned last year in the Curt Schilling trade, and Johnson is theoretically more valuable now than Schilling was last winter. Regardless, I doubt anything's getting done for a while.
-Paul Wilson re-signed with the Reds for about $4M/year. This effectively sets the floor for any offer the Indians tender to a starter. Wilson is at best a 4th starter on a good staff, and while he's probably the Reds' #1, that doesn't make it any easier for the Indians to obtain a better pitcher for a reasonable price.
So what this all mean? Pretty soon, definite offers will start to leak out, and with the Yankees (and Red Sox?) no longer concentrating on Johnson, guys like Carl Pavano, Eric Milton, and Brad Radke will start to get a lot more attention. It will start to get even more serious when Pedro Martinez signs; the teams that lose out on him (NYY, NYM, BOS), will then probably hit their second and third options, which mainly include Pavano, Radke, and Milton. The dominoes will start to fall...
Which brings us to the Indians. They've set their sights on two pitchers: Matt Clement and Jon Lieber. Both will probably want Benson dollars, meaning $7-8M a year for 2-3 years. Will they get it? It probably depends which teams are after them. If the Yankees still haven't made any progress on Johnson, Pedro signs with the Mets, and Boston signs Pavano, the Yankees may just throw money at Lieber to entice him back to the Bronx. I think the Indians could probably get either Lieber or Clement for $7M if Boston or New York doesn't get involved. Since they re-signed Bob Wickman for just under $3M, they should have enough left in the budget to get it done, and that's why I liked the Wickman signing.
The Indians have competition for both Lieber and Clement. The Yankees are interested in bringing Lieber back, and there are about five other teams, including Toronto, who like Clement. Mark Shapiro is trying to strike quickly with one or the other, but it doesn't look like anything's getting done until the higher-priced pitchers start signing. Here's my best-case scenario for the Indians (Note that this doesn't necessarily have to occur in order):
1. The Angels work out a deal for Randy Johnson
2. The Yankees sign Carl Pavano
3. The Red Sox re-sign Pedro Martinez
4. The Yankees sign Al Leiter
5. The Red Sox sign Brad Radke
6. The Mets sign Eric Milton
You could probably substitute Eric Milton for Leiter if you like. Losing out on Johnson, the Yankees would probably go after either Pavano or Pedro. In this instance I have them getting Pavano, but you could switch the two without affecting anything. The Mets lose out on the top tier of pitchers here, so they'd probably sign an Eric Milton and concentrate on acquiring whichever overpriced outfielder catches their fancy. This leaves the Indians' top two choices still available, and the competition for them less formidable. These five signings and one trade leaves a pool of 9 or 10 second-tier arms available. The possibilities now become almost endless for the second tier of starters, so I'm not going to venture out onto that ledge just yet. What I'd look closely at is the "secondary signings;" both New York and Boston are looking for two starters, and hopefully those second starters aren't named Clement or Lieber.
I expect to be totally wrong on this list once everything is said and done; but this isn't a prediction, it's a scenario, the best one I could think of that leaves Lieber and Clement still available after the big money leaves the table.
-Kris Benson's 3 year contract with the Mets is likely to set the market for a lot of the 2nd tier starters. I believe the Mets vastly overpaid for Benson, who hasn't had an ERA+ over 100 since 2000, four seasons ago. I placed him in the 3rd tier of starters, slightly ahead of Paul Wilson, who I didn't really like either.
-Trade talks involving Randy Johnson have apparently ended for the time being. Arizona wanted Javier Vazquez, a lot of money, another pitcher acquired in a separate deal, and several prospects. This may seem a bit harsh, but Arizona was burned last year in the Curt Schilling trade, and Johnson is theoretically more valuable now than Schilling was last winter. Regardless, I doubt anything's getting done for a while.
-Paul Wilson re-signed with the Reds for about $4M/year. This effectively sets the floor for any offer the Indians tender to a starter. Wilson is at best a 4th starter on a good staff, and while he's probably the Reds' #1, that doesn't make it any easier for the Indians to obtain a better pitcher for a reasonable price.
So what this all mean? Pretty soon, definite offers will start to leak out, and with the Yankees (and Red Sox?) no longer concentrating on Johnson, guys like Carl Pavano, Eric Milton, and Brad Radke will start to get a lot more attention. It will start to get even more serious when Pedro Martinez signs; the teams that lose out on him (NYY, NYM, BOS), will then probably hit their second and third options, which mainly include Pavano, Radke, and Milton. The dominoes will start to fall...
Which brings us to the Indians. They've set their sights on two pitchers: Matt Clement and Jon Lieber. Both will probably want Benson dollars, meaning $7-8M a year for 2-3 years. Will they get it? It probably depends which teams are after them. If the Yankees still haven't made any progress on Johnson, Pedro signs with the Mets, and Boston signs Pavano, the Yankees may just throw money at Lieber to entice him back to the Bronx. I think the Indians could probably get either Lieber or Clement for $7M if Boston or New York doesn't get involved. Since they re-signed Bob Wickman for just under $3M, they should have enough left in the budget to get it done, and that's why I liked the Wickman signing.
The Indians have competition for both Lieber and Clement. The Yankees are interested in bringing Lieber back, and there are about five other teams, including Toronto, who like Clement. Mark Shapiro is trying to strike quickly with one or the other, but it doesn't look like anything's getting done until the higher-priced pitchers start signing. Here's my best-case scenario for the Indians (Note that this doesn't necessarily have to occur in order):
1. The Angels work out a deal for Randy Johnson
2. The Yankees sign Carl Pavano
3. The Red Sox re-sign Pedro Martinez
4. The Yankees sign Al Leiter
5. The Red Sox sign Brad Radke
6. The Mets sign Eric Milton
You could probably substitute Eric Milton for Leiter if you like. Losing out on Johnson, the Yankees would probably go after either Pavano or Pedro. In this instance I have them getting Pavano, but you could switch the two without affecting anything. The Mets lose out on the top tier of pitchers here, so they'd probably sign an Eric Milton and concentrate on acquiring whichever overpriced outfielder catches their fancy. This leaves the Indians' top two choices still available, and the competition for them less formidable. These five signings and one trade leaves a pool of 9 or 10 second-tier arms available. The possibilities now become almost endless for the second tier of starters, so I'm not going to venture out onto that ledge just yet. What I'd look closely at is the "secondary signings;" both New York and Boston are looking for two starters, and hopefully those second starters aren't named Clement or Lieber.
I expect to be totally wrong on this list once everything is said and done; but this isn't a prediction, it's a scenario, the best one I could think of that leaves Lieber and Clement still available after the big money leaves the table.
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