RHSP Scott Elarton - Age 28
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 19.2
Contract Status: Free Agent
What you saw this season from Elarton is probably the best you're going to get from him. He's a flyball pitcher, and that's not necessarily a horrible thing for someone who pitches in Jacobs Field; the Jake has been a fairly neutral park for home runs over its first 10 seasons. Unfortunately for Scott, his previous stop was Coors Field, which offered the double whammy of flattening his curveball and turning lazy flyouts into home runs. Does his time in Coors excuse all his bad numbers? Absolutely not; but it appears that Elarton can be an acceptable 5th starter now that he's regained at least some of his confidence. Contrary to what I thought about him when the Indians signed him, he should be brought back if the price is right. Given that the Indians gave Jason Bere and Jeff D'Amico $1M contracts with worse credentials, Elarton's worth at least that much.
RHRP Rick White - Age 35
2004 Salary: ~$400,000
2004 VORP: 2.7
Contract Status: Free Agent
This is a situation where you say thanks to White for being a replacement-level reliever when you didn't have any in your bullpen, but part ways because he's a replacement-level reliever. The term that's thrown around describing these types of guys are "fungible," meaning easily replaceable. Of course there's a problem if Mark Shapiro can't get any better relievers than White next season, but that would be more an issue with Shapiro's performance than with White's.
Next up: Arbitration-eligible players
Site Update
I've finally given up constructing a player page for each player in the organization; now when you click on a player, you'll be taken to their page at The Baseball Cube. I've also linked to their draft page, as you can access every single one of the Indians' drafts via one page. I will however continue to update the Depth Chart, Transactions Page, and Options Page myself.
Writings about the Cleveland Indians and other completely unrelated things
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Carlos Beltran...
Uh, he's pretty good.
It's nice to see Beltran finally getting the national recognition that most fans in the AL Central thought he deserved. If Beltran isn't a true five-tool player, I don't know who is; he's simply an amazing talent.
And he'll become a very very rich man in about a month. He's one of four free agents who the Indians won't even think about signing, the others being Adrian Beltre, Pedro Martinez, and Carl Pavano.
It's nice to see Beltran finally getting the national recognition that most fans in the AL Central thought he deserved. If Beltran isn't a true five-tool player, I don't know who is; he's simply an amazing talent.
And he'll become a very very rich man in about a month. He's one of four free agents who the Indians won't even think about signing, the others being Adrian Beltre, Pedro Martinez, and Carl Pavano.
Saturday, October 16, 2004
Player Reviews: Tim Laker and Bob Wickman
C Tim Laker - Age 34
2004 Salary: $450,000
2004 EQA: .194 (.214/.262/.308)
Contract Status: Free Agent
In 1992, his rookie season, Tim Laker pinch-ran for Gary Carter in the Hall of Famer's last game. Since then, he's had the career of a backup catcher, bouncing from organization to organization. After arriving in Cleveland, he's been a backup to first Josh Bard, then Victor Martinez. Now that both are healthy and not going anywhere, there's no room for him on this team, and he'll probably find work elsewhere; besides, who can resist the allure of a veteren backup catcher?
RHRP Bob Wickman - Age 35
2004 Salary: $5.3M
2004 VORP: 6.7 (4.25 ERA)
Contract Status: Free Agent
On November 5th, 2001, the Indians re-signed Wickman to a three-year extension. At the time, not much was said about the re-signing, since Wickman was coming off two pretty good years as the team's closer. But later that season, Wickman injured his elbow and missed essentially two years recovering from arm surgery. Suddenly that contract was lumped in with other bad deals (Lawton Gutierrez) as evidence against Shapiro's "transitioning" plan. Wickman finally appears healthy, but now that three-year extension has run its course. Bob now is pondering retirement, and he does so, the Indians are pretty much forced to go out and get a closer. If he decides to play another season, he would be a stopgap (aren't most closers stopgaps?) until the team finds an internal solution.
Wickman isn't a typical closer; he relies on his sinkers instead fastballs to get hitters out. Wickman is at his best when he throws strikes, because he'll allow his share of base hits. Now that the label of "proven closer" has been planted indelibly on him, Wicky should have a job waiting for him as long as his arm is all right and he's collecting some 30-odd saves a season; never mind his ERA.
2004 Salary: $450,000
2004 EQA: .194 (.214/.262/.308)
Contract Status: Free Agent
In 1992, his rookie season, Tim Laker pinch-ran for Gary Carter in the Hall of Famer's last game. Since then, he's had the career of a backup catcher, bouncing from organization to organization. After arriving in Cleveland, he's been a backup to first Josh Bard, then Victor Martinez. Now that both are healthy and not going anywhere, there's no room for him on this team, and he'll probably find work elsewhere; besides, who can resist the allure of a veteren backup catcher?
RHRP Bob Wickman - Age 35
2004 Salary: $5.3M
2004 VORP: 6.7 (4.25 ERA)
Contract Status: Free Agent
On November 5th, 2001, the Indians re-signed Wickman to a three-year extension. At the time, not much was said about the re-signing, since Wickman was coming off two pretty good years as the team's closer. But later that season, Wickman injured his elbow and missed essentially two years recovering from arm surgery. Suddenly that contract was lumped in with other bad deals (Lawton Gutierrez) as evidence against Shapiro's "transitioning" plan. Wickman finally appears healthy, but now that three-year extension has run its course. Bob now is pondering retirement, and he does so, the Indians are pretty much forced to go out and get a closer. If he decides to play another season, he would be a stopgap (aren't most closers stopgaps?) until the team finds an internal solution.
Wickman isn't a typical closer; he relies on his sinkers instead fastballs to get hitters out. Wickman is at his best when he throws strikes, because he'll allow his share of base hits. Now that the label of "proven closer" has been planted indelibly on him, Wicky should have a job waiting for him as long as his arm is all right and he's collecting some 30-odd saves a season; never mind his ERA.
Player Reviews: Omar Vizquel
I'm starting my player reviews with players that may not be around much longer.
SS Omar Vizquel - Age: 37
2004 Salary: $7.50M
2004 EQA: .262 (.291/.353/.388)
Contract Status: Free Agent
"I ain't what I used to be, but who the hell is?"
-Dizzy Dean
Omar has become an icon in Cleveland, especially in the past couple of years. During the magical run beginning in 1995, Vizquel was simply a small cog in a large machine, the slick-fielding shortstop who a could steal a base and bunt for a base hit. As Belle and Murray, Ramirez, Lofton and Alomar, and finally Thome left the franchise, fans concentrated their admiration on Vizquel, partly becuase of his smile and his defense, but also because he was the remnant of those Indians of renown, those teams which won 6 division titles and two American League pennants. But wistful remembrances can't affect the future.
While Vizquel probably has a couple more season in him, he's become a different player in the last couple seasons. No longer is his defense Gold-Glove worthy, and a lot of his value has come from the offensive side of the ledger, posting an EQA of .262 this season. Peralta, at age 22, posted a translated EQA of .256 in Buffalo. The difference between Vizquel and Peralta isn't enough to justify re-signing Vizquel; even if you assume that Vizquel at age 38 is the better fielder, Peralta's offensive positives and salary make Omar (gasp!) expendible. Had the two players in question been between a similar player like Mike Bordick and Jhonny Peralta, would the outcry be as loud? Please don't take this as a slam on Vizquel; he's been a very nice player for the Indians for a long time. But it's time to move on.
SS Omar Vizquel - Age: 37
2004 Salary: $7.50M
2004 EQA: .262 (.291/.353/.388)
Contract Status: Free Agent
"I ain't what I used to be, but who the hell is?"
-Dizzy Dean
Omar has become an icon in Cleveland, especially in the past couple of years. During the magical run beginning in 1995, Vizquel was simply a small cog in a large machine, the slick-fielding shortstop who a could steal a base and bunt for a base hit. As Belle and Murray, Ramirez, Lofton and Alomar, and finally Thome left the franchise, fans concentrated their admiration on Vizquel, partly becuase of his smile and his defense, but also because he was the remnant of those Indians of renown, those teams which won 6 division titles and two American League pennants. But wistful remembrances can't affect the future.
While Vizquel probably has a couple more season in him, he's become a different player in the last couple seasons. No longer is his defense Gold-Glove worthy, and a lot of his value has come from the offensive side of the ledger, posting an EQA of .262 this season. Peralta, at age 22, posted a translated EQA of .256 in Buffalo. The difference between Vizquel and Peralta isn't enough to justify re-signing Vizquel; even if you assume that Vizquel at age 38 is the better fielder, Peralta's offensive positives and salary make Omar (gasp!) expendible. Had the two players in question been between a similar player like Mike Bordick and Jhonny Peralta, would the outcry be as loud? Please don't take this as a slam on Vizquel; he's been a very nice player for the Indians for a long time. But it's time to move on.
Friday, October 15, 2004
More Transactions
Declined the 2005 Option of RHRP Bob Wickman ($5M)
Like Vizquel, this doesn't do anything to damage the chance of Wicky coming back. I think the biggest issue right now is whether Wickman wants to play another season or not. If not, the Indians will explore some of the other closer options, including guys like Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, and John Smoltz. If you've read my blog previously, I don't place much stock in spending a ton of money on the bullpen. That being said, if Benitez can be had for $3M, I think the Indians would be crazy not to go for it. The good thing is that a lot of the larger market teams have closers under contract, so the Indians might find a couple bargains via free agency.
Outrighted IF Lou Merloni and C Tim Laker; Both elected free agency
Laker is gone, but Merloni will most likely be back. Wedge made silk out of a sow's ear platooning Broussard and Merloni at first base most of the season, but now that Josh Phelps is around, Merloni should be able to go back to being a nice backup infielder. If Casey Blake does in fact play second base next season, Merloni might fit into an offense/defense platoon at second. Maybe he'll be Jake Westbrook's personal second baseman.
Like Vizquel, this doesn't do anything to damage the chance of Wicky coming back. I think the biggest issue right now is whether Wickman wants to play another season or not. If not, the Indians will explore some of the other closer options, including guys like Troy Percival, Armando Benitez, and John Smoltz. If you've read my blog previously, I don't place much stock in spending a ton of money on the bullpen. That being said, if Benitez can be had for $3M, I think the Indians would be crazy not to go for it. The good thing is that a lot of the larger market teams have closers under contract, so the Indians might find a couple bargains via free agency.
Outrighted IF Lou Merloni and C Tim Laker; Both elected free agency
Laker is gone, but Merloni will most likely be back. Wedge made silk out of a sow's ear platooning Broussard and Merloni at first base most of the season, but now that Josh Phelps is around, Merloni should be able to go back to being a nice backup infielder. If Casey Blake does in fact play second base next season, Merloni might fit into an offense/defense platoon at second. Maybe he'll be Jake Westbrook's personal second baseman.
Transactions
Purchased the Contract of LHRP Scott Sauerbeck
The Indians picked up Sauerbeck earlier this season; he had major shoulder surgery in the winter after no team showed any interest in him. According to this article, Sauerbeck pitched with a torn labrum most of the 2003 season, and injured his rotator cuff after being traded to Boston in July. Given the other left-handed options (or lack of thereof) the Indians have in the bullpen, Sauerbeck looks like a nice low-risk gamble. In 2002, the season before his shoulder injury, Sauerbeck struck out 70 batters in 62.2 innings pitched. He's tougher against left-handed hitters (.201 BAA) than right-handers (.268 BAA), but I think using him strictly as a LOOGY wouldn't be using him efficiently. Unfortunately, if he's the only left-hander in the bullpen next season, Eric Wedge may try to shoehorn him into that role. I don't really like when managers do that; Mike Sciossia found out about that the hard way when he brought in Jarrod Washburn (removing Francisco Rodriguez) to face David Ortiz in this year's ALDS. If a guy has good stuff, it shouldn't really matter who he's facing, barring a really uneven platoon split.
Reinstated RHP Joe Dawley from the 60-day Disabled List; Outrighted him to Buffalo (AAA)
Dawley made two starts for the Indians when the back end of the rotation was a revolving door. He injured his elbow after two starts, although it doesn't look like he's going to have Tommy John surgery. He can become a minor-league free agent shortly, and should be in someone's camp next spring.
Re-signed RHP Kenny Rayborn to a minor-league contract (2005)
Rayborn should spend most of 2005 in Buffalo; he's put up decent numbers in AAA, but his strikeout (4.73) and hit (8.88) ratios don't predict major-league success. He'll be 30 in November.
Released RHP Evan Thomas from Buffalo (AAA)
The Indians picked up Sauerbeck earlier this season; he had major shoulder surgery in the winter after no team showed any interest in him. According to this article, Sauerbeck pitched with a torn labrum most of the 2003 season, and injured his rotator cuff after being traded to Boston in July. Given the other left-handed options (or lack of thereof) the Indians have in the bullpen, Sauerbeck looks like a nice low-risk gamble. In 2002, the season before his shoulder injury, Sauerbeck struck out 70 batters in 62.2 innings pitched. He's tougher against left-handed hitters (.201 BAA) than right-handers (.268 BAA), but I think using him strictly as a LOOGY wouldn't be using him efficiently. Unfortunately, if he's the only left-hander in the bullpen next season, Eric Wedge may try to shoehorn him into that role. I don't really like when managers do that; Mike Sciossia found out about that the hard way when he brought in Jarrod Washburn (removing Francisco Rodriguez) to face David Ortiz in this year's ALDS. If a guy has good stuff, it shouldn't really matter who he's facing, barring a really uneven platoon split.
Reinstated RHP Joe Dawley from the 60-day Disabled List; Outrighted him to Buffalo (AAA)
Dawley made two starts for the Indians when the back end of the rotation was a revolving door. He injured his elbow after two starts, although it doesn't look like he's going to have Tommy John surgery. He can become a minor-league free agent shortly, and should be in someone's camp next spring.
Re-signed RHP Kenny Rayborn to a minor-league contract (2005)
Rayborn should spend most of 2005 in Buffalo; he's put up decent numbers in AAA, but his strikeout (4.73) and hit (8.88) ratios don't predict major-league success. He'll be 30 in November.
Released RHP Evan Thomas from Buffalo (AAA)
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
800x600 Users Rejoice!
I've gone with a semi-liquid layout (the blog shifts to fit your screen size or screen resolution), so those who have had trouble viewing this site at 800X600 pixels before should be able to now. Those who have larger resolutions shouldn't notice anything much at all. As far as browsers go, I think the site looks the best on Mozilla/Firefox and Netscape 6.2 (or later). It looks decent on IE 6.0 as well, so if you have any of those browsers you should be ok. If you are using another browser, let me know how it looks.
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
Transactions
Declined the 2005 Option of SS Omar Vizquel ($5M)
This is nothing shocking, and it doesn't really have any impact on whether Vizquel returns. Declining the option means that Vizquel will receive a $1M buyout. The Indians have until December 7th to make a final decision on keeping Omar, but they'll more than likely have made up their minds long before that. Judging by the reactions from both camps following their post-season meeting, I think Vizquel's agent was asking for too much money. Or maybe Shapiro would rather just cut ties now and go with Jhonny Peralta or Brandon Phillips from here on out. Either way, Vizquel is probably playing for somebody else next season. Despite all the hand-wringing that will result from Vizquel's departure, I really don't think the Indians will suffer that much.
This is nothing shocking, and it doesn't really have any impact on whether Vizquel returns. Declining the option means that Vizquel will receive a $1M buyout. The Indians have until December 7th to make a final decision on keeping Omar, but they'll more than likely have made up their minds long before that. Judging by the reactions from both camps following their post-season meeting, I think Vizquel's agent was asking for too much money. Or maybe Shapiro would rather just cut ties now and go with Jhonny Peralta or Brandon Phillips from here on out. Either way, Vizquel is probably playing for somebody else next season. Despite all the hand-wringing that will result from Vizquel's departure, I really don't think the Indians will suffer that much.
Sunday, October 10, 2004
Season In Review: Part 5 of 5
Overall Review
A handy chart summarizing various team measures:
I think it's pretty obvious where the weak spots were. The bullpen was bad in the first half, and the starting pitching was bad in the second half.
In general, this was a .500 team; their Pythagorean record was only a little over one win off from their real record. The rebuilding is pretty much over; the 2004 payroll should be the lowest in the upcoming five-year span, mainly because the Indians have a lot of pre-Arbitration players on the roster. If the team continues to win, payroll should continue to increase, stabilizing somewhere around the $60M plateau in 2006 when most of this years' core players will be starting to get big raises.
As far as the team on the field, there are several areas to address, including a better understanding of how to steal a base. I like Rick Manning as a broadcaster; however, I haven't really liked what he's done as a coach. Now that Lee Mazilli's job appears safe in Baltimore, Eddie Murray should return as the Indians' hitting instructor; that's a good thing. I'm not as sure about Carl Willis, but his big test will come with how he handles a more experienced pitching staff.
This offseason is going to be a big test for Mark Shapiro as well, because he hasn't been in the position to give out multi-year contracts since the winter of 2001-2002, and we know how that turned out. But overall I've been impressed at a lot of his minor moves, including the signing of Casey Blake, Belliard, Howry, Miller, the acquistions of Hafner, Phelps, and the three prospects from Montreal. He made two bad moves last winter in acquiring Jeriome Robertson and Scott Stewart for decent prospects. However, I'm more impressed that he stood by his plan when there were several opportunities to go for broke or cave to fan interests. The fact that he's willing to part ways with Vizquel, even with mainstream fan opposition tells me a lot; making the right move is more important than making the popular move. He was also willing to sign Kaz Tadano after he was blackballed by every team in Japan and a lot of major league clubs. He was willing to make a stand on Milton Bradley, and not respond even when Milton (and his mother) ripped him in the press.
Overall, I really like the organization's health, top to bottom. There aren't really any bad contracts hanging over the club, the farm system is in good shape, and the coaching staff will be entering its third year in 2005. The only thing left to do is to start bringing in some final pieces via free agency, and hopefully that should be enough to make this club a 87-90 win team in 2005. Granted, a lot of things have to go right to do that, but as Branch Rickey once said, "luck is the residue of design."
Up next I'll concentrate on individual players; I'll try to do 1-3 a day, starting this week.
Thoughts? Comments?
A handy chart summarizing various team measures:
| Category | Amount | AL Rank |
| Defensive Efficiency | .6855 | 13th |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.88 | 12th |
| Starter ERA | 4.77 | 5th |
| Runs Scored | 858 | 5th |
| OPS | .795 | 3rd |
I think it's pretty obvious where the weak spots were. The bullpen was bad in the first half, and the starting pitching was bad in the second half.
In general, this was a .500 team; their Pythagorean record was only a little over one win off from their real record. The rebuilding is pretty much over; the 2004 payroll should be the lowest in the upcoming five-year span, mainly because the Indians have a lot of pre-Arbitration players on the roster. If the team continues to win, payroll should continue to increase, stabilizing somewhere around the $60M plateau in 2006 when most of this years' core players will be starting to get big raises.
As far as the team on the field, there are several areas to address, including a better understanding of how to steal a base. I like Rick Manning as a broadcaster; however, I haven't really liked what he's done as a coach. Now that Lee Mazilli's job appears safe in Baltimore, Eddie Murray should return as the Indians' hitting instructor; that's a good thing. I'm not as sure about Carl Willis, but his big test will come with how he handles a more experienced pitching staff.
This offseason is going to be a big test for Mark Shapiro as well, because he hasn't been in the position to give out multi-year contracts since the winter of 2001-2002, and we know how that turned out. But overall I've been impressed at a lot of his minor moves, including the signing of Casey Blake, Belliard, Howry, Miller, the acquistions of Hafner, Phelps, and the three prospects from Montreal. He made two bad moves last winter in acquiring Jeriome Robertson and Scott Stewart for decent prospects. However, I'm more impressed that he stood by his plan when there were several opportunities to go for broke or cave to fan interests. The fact that he's willing to part ways with Vizquel, even with mainstream fan opposition tells me a lot; making the right move is more important than making the popular move. He was also willing to sign Kaz Tadano after he was blackballed by every team in Japan and a lot of major league clubs. He was willing to make a stand on Milton Bradley, and not respond even when Milton (and his mother) ripped him in the press.
Overall, I really like the organization's health, top to bottom. There aren't really any bad contracts hanging over the club, the farm system is in good shape, and the coaching staff will be entering its third year in 2005. The only thing left to do is to start bringing in some final pieces via free agency, and hopefully that should be enough to make this club a 87-90 win team in 2005. Granted, a lot of things have to go right to do that, but as Branch Rickey once said, "luck is the residue of design."
Up next I'll concentrate on individual players; I'll try to do 1-3 a day, starting this week.
Thoughts? Comments?
Saturday, October 09, 2004
Season In Review: Part 4 of 5
The Offense
There really isn't much of anything negative to say about the 2004 offense, other than they didn't hit a lot of home runs.
In my mind, there were exactly two disappointments; Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut. Escobar is now property of the Chicago White Sox, and Gerut at least justified playing time before his knee injury by playing an excellent right field.
Breakout years: Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Coco Crisp
What Hafner did in 2004 astounds me even more now that I look more closely at the numbers he put up. Only Vladamir Guerrero, Melvin Mora, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada had a higher VORP among AL position players. He might even finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, despite playing for a team that was out of the race by September 1st. I'll get into Hafner and what kind of career I think he can have later on in my player reviews, but suffice to say he's simply a fantastic hitter. Victor Martinez bucked the recent trend of catching prospects who didn't live up of to the advanced billing. With Josh Bard being a much better backup catcher than Tim Laker, Eric Wedge should be able to keep Martinez fresher down the stretch next year. Coco Crisp really surprised me; although I'm a lot less sure of him than I am with Hafner and Martinez, he has a lot of interesting facets to his game, especially his surprising power, that has piqued my interest.
Comeback years: Matt Lawton, Ronnie Belliard, and Omar Vizquel
Lawton and Vizquel simply got healthy, and gave the Indians generally what was expected out of them. Vizquel has somewhat compensated for the decline of range in the field by becoming a better hitter at the plate. Lawton faded after the All-Star Break, but still ended the season with numbers in line with his career averages. Belliard was the big surprise; in a down year for second basemen, he was one of the best in the American League this season.
Marked Improvement: Casey Blake, Ben Broussard
Blake, who was the best hitter on the 2003 Indians (which wasn't saying much), improved pretty much every aspect of his offensive game. Ben Broussard, who was in real danger of being kicked to the curb after a couple simply awful stretches early in the season, turned it on after the All-Star Break, one of the few players to do so. Now he's played himself into a job next season.
The Overall Approach
The 2004 Indians scored runs through hitting a ton of doubles and drawing a ton of walks, an approach the sabermetrician in me really likes. While I don't like to give pitching or hitting coaches too much credit (or blame) for player performance, the drastic team-wide improvement has to be in some part due to hitting instructor Eddie Murray. Another big reason has to be the fact a lot of the main cogs were second year players, and had finally started to feel comfortable in the majors. And of course a huge reason is that the lineup was generally kept intact for the whole year; before September, only Lou Merloni went on the Disabled List before September.
2005 Outlook
Omar Vizquel and Ronnie Belliard are probably on their way out, with Aaron Boone and Jhonny Peralta the likely candidates to take their places on the roster. Grady Sizemore will probably get a full-time job somewhere in the outfield, and Josh Phelps will probably replace Lou Merloni as the 1B/DH against left-handed pitchers, leaving Merloni (if he returns) to be more of a utility guy (If Blake ends up as the second baseman, Merloni might spot him against a tough left-hander). The offensive vacuums of John McDonald and Tim Laker will be replaced by Merloni (or Brandon Phillips) and Josh Bard. Obviously, there's a much greater chance of offensive regression to the mean as far as runs scored next season, but the additions of Phelps (over a full season), Peralta, and Boone should improve the team's power production. With pitching being more of a concern this offseason, the offense is going to be counted on to at least stay constant; hopefully, with an improved pitching staff, the offense won't have to "win" as many games as this past season.
| Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | HR | EQA | VORP |
| Matt Lawton | 680 | .277 | .366 | .421 | 25 | 20 | .274 | 30.6 |
| Casey Blake | 667 | .271 | .354 | .486 | 36 | 28 | .278 | 38.9 |
| Ronnie Belliard | 663 | .282 | .348 | .426 | 48 | 12 | .265 | 39.5 |
| Omar Vizquel | 631 | .291 | .353 | .388 | 28 | 7 | .262 | 35.5 |
| Victor Martinez | 591 | .283 | .359 | .492 | 38 | 23 | .285 | 49.5 |
| Travis Hafner | 573 | .311 | .410 | .583 | 41 | 28 | .325 | 74.1 |
| Jody Gerut | 545 | .252 | .334 | .405 | 31 | 11 | .256 | 15.2 |
| Coco Crisp | 529 | .297 | .344 | .446 | 24 | 15 | .266 | 27.1 |
| Ben Broussard | 484 | .275 | .370 | .488 | 28 | 17 | .289 | 35.4 |
| Lou Merloni | 210 | .289 | .343 | .426 | 12 | 4 | .262 | 8.5 |
| Alex Escobar | 176 | .211 | .318 | .309 | 8 | 1 | .223 | -3.0 |
| Grady Sizemore | 159 | .246 | .333 | .406 | 6 | 4 | NA | 4.9 |
| Tim Laker | 126 | .214 | .262 | .308 | 2 | 3 | .194 | -3.7 |
| John McDonald | 97 | .204 | .237 | .344 | 5 | 2 | .194 | -2.6 |
| Josh Phelps | 80 | .303 | .338 | .579 | 6 | 5 | .295 | 7.5 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 54 | .220 | .278 | .380 | 2 | 2 | .221 | -0.6 |
There really isn't much of anything negative to say about the 2004 offense, other than they didn't hit a lot of home runs.
In my mind, there were exactly two disappointments; Alex Escobar and Jody Gerut. Escobar is now property of the Chicago White Sox, and Gerut at least justified playing time before his knee injury by playing an excellent right field.
Breakout years: Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, and Coco Crisp
What Hafner did in 2004 astounds me even more now that I look more closely at the numbers he put up. Only Vladamir Guerrero, Melvin Mora, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada had a higher VORP among AL position players. He might even finish in the top 10 in MVP voting, despite playing for a team that was out of the race by September 1st. I'll get into Hafner and what kind of career I think he can have later on in my player reviews, but suffice to say he's simply a fantastic hitter. Victor Martinez bucked the recent trend of catching prospects who didn't live up of to the advanced billing. With Josh Bard being a much better backup catcher than Tim Laker, Eric Wedge should be able to keep Martinez fresher down the stretch next year. Coco Crisp really surprised me; although I'm a lot less sure of him than I am with Hafner and Martinez, he has a lot of interesting facets to his game, especially his surprising power, that has piqued my interest.
Comeback years: Matt Lawton, Ronnie Belliard, and Omar Vizquel
Lawton and Vizquel simply got healthy, and gave the Indians generally what was expected out of them. Vizquel has somewhat compensated for the decline of range in the field by becoming a better hitter at the plate. Lawton faded after the All-Star Break, but still ended the season with numbers in line with his career averages. Belliard was the big surprise; in a down year for second basemen, he was one of the best in the American League this season.
Marked Improvement: Casey Blake, Ben Broussard
Blake, who was the best hitter on the 2003 Indians (which wasn't saying much), improved pretty much every aspect of his offensive game. Ben Broussard, who was in real danger of being kicked to the curb after a couple simply awful stretches early in the season, turned it on after the All-Star Break, one of the few players to do so. Now he's played himself into a job next season.
The Overall Approach
The 2004 Indians scored runs through hitting a ton of doubles and drawing a ton of walks, an approach the sabermetrician in me really likes. While I don't like to give pitching or hitting coaches too much credit (or blame) for player performance, the drastic team-wide improvement has to be in some part due to hitting instructor Eddie Murray. Another big reason has to be the fact a lot of the main cogs were second year players, and had finally started to feel comfortable in the majors. And of course a huge reason is that the lineup was generally kept intact for the whole year; before September, only Lou Merloni went on the Disabled List before September.
2005 Outlook
Omar Vizquel and Ronnie Belliard are probably on their way out, with Aaron Boone and Jhonny Peralta the likely candidates to take their places on the roster. Grady Sizemore will probably get a full-time job somewhere in the outfield, and Josh Phelps will probably replace Lou Merloni as the 1B/DH against left-handed pitchers, leaving Merloni (if he returns) to be more of a utility guy (If Blake ends up as the second baseman, Merloni might spot him against a tough left-hander). The offensive vacuums of John McDonald and Tim Laker will be replaced by Merloni (or Brandon Phillips) and Josh Bard. Obviously, there's a much greater chance of offensive regression to the mean as far as runs scored next season, but the additions of Phelps (over a full season), Peralta, and Boone should improve the team's power production. With pitching being more of a concern this offseason, the offense is going to be counted on to at least stay constant; hopefully, with an improved pitching staff, the offense won't have to "win" as many games as this past season.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Transactions
Outrighted OF Ernie Young, RHRP Jake Robbins, and SS Ivan Ochoa to Buffalo (AAA)
The biggest surprise of the three is Ochoa, who was just added to the 40-man Roster last November. Ivan spent much of the season on Kinston's Disabled List with an injured shoulder. Among the four (I'm not including the Baez fiasco) that were added (the others being Grady Sizemore, Mariano Gomez, and Corey Smith), Ochoa was the real surprise; although he had quite a reputation for his defense, he hadn't hit that much. During October, a lot of teams like to sneak players through waivers, and the Indians did so with these three. Ernie Young and Jake Robbins will become minor-league free agent in a couple weeks, and Ochoa will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he isn't added back to the roster in November.
The biggest surprise of the three is Ochoa, who was just added to the 40-man Roster last November. Ivan spent much of the season on Kinston's Disabled List with an injured shoulder. Among the four (I'm not including the Baez fiasco) that were added (the others being Grady Sizemore, Mariano Gomez, and Corey Smith), Ochoa was the real surprise; although he had quite a reputation for his defense, he hadn't hit that much. During October, a lot of teams like to sneak players through waivers, and the Indians did so with these three. Ernie Young and Jake Robbins will become minor-league free agent in a couple weeks, and Ochoa will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft if he isn't added back to the roster in November.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Ingraham Chimes In On Vizquel
A pretty even-handed article, in my opinion. Well, except for the fact that he's voting for Vizquel for the Hall of Fame, but that's for another time to discuss.
I'm definitely not sold on Casey Blake the second baseman or even Casey Blake the outfielder, but even so, Blake is a better investment for next season than Vizquel. He'll be getting a big bump in salary, as he's a "super-2" and eligible for arbitration, but all things being equal, should be more productive than Vizquel. The big thing to remember is that Ben Broussard finishing the year strong forced the hand of Shapiro, who probably figured Blake would move over to first base after the season when he signed Aaron Boone. Well, Broussard finished the season hitting .275/.370/.488, something you can't ignore. So now Blake's position is in limbo, depending on what happens with Ronnie Belliard.
Here's a rough chart as to where the Indians are going to see appeciable increases in salary:
Casey Blake +3M
Aaron Boone +3M
Jake Westbrook +3M
FA Starter +7M
Bob Howry +1M
Scott Elarton +1M
David Riske +$500k
Lou Merloni +$500k
CC Sabathia +$2M
Closer +3M (assuming Wickman isn't coming back)
Scott Sauerbeck +$1M?
That's roughly an increase in salary of $25M. The Indians will lose $6.5M from Vizquel ($7.5M minus the $1M buyout), roughly $1M each from Ronnie Belliard, Jose Jiminez and Scott Stewart, and $5.0M from Bob Wickman. So it looks like a net payroll increase (from my standpoint) of around $11M, which would be in the middle of the range promised by ownership. Of course, this could change drastically over the offseason, but at least it gives us some kind of starting point to go by.
I'm definitely not sold on Casey Blake the second baseman or even Casey Blake the outfielder, but even so, Blake is a better investment for next season than Vizquel. He'll be getting a big bump in salary, as he's a "super-2" and eligible for arbitration, but all things being equal, should be more productive than Vizquel. The big thing to remember is that Ben Broussard finishing the year strong forced the hand of Shapiro, who probably figured Blake would move over to first base after the season when he signed Aaron Boone. Well, Broussard finished the season hitting .275/.370/.488, something you can't ignore. So now Blake's position is in limbo, depending on what happens with Ronnie Belliard.
Here's a rough chart as to where the Indians are going to see appeciable increases in salary:
Casey Blake +3M
Aaron Boone +3M
Jake Westbrook +3M
FA Starter +7M
Bob Howry +1M
Scott Elarton +1M
David Riske +$500k
Lou Merloni +$500k
CC Sabathia +$2M
Closer +3M (assuming Wickman isn't coming back)
Scott Sauerbeck +$1M?
That's roughly an increase in salary of $25M. The Indians will lose $6.5M from Vizquel ($7.5M minus the $1M buyout), roughly $1M each from Ronnie Belliard, Jose Jiminez and Scott Stewart, and $5.0M from Bob Wickman. So it looks like a net payroll increase (from my standpoint) of around $11M, which would be in the middle of the range promised by ownership. Of course, this could change drastically over the offseason, but at least it gives us some kind of starting point to go by.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
All My Infielders, Episode 4: Vizquel's Long Goodbye
Judging by his agent's comments, it looks like Omar Vizquel isn't going to be brought back. And of course, Bud Shaw came out with a column that mirrors how the mainstream baseball writers feel about Vizquel. Nevermind that Vizquel is going to be 38 next year, and nevermind that the Indians have two pretty good young shortstops that have nothing more to prove in AAA. Yes, Omar is popular in the community, but comments like this drive me insane:
Now, if you'll allow me, I have to take this opportunity to address this. Bringing Omar Vizquel back is not going to sell tickets to the Jake next year; winning is. And the Indians have a lot bigger needs to address than bringing back Vizquel. I don't mean to be uncaring about what Omar has done during his eleven years with the team, but it's just time for him to go. Vizquel has been overpaid the last couple years because when the Indians signed Roberto Alomar to a fairly large free agent contract, he went to John Hart and complained. And he got what he wanted; a large extension that paid him roughly $7M this season. Now that his contract is finished and the team has younger, cheaper, and potentially better options at short, Vizquel should part ways amicably and move on; there are several teams out there that would be more than willing to sign him if he still wants to play. Unfortunately, I have this sinking feeling that the local media won't let this go, and when Jhonny Peralta makes an error sometime next year, one of the local writers will pen an article complaining that Omar Vizquel wouldn't have bobbled that ball or would have made that throw.
Baseball fans don't like seeing change, especially when that change involves the last link to the two World Series teams of the 1990s. But in this case change has to happen in order for the team to get better, and if the team does so in the next 3-4 years with Peralta or Phillips at short, these laments will become quieter and quieter.
Judging by his agent's comments, it looks like Omar Vizquel isn't going to be brought back. And of course, Bud Shaw came out with a column that mirrors how the mainstream baseball writers feel about Vizquel. Nevermind that Vizquel is going to be 38 next year, and nevermind that the Indians have two pretty good young shortstops that have nothing more to prove in AAA. Yes, Omar is popular in the community, but comments like this drive me insane:
The greatest compliment to Omar Vizquel at age 37 is that his popularity isn't the biggest reason why the Indians need him next year. The talk of contention, if serious, is No. 1 on that list. Several other reasons tumble into place behind it before you consider any effect he might have at the box office.
Now, if you'll allow me, I have to take this opportunity to address this. Bringing Omar Vizquel back is not going to sell tickets to the Jake next year; winning is. And the Indians have a lot bigger needs to address than bringing back Vizquel. I don't mean to be uncaring about what Omar has done during his eleven years with the team, but it's just time for him to go. Vizquel has been overpaid the last couple years because when the Indians signed Roberto Alomar to a fairly large free agent contract, he went to John Hart and complained. And he got what he wanted; a large extension that paid him roughly $7M this season. Now that his contract is finished and the team has younger, cheaper, and potentially better options at short, Vizquel should part ways amicably and move on; there are several teams out there that would be more than willing to sign him if he still wants to play. Unfortunately, I have this sinking feeling that the local media won't let this go, and when Jhonny Peralta makes an error sometime next year, one of the local writers will pen an article complaining that Omar Vizquel wouldn't have bobbled that ball or would have made that throw.
Baseball fans don't like seeing change, especially when that change involves the last link to the two World Series teams of the 1990s. But in this case change has to happen in order for the team to get better, and if the team does so in the next 3-4 years with Peralta or Phillips at short, these laments will become quieter and quieter.
Monday, October 04, 2004
All My Infielders, Episode 3
Today Omar Vizquel meets with Mark Shapiro to discuss his future with the team. Either way, we should know a lot more about the infield configuration soon.
If Omar signs a team-friendly contract to stay with the Tribe, it looks like he won't be moving to second base, like I suggested earlier in this meaningless exercise. So I like Vizquel staying even less than before. Both Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips can play shortstop, but only Phillips has played second base before. Also, there has been talk of Casey Blake moving over to second base, and Aaron Boone has also played second before. So keeping Vizquel around clogs up the infield even more, and more importantly, it leaves Peralta without a starting spot. I just don't see Shapiro willing to keep Vizquel around with all these negatives to him staying even with his popularity with the fanbase. With several teams that would be interested in Vizquel if he goes to free agency, including the Rangers, White Sox, Cubs, and even Twins, I think it's about a 75% chance you'll be seeing Omar in another uniform next April.
As of this episode, my infield configuration hasn't changed:
1B Ben Broussard (pretty much a lock now)
2B Casey Blake
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Aaron Boone
IF Josh Phelps
IF Lou Merloni
I've been thinking the Indians might keep the loser of the shortstop battle (probably Phillips) on the roster as a backup, especially for late-inning defense, but it's probably too premature to make that prediction.
Season In Review: Part 3 of 5
The Defense
An overlooked aspect of the team this season has been its defense. While the team ranked middle-of-the-pack in fielding percentage, it played much worse than that, according to Baseball Prospectus' Defensive Efficiency metric. While quantifying defense is much less reliable than offensive measures, I like the team defensive efficiency measure, because it removes arbitrary scorekeeper decisions from the equation. Defensive Efficiency is merely the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense; there's no arbitrary decisions involved. It also recognizes defense as a team statistic; I'm leery of rating individual players on defense based on statistics, mainly because of the effect of externalities, such as the type of pitchers on the team (right or left-handed, groundball or flyball, etc), the park's dimensions, the players playing around the fielder in question, etc. I really like quantitatively measure a player's performance in general, but to me this is one exception.
So what does this team rating tell us? At least in my perspective, it tells me that the Indians run out a team full of substandard defenders every game. Omar Vizquel doesn't have the range he used to have, and of the rest, I'd only place Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, and possibly Grady Sizemore in the top half of defenders at their position. Adding Aaron Boone should help the infield defense, but moving Casey Blake over to second should probably make it worse. I guess it's a trade-off; most of those substandard defensive players were also very good offensive players. I like the outfield alignment for next year sans Matt Lawton; Coco Crisp has really impressed me with his improvement in the outfield, and Grady Sizemore looks like, at first glance, a pretty decent center fielder. When Jody Gerut returns to the team, the outfield should really help out flyball pitchers like Cliff Lee and Scott Elarton. As far as the infield, Eric Wedge might have to go with a personal defensive alignment for Jake Westbrook when he pitches, for I don't see the projected starters for 2005 improving that much over this past season.
With defensive players being the new "undervalued commodity" in baseball, it should be interesting to see how teams are constructed in the next couple of years, starting with next year's team. Are the Indians content with fielding an offensive team that isn't that good in the field, or will they sacrifice some offense in order to get to more balls in play?
Today Omar Vizquel meets with Mark Shapiro to discuss his future with the team. Either way, we should know a lot more about the infield configuration soon.
If Omar signs a team-friendly contract to stay with the Tribe, it looks like he won't be moving to second base, like I suggested earlier in this meaningless exercise. So I like Vizquel staying even less than before. Both Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Phillips can play shortstop, but only Phillips has played second base before. Also, there has been talk of Casey Blake moving over to second base, and Aaron Boone has also played second before. So keeping Vizquel around clogs up the infield even more, and more importantly, it leaves Peralta without a starting spot. I just don't see Shapiro willing to keep Vizquel around with all these negatives to him staying even with his popularity with the fanbase. With several teams that would be interested in Vizquel if he goes to free agency, including the Rangers, White Sox, Cubs, and even Twins, I think it's about a 75% chance you'll be seeing Omar in another uniform next April.
As of this episode, my infield configuration hasn't changed:
1B Ben Broussard (pretty much a lock now)
2B Casey Blake
SS Jhonny Peralta
3B Aaron Boone
IF Josh Phelps
IF Lou Merloni
I've been thinking the Indians might keep the loser of the shortstop battle (probably Phillips) on the roster as a backup, especially for late-inning defense, but it's probably too premature to make that prediction.
Season In Review: Part 3 of 5
The Defense
An overlooked aspect of the team this season has been its defense. While the team ranked middle-of-the-pack in fielding percentage, it played much worse than that, according to Baseball Prospectus' Defensive Efficiency metric. While quantifying defense is much less reliable than offensive measures, I like the team defensive efficiency measure, because it removes arbitrary scorekeeper decisions from the equation. Defensive Efficiency is merely the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense; there's no arbitrary decisions involved. It also recognizes defense as a team statistic; I'm leery of rating individual players on defense based on statistics, mainly because of the effect of externalities, such as the type of pitchers on the team (right or left-handed, groundball or flyball, etc), the park's dimensions, the players playing around the fielder in question, etc. I really like quantitatively measure a player's performance in general, but to me this is one exception.
So what does this team rating tell us? At least in my perspective, it tells me that the Indians run out a team full of substandard defenders every game. Omar Vizquel doesn't have the range he used to have, and of the rest, I'd only place Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, and possibly Grady Sizemore in the top half of defenders at their position. Adding Aaron Boone should help the infield defense, but moving Casey Blake over to second should probably make it worse. I guess it's a trade-off; most of those substandard defensive players were also very good offensive players. I like the outfield alignment for next year sans Matt Lawton; Coco Crisp has really impressed me with his improvement in the outfield, and Grady Sizemore looks like, at first glance, a pretty decent center fielder. When Jody Gerut returns to the team, the outfield should really help out flyball pitchers like Cliff Lee and Scott Elarton. As far as the infield, Eric Wedge might have to go with a personal defensive alignment for Jake Westbrook when he pitches, for I don't see the projected starters for 2005 improving that much over this past season.
With defensive players being the new "undervalued commodity" in baseball, it should be interesting to see how teams are constructed in the next couple of years, starting with next year's team. Are the Indians content with fielding an offensive team that isn't that good in the field, or will they sacrifice some offense in order to get to more balls in play?
Sunday, October 03, 2004
Season In Review: Part 2 of 5
The Starting Pitching
The starting staff regressed from last year, but not as far as the bullpen did. Among AL teams, the Indians' starters were more or less average to below average in several categories, including ERA (5th), WHIP (10th), OPS against (9th), and BAA (5th). The good news is that, unlike the bullpen, the Indians have a pretty good idea of their 2005 starting staff. CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and (possibly) Scott Elarton are good bets to be back in the rotation next year, along with a free agent starter. The big issue is with Sabathia and Lee, who both fell off after the All-Star Break. Lee to me is more readily explainable than Sabathia, who had pitched 3 full seasons before this year. Cliff's strikeout rates held and even improved during the second half, so expecting a rebound from him next season isn't out of the question. Sabathia, however, is a different story. After CC walked off the mound against the Rockies with another shoulder "twinge", he seemed to have lost his control. Granted, an ERA in the low 4s isn't that bad at all from a starter, but compared to what Sabathia accomplished before the All-Star Break, it's got to be seen as a disappointment. Sabathia is probably the early key player for the 2005 team, in that the Indians probably won't bring in any pitcher who has the potential to be better than him.
Jake Westbrook is obviously the most pleasant surprise of the entire team, not to mention the starting staff. I've liked his stuff for a while now, and when he finally realized that throwing strikes was the key to his success, he never looked back. I would not exact a better ERA from him unless the Indians drastically improve their infield defense; a groundball pitcher is usually more susceptible to wild variations in runs allowed even if they're pitching the same. Once a ball gets put in play, there's little a pitcher can do other than to hope the ball is hit at one of his fielders. Westbrook has been a little lucky with his BABIP, but not flukey lucky. His ERA is inflated about a quarter of a run due to the unearned runs he's given up. As always, the key to his success is not walking hitters; now that he's committed to "pitch to contact," his pitch counts per start has gone down, and therefore he's not working deep into many counts.
Jason Davis, who was pretty awful in the rotation this season, is probably going to be in the bullpen next year. As I said in my bullpen review, he may find a home there with his stuff. Jeremy Guthrie will most likely go back to Buffalo and be given one last chance to start. Kyle Denney, after being added to the 40-man roster this September, should join Guthrie in Buffalo's rotation, as will Francisco Cruceta. The good thing is that there should be a little more starting depth next year than last year (although you never know with pitching).
On the whole, the starting staff was a disappointment; Jake Westbrook was the only consistent starter throughout the year. For the Indians to contend next year, they're going to need at least 3 starters that they can count on throughout the season. Hopefully that will be fixed somewhat via free agency, but the two southpaws already in the rotation need to step it up for the Indians to play meaningful games in late September.
The Starting Pitching
| Name | Innings | Starts | ERA | H/9 | SO/9 | BB/9 | VORP |
| Jake Westbrook | 208.2 | 29 | 3.28 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 54.9 |
| CC Sabathia | 188.0 | 30 | 4.12 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 40.5 |
| Cliff Lee | 172.0 | 32 | 5.55 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 8.4 |
| Scott Elarton | 117.1 | 21 | 4.53 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 19.5 |
| Jason Davis | 113.1 | 19 | 5.56 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Chad Durbin | 36.0 | 8 | 6.25 | 10.5 | 6.25 | 4.5 | -4.3 |
| Kazuhito Tadano | 22.0 | 4 | 3.27 | 8.6 | 7.36 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| Jeff D'Amico | 36.1 | 7 | 7.63 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | -7.7 |
| Kyle Denney | 16.0 | 4 | 9.56 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | -5.9 |
| Jason Stanford | 11.0 | 2 | 0.82 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 6.6 |
| Joe Dawley | 8.3 | 2 | 5.40 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 0.8 |
| Francisco Cruceta | 7.7 | 2 | 9.39 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
The starting staff regressed from last year, but not as far as the bullpen did. Among AL teams, the Indians' starters were more or less average to below average in several categories, including ERA (5th), WHIP (10th), OPS against (9th), and BAA (5th). The good news is that, unlike the bullpen, the Indians have a pretty good idea of their 2005 starting staff. CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, and (possibly) Scott Elarton are good bets to be back in the rotation next year, along with a free agent starter. The big issue is with Sabathia and Lee, who both fell off after the All-Star Break. Lee to me is more readily explainable than Sabathia, who had pitched 3 full seasons before this year. Cliff's strikeout rates held and even improved during the second half, so expecting a rebound from him next season isn't out of the question. Sabathia, however, is a different story. After CC walked off the mound against the Rockies with another shoulder "twinge", he seemed to have lost his control. Granted, an ERA in the low 4s isn't that bad at all from a starter, but compared to what Sabathia accomplished before the All-Star Break, it's got to be seen as a disappointment. Sabathia is probably the early key player for the 2005 team, in that the Indians probably won't bring in any pitcher who has the potential to be better than him.
Jake Westbrook is obviously the most pleasant surprise of the entire team, not to mention the starting staff. I've liked his stuff for a while now, and when he finally realized that throwing strikes was the key to his success, he never looked back. I would not exact a better ERA from him unless the Indians drastically improve their infield defense; a groundball pitcher is usually more susceptible to wild variations in runs allowed even if they're pitching the same. Once a ball gets put in play, there's little a pitcher can do other than to hope the ball is hit at one of his fielders. Westbrook has been a little lucky with his BABIP, but not flukey lucky. His ERA is inflated about a quarter of a run due to the unearned runs he's given up. As always, the key to his success is not walking hitters; now that he's committed to "pitch to contact," his pitch counts per start has gone down, and therefore he's not working deep into many counts.
Jason Davis, who was pretty awful in the rotation this season, is probably going to be in the bullpen next year. As I said in my bullpen review, he may find a home there with his stuff. Jeremy Guthrie will most likely go back to Buffalo and be given one last chance to start. Kyle Denney, after being added to the 40-man roster this September, should join Guthrie in Buffalo's rotation, as will Francisco Cruceta. The good thing is that there should be a little more starting depth next year than last year (although you never know with pitching).
On the whole, the starting staff was a disappointment; Jake Westbrook was the only consistent starter throughout the year. For the Indians to contend next year, they're going to need at least 3 starters that they can count on throughout the season. Hopefully that will be fixed somewhat via free agency, but the two southpaws already in the rotation need to step it up for the Indians to play meaningful games in late September.
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