The Indians Compendium

Closing Time

2005-08-07T01:42:00.000-04:00

This is probably the final entry of this blog as it is currently constituted. But don't fret; I'm moving to a new location, and the format shouldn't change much at all.

The new location is at SportsBlogs, a group of blogs headlined by Athletics Nation. My blog will be called "Let's Go Tribe," and the URL is www.letsgotribe.com. In other words, if you found my blog (and its convoluted address), you should find this new destination easy to remember.

I appreciate all of you for making this blog what it is today, and look forward to making the new iteration even better. I'm going to continue some of my long-dormant projects at LGT, including my 2002 retrospective, prospect profiles, rating the Top 100 Players in Indians History, and a host of other things. And of course, I will still be posting my thoughts on the day-to-day happenings of the Cleveland Indians. I invite you, the readers, to take a more active role in the new blog by creating diaries, or simply commenting on my posts. I've been very impressed with the quality of comments lately, and hopefully that will continue as well, for I feel reader participation is the lifeblood of my blog; without it, I'm just some idiot writing in cyberspace. I will make every effort to respond to comments or e-mail, so if you have any suggestions for future content, be sure to make them known.

See you on the other side!

-Ryan Richards

New Site

Getting Back Off the Mat

2005-08-06T02:01:00.000-04:00

The Indians, in a bizarre game, beat Detroit 9-6 last night. The game featured two instances of starting pitchers self-destructing after a run of pretty good pitching. Fortunately for the Indians, Nate Robertson's implosion resulted in nine runs being scored, which was enough to overcome Sabathia's five-run seventh inning. CC had looked pretty good up to that point, only allowing one run on one hit through six innings. The win was encouraging because it came in the wake of probably the most devastating loss of the season.

Some transactions:

Reinstated 1B Travis Hafner from the Disabled List

Optioned OF Jason Dubois to Buffalo (AAA)

So the Indians, instead of trying out Dubois at the very least against left-handers (note how Coco Crisp and Grady Sizemore do against southpaws), the Indians keep Jeff Liefer around, who has the same defensive ability as Dubois, plays the same positions, and who is five years older than Jason. How exactly does Liefer fit in the lineup, except as a replacement to Casey Blake? I don't get this move; yes, Liefer is out of options, but who's going to claim him now when they could have had him for a song when he was with Buffalo? I wrote when the Gerut-Dubois deal was made that the Indians owe it to themselves to see what Dubois can do. And that hasn't really happened yet. Dubois will probably put up some great numbers for the Bisons in the interim, but that wouldn't be anything unexpected.

Placed LHP Arthur Rhodes on the Bereavement List

Recalled RHP Fernando Cabrera from Buffalo (AAA)

Rhodes, who is attending to a sickness in his family, will be gone a minimum of three days, which puts even more of a strain on the Indian bullpen, especially the back-end folks. Bob Wickman was not available last night, and Scott Sauerbeck has been used a lot lately. The Indians could have a used a blowout on Friday, but thanks to the five-run seventh inning, the Indians had to use Bob Howry to save the game. Cabrera hasn't been inserted into any high-leverage situation, but he has the stuff to handle a seventh inning assignment right now. Of course Brian Tallet is still in the bullpen, and yes, he hasn't been used yet; that can be looked at as a good thing, because no starter has been taken out early since CC Sabathia's blow-up in Oakland. But like it or not, the Indians will have to use a relatively inexperienced pitcher sooner or later, and Cabrera is the best young relief arm in the system right now.

MLB Suspended RHP Kevin Millwood for five games, RHP David Riske for four games, and Eric Wedge and Robbie Thompson for one game apiece

What really got me is the guy who started the whole mess, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, only received a fine. Obviously the umpire that night believed that Hasegawa threw at Sizemore intentionally, so why does MLB not believe so? Take for example Cliff Lee's suspension last year: he was thrown out of a game for throwing behind Ken Griffey, Jr, and he was suspended for six games (one start). How are the circumstances different here (besides the fact that Hasegawa actually hit Sizemore)? Is it because Grady Sizemore isn't the superstar Griffey was? To me, this smacks of a double standard. Here's what Millwood had to say about it:

"[Hasegawa's] the one that started the whole mess," Millwood said. "If he doesn't get suspended, then it's pretty much a joke."

Millwood, who will make his next start on Thursday in Kansas City, gleaned a message from the discipline dispensed after Cleveland's 10-5 victory.

"I guess it's OK to throw right in the middle of somebody's back when you're getting your [backside] whooped," Millwood said. "But it's not OK to [stick] up for your teammate."

Amen.

Boone's Option Picked Up

2005-08-03T17:06:00.000-04:00

Exercised (and restructured) the 2006 Option of 3B Aaron Boone; Added a 2007 Mutual Option

Press Release

I guess you could call this an extension, although Boone probably would have reached the plate appearance threshold where the option would have vested anyway. No dollars have been released, but Mark Shapiro said that Boone gave back a bit for 2006, and the Indians added the mutual option for 2007. Not really an earth-shattering move, but the Indians save some money next season.

If you believe that Boone's level of play is closer to what he's done in June and July than in April and May, then Boone's probably worth the option. If you think he's the player that hit at or under the Mendoza line the first two months of the season, then he isn't. I think the future level of production lies somewhere between the two extremes, probably he's good for a .260/.320/.430 line next year. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA player projection system pegged Boone's 50 percentile forecast at .263/.322/.429. His defense has been pretty good, probably better than I expected it to be.

Scott Elarton, Again

2005-08-03T03:23:00.000-04:00

Boy am I glad when I'm wrong.

Elarton made his second start against the Yankees, and for the second time he pitched as well as you could hope for. His line:

6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 SO, 0 BB

I'll take it. But to look long-term, is Elarton, who is eligible for free agency after the season, worth bringing back? After all, the Indians do have a couple pitchers that they could plug into the rotation in 2006.

The standard pitching numbers look pretty good. Elarton has given up 120 hits in 117 innings of work, which is pretty decent. He's struck out 68 hitters this year, which translates to 5.0/9IP. One reason why Elarton has been successful has been his low walk totals: he's only walked 30 this season, which is especially important given his penchant for giving up homers (all the runs scored off him tonight were via the long ball). My view is that you're looking at a guy who has marginal stuff, but can survive if he can spot his offspeed pitches. If he can't throw his curve or change for strikes, then he's in trouble. But you could say that for a lot of successful MLB pitches. What I want to know, then, is if this season's numbers are a product of luck, or whether they are indicative of what Scott could do for the next couple of years. To do that, let's look at some of the numbers I used to evaluate Jake Westbrook's 2004 season.

xFIP ERA: 4.70

This statistic normalizes fielding independent pitching to the pitchers' home park, which is especially useful when considering that we're looking at a flyball pitcher. FIP itself is a statistic used to take out all the externalities (mainly fielding) that can affect a pitcher's regular ERA. In this case Elarton's xFIP ERA is a bit higher than his regular ERA, but not by a large amount. So you can say that Elarton's current ERA is pretty good measure of how he's pitching.

LD%: 20.6%

This is expected given how most of Elarton's outs are recorded. I will say that I believe Elarton has been helped very much by the Indian outfielders, specifically in center and left, and that if a an inferior outfielder is playing behind Elarton, some of those line drives may start to fall in for singles and doubles. Just a word of warning.

One other thing that should shed some light on Elarton: a trend analysis. I've broken down Elarton's perforance by month, noting innings, hits, and walks (the strikeouts seem to have remained constant):

April: 19.0 IP, 27 H, 9 BB
May: 29.1 IP, 33 H, 9 BB
June: 31.0 IP, 29 H, 5 BB
July: 37.2 IP, 31 H, 7 BB

Note that Elarton has gotten better during every month. To my untrained eye, he seems to have more control over his pitches, and more hitters are making "weak outs" than before. In summary, everything looks good, and the Indians should entertain bringing Scott back on a one- or two-year deal if they can't retain Kevin Millwood. If they keep Millwood, Elarton is probably redundant. Notice I haven't mentioned the cost; because I underestimated last season what pitchers would be getting on the free agent market, so rather than by suggesting numbers that might look comical four months from now, I'll say Elarton should be retained with "fourth starter money."

Jim Ingraham has figured out why the Indians are trailing the White Sox by umpteen games:

Despite the fact that they are 10th in the American League in hitting, and have lower slugging and on-base percentages than the Indians, the White Sox are running away with American League's Central Division race.

Why?

They play the game the right way. They move base runners, they hit with runners in scoring position, they catch the ball. The Indians do none of that. At least not consistently.

Of course, he failed to mention that the White Sox lead the AL in pitching. And hitting with RISP is not a "fundamental;" it's hitting (and it involves some luck). "Catching the ball" is called fielding; it is not (by my definition) a fundamental. And while the White Sox are second in the league in Defensive Efficiency, the Indians are right behind them.

I've come to believe that "fundamentals" are just a catch phrase sportswriters use to criticize teams that aren't playing "the right way, according to me." If a team like the Indians doesn't bunt all that much, they get criticized because somehow bunting has come to be indicative of a "true team." Nevermind in most cases that giving up an out in order to slightly increase the probability of scoring one run in that inning decreases drastically thel posibility of scoring multiple runs in that inning. ESPN stopped tracking "productive outs" (to my knowledge) this season, and for good reason; there seems to be no correlation between productive outs and scoring runs.

Ingraham, later in the article, admits that a definition of "fundamentals" is very hard to pin down:

Fundamentals are hard to quantify statistically, except for one very obvious statistic: Wins. The teams that win the most tend to be the teams that play the game the right way the most.

Why don't we then concentrate on what we can quantify, then? Baseball does not lack for statistics by which we can evaluate players or teams, which makes relying on a such a subjective concept so silly.

Transactions

2005-08-02T16:41:00.000-04:00

Reinstated LHP Jason Stanford from the 60-day Disabled List; Optioned him to Akron (AA)

Stanford has made a couple starts (an inning apiece) in Mahoning Valley, but he's a ways away from pitching in the majors. Stanford had Tommy John surgery just about a year ago (7-29-04). He should be in the pitching mix for the Indians next season.

Transferred OF Juan Gonzalez to the 60-day Disabled List (hamstring)

Juan is probably going to miss the rest of the season, barring something miraculous happening.

Optioned IF Brandon Phillips to Buffalo (AAA)

Phillips played sparingly (although you can't blame Wedge, given how well Peralta and Belliard were playing), but the main reason he was up in Cleveland seemed to be Derek Shelton, the team's pitching coach and former minor-league hitting instructor. Phillips is good enough defensively to be on a major-league roster right now, but his swing still has too many holes in it. Getting Phillips to take outside fastballs to right field is probably a major hurdle to clear, from what I've seen.

Recalled IF Ramon Vazquez from Buffalo (AAA)

Because Travis Hafner isn't ready to go yet, the Indians called up a middle infielder, although he probably would have been called up anyway. Vazquez is a left-handed middle infielder, and can hit right-handed pitching (career .715 OPS). I'd expect Belliard and Peralta to get some days off now, especially if Hafner comes back. For now, Jeff Liefer is still with the club, and will probably hit against right-handers until Pronk comes back.

Rafael Palmeiro...

2005-08-01T13:19:00.000-04:00

has been suspended by MLB for violating its drug policy.

Somehow I think this will get more attention than the Betancourt suspension...

Yawn

2005-08-01T03:07:00.000-04:00

I did find it amusing that Buster Olney and Steve Phillips spent two hours on Sunday breaking down the trades that weren't made. Although I do have to say I enjoyed watching the Sunday night broadcast sans Joe Morgan, although I know it's only a one week reprieve. Jon Miller and Steve Stone would be a great pairing, but I know it'll never happen. For those unfamiliar with Stone, he used to do Cub games for WGN, and now he's doing ESPN broadcasts, usually for daygames. Hopefully he'll get better assignments in the future, for I think he's the best there is among color analysts.

When Matt Lawton is the biggest name dealt near the trading deadline, you know it's been a boring deadline. Interestingly enough, the Cubs dealt Jody Gerut to the Pirates in exchange for Lawton, forming a sort of three-way deal that's taken place over eight months (VORP in parenthesis):

Cleveland Gets:
LHP Arthur Rhodes (14.3)
OF Jason Dubois (4.4)*

Pittsburgh Gets:
Jody Gerut (2.6)*

Chicago Gets:
Matt Lawton (24.5)

*Combined between Cleveland and Chicago

Given that the Indians have Rhodes under contract for 2006, there's good chance they come out on the winning end of this deal. The opportunity cost remains though, as the Indians essentially replaced Lawton with Casey Blake (he of the -3.8 VORP). I guess it would have been funny if the Indians had dealt Dubois to Pittsburgh for Lawton, closing the cycle once and for all.

The Rangers did not deal Alfonso Soriano (much to Adam's chagrin), Manny Ramirez decided once and for all that he was a Boston "gangster," and the Devil Rays decided to sit on Julio Lugo and Danys Baez rather than get something for them. Hal Lebovitz reported that the Royals had demanded Fausto Carmona for Matt Stairs; if this "offer" is representative of the deliberations last week, then there's no wonder why almost nothing got done. I'm a bit disappointed that the Indians couldn't deal one of their relievers for an outfielder, but given what actually got traded, that disappointment is tempered somewhat.

VORP report as of August 1st (AL rank):

C Victor Martinez: 23.2 (4th)
1B Ben Broussard: 7.5 (13th)
2B Ron Belliard: 16.2 (8th)
3B Aaron Boone: -3.1 (24th)
CF Grady Sizemore: 26.7 (3rd)
DH Travis Hafner: 43.9 (2nd)
LF Coco Crisp: 17.6 (6th)
RF Casy Blake: -3.8 (24th)
SS Jhonny Peralta: 32.3 (5th)

As you can see, the Indians have great offensive numbers up the middle, but are getting little production from traditional offensive positions. Victor Martinez has carried the team since Travis Hafner went on the disabled list, and although Boone's numbers still look horrific, he's hit well in both June (.272/.341/.506) and July (.314/.362/.430). Coco Crisp continues to be a pleasant surprise in left, and Jhonny Peralta is 5th only because he's behind a stellar group of shortstops (and because he sat early in the season). You know the drill on the underachievers.

Next up: the Yankees. The Indians offense has to put the hurt on the Yankee starters, because New York's offense will get their six runs a game.

Friday Night Fights (Sort of)

2005-07-30T02:13:00.000-04:00

Alright, no punches were thrown in last night's victory, but give it time; there's two games left in the series.

First of all, Hasegawa hit Grady Sizemore on purpose for no real good reason. Yeah, he just gave up a home run to Jason Dubois on the previous pitch, but come on. The umpire absolutely made the correct call in tossing him, given where the pitch was thrown (right behind Sizemore, so Grady would back into the pitch). The next inning, Millwood stuck up for his teammate by plunking Yunieski Betancourt, the first batter of the next inning. The benches cleared, Millwood and manager Eric Wedge were tossed, but nothing else happend. But David Riske set the stage for future histrionics by hitting Ichiro in the ninth inning; of course he was ejected, and acting manager Robbie Thompson was as well. Stay tuned, for the next two games may get interesting.

Of course, there was a lot of good that happened during the course of the game; the Indians pounded (soon to be ex?) Seattle pitcher Aaron Sele for nine runs. Victor Martinez, who seems to be hitting now like he did a year ago, hit another three-run homer to effectively put the game out of reach. He finished a triple short of the cycle. Grady Sizemore lead off the game with homer to deep center, and ended a double short of the cycle. Jason Dubois, who loves fastballs out on the outer half of the plate, scorched a home run to right center. When Travis Hafner comes back, Jason needs to be playing right field; although there are some holes in his swing (like a lot of power hitters), you'll take the strikeouts if you can get some power out of him.

The trading deadline is approaching (Sunday at 4pm), and there's some talk that Mark Shapiro might deal either Bob Wickman or Kevin Millwood for some offensive help. Now I'd deal Wickman before Millwood, but I understand that Kevin at this point has a lot more value. With the proposed three-way deal involving Manny Ramirez held up, I'd look to see if I could get Mike Cameron or Aubrey Huff. Obviously the Devil Rays would want prospects (and are supposedly asking the moon and the stars), but the Mets might be interested in Wickman or some other bullpen arm. The Rangers might be a possible destination as well; Kevin Mench would be a great fit. And the Marlins might move Juan Encarnacion. I don't think there's going to be a lot of classic veteren-for-prospect deals this year because of all the teams that are still in races. However, I think you might see a lot of veteren-for-veteren deals where two clubs might trade strengths for weaknesses.

Karma....and Casey Blake

2005-07-28T03:23:00.000-04:00

I guess this is karma coming back on Wickman (and me) because of all those saves he almost blew, but it was an awful time to receive it. Again, there's a lot of season left, but with virtually everyone in the AL still in the race, merely keeping pace with the peloton isn't good enough. What makes the loss even more frustrating is that the Indians collected 14 hits, and had but 4 runs to show for it. Whether it's due to the lack of getting hits at the right time or just plain idiotic baserunning, wasting opportunities just grates on me. But if you look at the stats, Oakland left just as many runners on base (11), and had as many hits (14). That's baseball, I guess.

Let me once and for all enunciate my thoughts on Casey Blake, which dovetails with a bit of my philosophy. Blake is disliked right now not because of who he is, but how he's being used. I think if Blake was a platoon partner for Ben Broussard or played in the outfield once a week and still hit .223/.296/.388, some people would complain, but it wouldn't cause much of a kerfluffle. It's because he's trotted out to right field every day, and his offensive struggles are there in front of you every day that it begins to gnaw at your insides. And I don't care where he's hitting in the order, because it really doesn't matter all too much, but I do care that he's in the lineup to begin with. A parallel is the animosity towards Matt Lawton during his stint with the Indians; it wasn't Matt Lawton per se, it was the fact that the Indians gave him a huge contract after trading for him. Heck, at this point I'd take Lawton's cement-shoed range in right field right now, because he's still a pretty decent hitter. But I guess that's besides the point right now. It wasn't that the Indians should have kept Matt Lawton, it's that they replaced him (essentially) with Casey Blake.

And it goes a bit farther than just saying the Indians made a bad move signing Blake to a two-year deal last winter, because there are instances where a team made the absolute correct decision and the player bombs despite everything. No, the Indians signed Blake to a two-year deal, knowing they'd be moving him to outfield, knowing that even at 2004 levels he'd be an average right fielder, knowing that he was 31 and didn't have much of a track record. The good news is that Blake can play the outfield, and he probably can make out a career as a fourth outfielder/utility man. The bad news is that he's not hitting enough to be a backup catcher right now, and as a result, the Indians have a gigantic hole in the outfield. I'm just glad Grady Sizemore has played as well as he has this season; if not, the outfield would have been Coco Crisp, Jody Gerut (assuming they wouldn't have traded him), and ????.

How do you make the best of this situation? Well, I think you go to Jason Dubois, tell him that he's the right fielder, and see what happens. Or Jeff Liefer. Or Ernie Young. Or Andy Abad. Whoever they decide to pick. Obviously besides possibly Dubois, none of these guys are much of a long-term solution, but they don't need to be. All you want is a .250/.350/.450 line for two months.

I guess my point is that good organizations get the most out of the players they have, and they find the right roles for them. For two years, the Indians did exactly that with Casey Blake, a minor-league free agent who gave them two good years at third base. Then they gave him a two-year deal to play right field, effectively canceling out the great return they received in 2003 and 2004. Hopefully he serves as a warning, so whenever the next Casey Blake appears, they know what to do with him.

Transactions

2005-07-27T12:02:00.000-04:00

Placed 1B/DH Travis Hafner on the 15-day Disabled List (post-concussion symptoms)

Thanks a lot, Buerhle. Hafner has been hitting on the side, but unfortunately whenever he starts running or exercising, he gets dizzy. So after nine days of hoping the dizzyness would go away, the Indians had to DL him on Tuesday or lose the retroactive option. If the dizzy spells go away, Pronk would be eligible to come back when the Indians return home.

Purchased the Contract of 1B/OF Jeff Liefer and Recalled him to Cleveland

Liefer is one of Buffalo's several good AAAA players. A plus for the Indians is that he can play in the outfield some, so I'm hoping against hope that Casey Blake is out of the lineup at least a couple times on the road trip. Liefer's line in Buffalo: 321 AB, .321/.388/.595, 27 2B, 19 HR. Keep in mind that Liefer is 30, lest you entertain any ideas about him. He'll probably be DFAd when Hafner returns.

Optioned RHP Fernando Cabrera to Buffalo (AAA)

Recalled LHP Brian Tallet from Buffalo (AAA)

This happened because of CC Sabathia's meltdown on Monday; the Indians used both of their longmen, and needed some insurance for Tuesday. It turns out that Jake Westbrook spun a gem; of course, Tallet hasn't had much luck at all as far as getting into games is concerned. His next major-league appearance, whenever that happens, will be his first since undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2003.

GM for a Day

2005-07-26T15:25:00.000-04:00

I have to admit I go from thinking the Indians should be sellers to buyers from day to day. But the trade (non-waiver) deadline is upcoming, and Mark Shapiro has a major decision to make. He has to not only make decisions based on the players involved, he has to consider the PR implications as well, like it or not; if the Indians deal Kevin Millwood or Bob Wickman for guys the average Joe doesn't know, then the team will take a PR hit. Of course, the team could be absolutely correct in making that move, but that's the way professional sports seems to be heading. If the Indians land a "name" player for the rest of the season, more fans might start to believe in what the Indians are doing; of course, in doing so, they might have to give up a Brad Snyder or a Jake Dittler in order to do so, which would tick off the die-hards, who would bring up Richie Sexson and Brian Giles. Or they could just stand pat, which would anger a whole other class of fans.

Here's what I would do if I were GM of the Indians for a day:

(1) Deal Bob Wickman if you can shore up an area of weakness. Since there aren't that many true sellers out there, see if you can trade Wickman to another buyer for a player that can fill a need. Baltimore could be a possibility, as would Florida, Texas (if they still think they're in it), or Boston. Since Bob doesn't know if he's going to pitch next year, there's no guarantee that you'd get draft pick compensation, so you might as well deal him now. Wickman for Juan Encarnacion plus a prospect would seem a nice fit, but I'm sure there's other possible deals out there. Bob Howry would probably move up to closer, and David Riske could take his place as primary set-up man. Once Matt Miller comes back, you'd have a bullpen of:

Howry
Rhodes
Riske
Miller
Sauerbeck
Betancourt
Cabrera

(2) Keep Kevin Millwood unless you get blown away. Millwood's been the best pitcher on the staff, and although you figure he's not going to be back, he's going to fetch some compensation via the draft. Keep in mind that Jim Thome's departure to Philadelphia netted the Indians Brad Snyder and Adam Miller, so you can get some pretty good prospects if you draft right. But if a team that loses out on AJ Burnett offers you a great package of players, you jump on it. Possibilities include Texas, both New York teams, Baltimore, and the Cubs. Again, deal Millwood only if someone makes you an offer you can't refuse.

(3) Get Adam Dunn. I don't care if he hits left-handed. I don't care if he strikes out a lot. The guy is one of the best hitters in baseball, and he's 25 years old. And you can have him under your control through 2007. The Reds are paying Ken Griffey, Jr a lot of money, and Dunn is probably going to get $7M+ in arbitration, so I would think he's the outfielder the Reds would deal. He isn't going to come cheap; the Indians would probably have to give up at least two of their better pitching prospects or a major-league pitcher to get him. But if you park him in right field and hit him fifth in the order behind Hafner and Martinez, he consolidates your offense.

(4) Deal Jose Hernandez if you can get a decent return. He can be replaced by either Ryan Garko or Jason Dubois. Again, you deal from your strength in order to shore up an area of weakness.

It is possible for a team to be a buyer and a seller at the same time. In this year's market, it looks like the only way to fix a hole is to do both; there are a lot of teams still in contention, and the teams that are out it don't have much that the Indians would want. I do admit that making the above deals is more difficult than I make it seem, but creativity in deals seems to be one way to make both trading parties happy.

I invite you to play GM for a day: what would you do (within reason) between now and the deadline? Oh, please use the comments on the left (Blogger); I'm phasing out HaloScan over the next two weeks.

Weekend in Review

2005-07-24T19:40:00.000-04:00

It wasn't pretty, but the Indians finally won their first series since the All-Star Break. And again, the pitching has kept the Indians in the Wild Card race. As bad as Cleveland has looked, they are now 2.5 games behind Oakland and Minnesota. The problem going forward is that there are eight teams still within 5 games of the Wild Card lead, so the percentages still aren't good. But just the same, making the playoffs isn't out of the question. They have a key series with Oakland coming up, and next week play the Yankees at home, so the Indians still can control much of their own destiny.

Does Kevin Millwood's 4-9 record convince even the most ardent supporters of win-loss records that wins are team statistics and not pitcher statistics? I also laughed a bit when Sanders mentioned increduously that the Mariners' bullpen has the league's second-best ERA, yet has the fewst wins. Reading anything into a reliever's win-loss record is even more suspect than a starters' record. For example, assume that the score is tied in the 9th inning with two outs, and Reliever A walks the hitter. He's pulled from the game; Reliever B enters. He grooves a fastball to the next batter, who hits a home run. Player A gets the loss. How does this loss tell me anything about Reliever A's effectiveness? This is one of my pet peeves, but despite sterling examples to the contrary (see Jeriome Robertson), writers and announcers continue to concentrate on a pitcher's win-loss record as the gold standard for pitching.

As of July 24:
Jhonny Peralta 262 AB, .302/.360/.538, 17 2B, 13 HR
Omar Vizquel 343 AB, .294/.353/.388, 20 2B, 2 HR

Just sayin'.

Of course, I'm also more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, especially when me being wrong means good things for the Indians. And boy was I wrong about Scott Elarton. Far from being out of the rotation by June, like I predicted, he's been a pretty nice innings-eater for the Indians. Probably the biggest key to his success is that he's lowered his walk totals dramatically, allowing him to stay in games longer. He also seems to spotting both his curve and fastball well; this keeps hitters off his high fastball. And of course you can't discount that Elarton has a good defensive outfield behind him. Will this last? It looks like it will the rest of the season, barring injury. Heck, Elarton has a better VORP (11.3) than CC Sabathia (10.0), although this probably says more about Sabathia than it does Elarton.

Something else I find interesting about Jhonny Peralta: he has the most home runs by a Indian shortstop in a season since Woodie Held's 19 in 1962. Held holds the team season record for home runs by a shortstop with 29 (although I think this is incorrect, as Held played 49 games at other positions in 1959, the year he set the mark).

EDIT: Omar Vizquel has the most home runs in a season since 1962 with 14 in 2002. This article, therefore, is incorrect.

Outside the Top 20 - The Relievers

2005-07-22T02:31:00.000-04:00

After I broke out my midseason updates, I received a couple of emails regarding some relievers that I left off the list, namely Chris Cooper and Edward Mujica. While both pitchers may make the majors and succeed, I don't rank them highly due to the highly volatile nature of relief pitchers. I listed only one true reliever (Fernando Cabrera) among my top 20, and his age, statistics, and closer potential made the decision for me. The other, Tony Sipp, is thought of as a future reliever, but has been starting for much of his professional career. This organizational philsophy (start first, relieve later) is one of the reasons why the following relievers are all in Akron or Buffalo. So, in no particular order, my top reliever prospects:

(1) RHP Fernando Cabrera. See my comments on him here.

(2) LHP Tony Sipp. See my comments on him here.

(3) RHP Andrew Brown
Acquired: Trade, 2004 (Milton Bradley)
Born: 2-17-1981
2005 Stats (AAA): 48.1 IP, 4.28 ERA, 44 H, 62 SO, 15 BB
Trend: Up
ETA: September (or sooner)

The ERA is a little bit misleading, because Brown has been dealing for a couple of months now. Brown is a big dude (6'6" 230), and he throws an "effortless" 93-95 mph fastball. The Indians left him in a starting role after they received him last year, but finally moved him into a full-time relief role in April. After a slow start (presumedly an adjustment period), Brown has settled into his role nicely. He's probably ready if the Indians need any further help in the bullpen, and may make parting with Bob Wickman and/or Bob Howry much easier.

(4) LHP Chris Cooper
Acquired: 2001 Draft (35th Round)
Born: 10-31-1978
2005 Stats (AA): 48.1 IP, 2.05 ERA, 41 H, 50 SO, 17 BB
Trend: Level
ETA: 2006

I don't have access to minor-league splits, but Cooper looks like a prime LOOGY candidate. Chris served as the Aeros' closer before his promotion to Buffalo. The 26-year-old has moved up the organizational ladder slowly, but if Scott Sauerbeck isn't back, Cooper could get a shot in 2006 at being the second lefty in the pen. If he isn't added to the roster, he's prime Rule 5 bait, his age notwithstanding.

(5) LHP Rafael Perez
Acquired: Non-Drafted Free Agent, 1-25-02
Born: 5-15-1982
2005 Stats (A+): 77.2 IP, 3.36 ERA, 54 H, 48 SO, 32 BB
(AA): 27.1 IP, 0.99 ERA, 20 H, 21 SO, 5 BB
Trend: Up
ETA: Late 2006

Speaking of LOOGYs, Perez looks like a perfect candidate if the Indians convert him to relief. His 2004 Baseball America Prospect Handbook entry mentions " a slider [that] is tough on lefthanders," which is a staple of most good left-handed relievers. He was fairly old for his league this year, but upon a promotion to Akron seems to have gotten a bit better. I'd almost guarantee he gets taken in the Rule 5 Draft, so I would think the Indians would aggresively promote him in order to make a good decision on whether to protect him or not. Perez could start or relieve in the majors, but I'd probably lean towards relief right now.

(6) RHP Edward Mujica
Acquired: Non-Drafted Free Agent, 10-22-01
Born: 5-10-1984
2005 Stats (A+): 26.0 IP, 2.08 ERA, 17 H, 32 SO, 2 BB
(AA): 12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 10 H, 14 SO, 1 BB
Trend: Way Up
ETA: 2007

When you combined strikeouts with control, you have yourself a nice relief prospect, especially considering how young he is. Mujica was a fairly medicore starter until this season, when he was thrust into Kinston's closer role. He performed above expectations, going a perfect (I think) 14-14 in save opportunities. Now he's in Akron, and peripherals look similar or even better when compared to his Kinston line.

Getting to the Bottom of the Offense

2005-07-20T15:44:00.000-04:00

Let me try to examine why the Indians can't seem to score any runs lately.

(1) Lack of patience. The Indian hitters are allowing starting pitchers for the most part to coast through six or seven innings a night, as I'm sure you've learned listening to RoboAnnouncer. What are the causes of this? I'm sure pressing has something to do with it; because the Indians haven't been scoring many runs, each hitter seems to take it upon himself to make up for everyone else. Besides Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, I see a lot of players swinging at the first fastball they see. And while that's great if you can hit that first pitch hard somewhere, it isn't so great if you pop it up or ground weakly to second base.

(2) Lack of Travis Hafner. Pronk has been by far the best offensive player in the lineup, and losing him for four games has made a mediocre offense downright anemic. Obviously the team isn't going win without him, but his absence illustrates the lack of other consistent offensive weapons. Right now, the Indians have a lot of just plain mediocre hitters in their lineup, which is fine if you have those two or three consistent run producers, but in the Indians' case there's no one that can carry an offense besides Hafner.

(3) Facing Good Pitching. The White Sox have by far the league's best pitching staff, and moreover the best starting rotation in baseball. But that doesn't totally excuse the lack of production against them last weekend. It's one thing to get shut down by a great pitching performance; it's quite another to just give up outs and hack at the first fastball you see. That's what made the four game series so frustrating; it wasn't just that the Sox shut the Indians down, but that the Indians themselves were willing accomplices.

(4) A Collective Slump. This has happened before with this team, and happens with other teams as well. I can't explain why these things happen, just observe that they do happen.

(5) Some bad luck. The Indians are hitting .258 with RISP; that's worst in the league. Their team BABIP (Batting Average of Balls In Play) is .290; only two teams have lower averages. This bad luck doesn't explain away all the Indians' problems, but it has a place in the discussion.

Just for kicks, here's the July OPSs of the Indians that regularly play:

Grady Sizemore: .479
Coco Crisp: .735
Travis Hafner: 1.277
Victor Martinez: .678 (mostly OBP driven)
Aaron Boone: .767
Jhonny Peralta: 1.007
Ronnie Belliard: .519
Ben Broussard: .575
Casey Blake: .478

I don't like to use three-week stretches to pass judgment on a player, but I think is useful to see where the problems are currently. Casey Blake has no earthly business in right field every day, given his age and career stats, but I've harped on that enough over the past year. Grady Sizemore's slump has really hurt the Indians in that Hafner has been coming up to bat with no one on base, and therefore, no one to drive in but himself. I'm for sticking with Grady in the leadoff spot, but that doesn't mean he should be exonerated of all blame. Ben Broussard is in one of his patented cold streaks. Ronnie Belliard generally fades down the stretch, but not usually this badly.

Jason Dubois probably isn't much of a short-term answer, but I'd feel a lot better about things if at least the Indians took a chance on him playing consistently, for at least you know there's some upside.

Defense for Offense

2005-07-19T02:12:00.000-04:00

Traded OF Jody Gerut to the Chicago Cubs for OF Jason Dubois

Mark Shapiro got his white whale, or at least this version of it. Jason Dubois is a masher, a guy who can hit for power, but doesn't really have a position. He's been playing left field for the Cubs, but he's a poor outfielder. He'll be under the team's control for the next 5+ years, and will be cheap for the next two seasons.

The problem (for me, at least) is figuring out where he's going to play. In the short term, the Indians might take the hit on defense to get Dubois in the lineup, but ultimately he looks more like a first baseman or DH. And you already have one guy (Hafner) who is pretty much a full-time DH, and another guy (Ryan Garko) who looks like a first baseman or DH. The other problem is that guys like Dubois tend to be a "boom or bust" player; if he sticks, the Indians will have themselves a 30+ HR player. Offensive, Dubois has a lot going for him; he can hit for power the other way, which is critical for a major-league power hitter. He's proven himself in the minors (2004 AAA numbers):

386 AB, .316/.389/.630, 31 HR, 26 2B, 97 SO, 41 BB

The problem is figuring out how to get him in the lineup. Hopefully, the Indians will run him out to right (or left) field for the rest of the season and see how he does. If he works out, you figure out where to put him next year. I don't want to see him given the Josh Phelps treatment and banished to the bench, only to see the light of day against left-handers. In his limited major-league at-bats, he seems to hit equally against righies and lefties. Note that he's been the right-handed half of a left field platoon for the Cubs, so he hasn't been receiving regular at-bats. Recently he was shipped back to Iowa, and went 9-18 in his short stint with the AAA Cubs.

As for Gerut, I've made my feelings known recently. The Indians lose a very good defender in the outfield, and he's a nice contact hitter, but with the production problems the team has been having lately, the Indians can't afford an outfielder with a defensive specialty. Now if they turn around and give the everyday job to Casey Blake, another miscast fourth outfielder, then there's something wrong here. Blake should probably be a late-inning replacement for Dubois, or spell Aaron Boone or the other two outfielders against southpaws. But he shouldn't be taking at-bats away from Dubois; the Indians owe it to themselves to find out what Dubois can do given an extended opportunity.

UPDATE: Some other opinions on the trade: BTF's Transaction Oracle, Tribe Report, Cleveland Indians Report, The Transaction Guy, and Cub Reporter

In other news, the Indians won a game in which Cliff Lee went the distance! Hey, it was only a five-inning game, but Lee got credit for the complete game. Cliff, after a shaky first inning, looked really good; he was spotting his curve and change for strikes. The Indians scored six runs, which almost matched their series total against the White Sox.

Reinstated RHP Rafael Betancourt from the Suspended List

Optioned RHP Fausto Carmona to Buffalo (AAA)

Believe it or not, no rookie has made their major-league debut for the Indians this year. And because Fausto didn't get in Sunday's game, he'll have to wait at least ten days in order to make his debut. Incidentally, Carmona pitched a gem for the Bisons tonight (8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 6 SO, 0 BB) but got tagged for the tough-luck loss.

Assorted Depressing Topics

2005-07-17T03:57:00.000-04:00

Why yes, folks....not only do I have depressing, vomit-inducing news and notes, but I also have various types of them!

Pitching prospect JD Martin is having Tommy John surgery. For those unfamiliar with the surgery, Martin needs the elbow ligament in his pitching arm replaced. If all goes well, JD should be fully recovered (ie, pitching normally) within 18-24 months. The good news is that most pitchers who have the surgery come back from as good as they were before. The bad is...well, he's probably going to miss the entire 2006 season, and probably won't be pitching normally until 2007.

Placed RHP Matt Miller on the 15-day Disabled List (forearm)

Recalled RHP Kazuhito Tadano from Buffalo (AAA)

I have no idea how long this stint will be for, but hopefully it's just a short stay; Miller has been one of the bullpen's unsung heroes, and I think has been misused as a longman. Tadano hasn't been all that great in Buffalo this year (75.1 IP, 4.54 ERA, 82 H, 64 SO, 17 BB), but he should be all right as a mopup pitcher. I believe Rafael Betancourt is technically off the disabled list, but I have no idea how much longer his suspension lasts. But whatever the case, Betancourt should replace Tadano when he returns. If Miller's injury isn't serious, it could be a blessing in disguise; most bullpen pitchers could use a couple of weeks off during the season to keep them effective.

Speaking of Betancourt, he's blaming his positive banned substance test on an OTC drug purchased in his native Venezuela. Juan Rincon, also from Venezeula, said last week that the league's testing program unfairly targets Latin players:

"Look at the percentages. How many guys (in the majors) are from Latin America? And how many tested positive?'' he said.

While I still remain skeptical of this being the case, I do admit that Bud Selig is running the program, and he has been known to screw up before.

Travis Hafner left Saturday's game after being struck in the mouth by a Mark Buerhle pitch; He went to an area hospital for testing. It should go without saying that Hafner is pretty much the Indians' entire offense right now, so hopefully there isn't anything seriously wrong with Pronk.

I think this Buerhle quote after Saturday's game summarizes the Indians offense perfectly:

"This was one of those days I should have gotten hit around harder more than I did," Buehrle said. "I got lucky. My control wasn't what I wanted it to be."

The more I think about it, the more I believe that right field is the area that despately needs an upgrade. If you could combine Gerut and Blake into one player hitting .273 with 10 home runs, you could take them in the lineup, but having one-half of a decent outfielder in the lineup every day won't cut it. You can live with Ben Broussard in the lineup, but having to hit him cleanup is a sign that help is needed. The trade market looks pretty unattractive, though, unless Moises Alou decides he can spend a couple months away from his father.

2002 Retrospective - Foreward

2005-07-15T16:05:00.000-04:00

In June 2002, Indians GM Mark Shapiro made a trade that shocked the baseball community: he dealt Bartolo Colon to the Montreal Expos for Lee Stevens and three prospects. At least that's how I saw the trade on ESPN's Bottom Line. Colon, after several years of disappointment, had finally seemed to make good on his massive potential. And given the organization's recent inability to procure pitching, trading the team's best pitcher with another year left on his contract angered a lot of people, especially the fans of Cleveland. After all, this deal followed on the heels after Shapiro dealing away Roberto Alomar, a popular player, to the Mets the previous winter.

Shapiro had decided that the time had come for the team to undergo a rebuilding process, and the Colon deal was the opening salvo of a massive demantling of a franchise in order to shorten the rebuilding window as much as possible. And with the farm system barren and not much money to use for free agents, Shapiro essentially nuked the roster, and over the next couple of months dealt pretty much everyone with some value for prospects. It was a very risky course of action, given the volatility of prospects, and given the backlash by the fans that still seems to exist today. But three years after the Colon deal, the Indians sit two games behind the Wild Card leader, and are six games above .500. And unlike last year's team, most of the key contributors are under the team's control for the next 4-5 years. While Shapiro has made plenty of mistakes since then, his decisions in 2002, including the one to break up the team in the first place, have placed the Indians in a great position going forward. This series will recap the context, the media coverage, and of course the trades themselves.

We start after the 2001 season, a year which saw the Indians win their sixth AL Central title in seven years.

Players Under Contract for 2002 (2001 WARP):

2B Roberto Alomar - $7.9M (11.6)
RHP Danys Baez - $4.125M (2.3)
OF Ellis Burks - $6.667M (5.0)
RHP Bartolo Colon - $4.925M (7.3)
1B Wil Cordero - $4.167M (0.2)
C Einar Diaz - $1.087M (6.3)
LHP Chuck Finley - $7.9M (1.5)
3B Travis Fryman - $5.82 (-0.1)
RHP Charles Nagy - $6.00 (0.8)
LHP Ricardo Rincon - $1.50 (2.1)
RHP Paul Shuey - $3.25M (2.3)
C Ed Taubensee - $1.8M (-0.2)
1B Jim Thome - $8.0M (8.0)
SS Omar Vizquel - $4.50M (4.7)
RHP Bob Wickman - $3.40M (6.0)
RHP Jaret Wright - $4.312M (0.2)

By this time, Travis Fryman, Charles Nagy, and Ed Taubensee were pretty much done thanks to injuries. Jaret Wright was in the midst of several arm surgeries, so he wasn't going to be counted on for much in the coming year. The bullpen looked to be in decent shape, with Baez, Wickman, and Shuey coming off stellar seasons. The rotation, on the other hand, didn't look so good. Bartolo Colon and CC Sabathia both had good seasons in 2001, but the back end of the rotation looked pretty bad. The offense remained more or less intact, although the team had to replace the entire outfield (Cordova, Lofton, Gonzalez).

Overall, this looked like a good team, but it was getting old and expensive. Of the starting nine, only Einar Diaz was under the age of 30.

Here's the pending free agents for the Indians (2001 WARP):

OF Marty Cordova (4.2)
OF Kenny Lofton (2.9)
OF Juan Gonzalez (8.3)
RHP Dave Burba (1.6)
LHP Rich Rodriguez (1.0)

Obviously the biggest name of the bunch was Juan Gonzalez. Kenny Lofton looked done as an everyday center fielder. There was some thought to bringing Cordova back, but only at the right price. But overall, there weren't too many holes to fill. The Indians were going to plug Milton Bradley in Lofton's place, but they needed two corner outfielders. And obviously they needed pitching.

Here's an excerpt from the Cleveland Plain Dealer, talking about the pending free agents (12/3/01, Paul Hoynes):

Gonzalez hit .325 with 35 home runs and 140 RBI in 140 games for the Indians. After Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi, he's probably the most desirable available talent.

But agent Jeff Moorad is going to have to create a market because of Gonzalez's history of injury. Moorad took a step in that direction by taking out a $50 million insurance policy on Gonzalez.

He has also crunched some numbers.

"In the last four years, Giambi has 141 homers and 490 RBI," said Moorad. "In the last four years, Juan has 141 homers and 492 RBI. And that includes Juan's season in Detroit.

"Giambi will play next year at 31. Juan will play next year at 32. That's something people don't realize."

The Mets are interested in Gonzalez. To a lesser degree, so are Atlanta and Seattle. There's a remote chance that Texas, where Gonzalez started his career, could make an offer.

Moorad says Gonzalez, a lifetime American Leaguer, will keep an "open mind" about switching leagues.

But friend Luis Mayorial said: "Juan considers himself an American League kind of player because of the DH."

Gonzalez started 119 of 140 games in right field.

"Juan would like to sign a six- or seven-year deal," said Mayorial. "He's very focused on reaching the Hall of Fame and winning a World Series. He put up his numbers this year. He doesn't need to be the highest-paid player in the game. He just wants to be paid his market value."

Lofton, 34, left the Indians as their all-time leader in stolen bases with 450. He was third in runs scored at 951 and ninth in hits at 1,463.

Agent Casey Close says the New York Yankees, Oakland and Baltimore have expressed the most interest in him.

"There is an obvious need for quality leadoff hitters," said Close. "If Kenny can stay healthy and get off on a good roll, he could definitely help a team. People can say what they want about Kenny's year, but it was still a solid year and a good second half."

Lofton hit .261 with 21 doubles, four triples, 14 homers and 66 RBI. He stole 16 bases in 24 attempts.

If the Yankees don't re-sign leadoff hitter Chuck Knoblauch, Lofton could replace him in left field with Bernie Williams playing center. In Oakland, leadoff hitter/center fielder Johnny Damon is a free agent. Lofton could replace Damon, or could play left if Terrence Long moves back to center. With the release of Brady Anderson in Baltimore, Lofton could hit leadoff.

"It all comes down to the need of the club," said Close.

Said one National League scout: "Lofton may have to move to left field, but I still think he could play center field two or three times a week on a championship club. He showed that in Cleveland."

Lofton's 16 steals were the fewest in any of his 10 seasons. His 66 RBI were the third most in his career.

"The game has changed," said Close. "The emphasis is on power and smaller ballparks. There aren't a whole lot of players out there stealing 60 to 70 bases a year. But if Kenny can stay healthy, I think he can still steal 40 to 50 a year."

Seth Levinson, Cordova's agent, talks to Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro a lot. The two-way conversation is always the same - Cordova would love to return, but the Indians need to make a trade to create enough room on the payroll to pay him.

The Yankees and Dodgers have expressed interest in Cordova, but only if they can trade Shane Spencer or Gary Sheffield, respectively.

Kansas City has promised Cordova an everyday job. The Royals need somebody to protect Mike Sweeney in the lineup.

Cordova, 32, hit his way onto the Indians in spring training. Then he hit .301 with 20 homers and 69 RBI in 122 games in the regular season.

"Cleveland is the perfect place for Marty," said Levinson. "He was playing on a great team, in a great ballpark in front of great fans. That's why he wants to go back, but we may not be able to wait."

Levinson says Cordova will get a three-year contract.

Other developments included the shopping of John Rocker, rumors of the Indians dealing Roberto Alomar to the Yankees, and talk of a long-term deal for CC Sabathia.

Back in Action

2005-07-14T01:14:00.000-04:00

Is it just me, or is the Wednesday after the All-Star Break the longest day of the baseball season?

There are a couple baseball games on TV, including the AAA All-Star Game. Three Bisons were starters: 2B Jake Gautreau, C Ryan Garko, and DH Ernie Young. Young is obviously not part of the club's future, but Gautreau and Garko both could figure considerably not only for the long-term future, but also in the second half. Gautreau, who's probably better as a third baseman, is probably coming up to Cleveland very soon, and Ryan Garko is moving permanently to first base within the next couple weeks. Gautreau is probably going to be backing up Belliard and Boone at first, and may end up taking some bats away from Aaron if he hits well enough. Either way, he'll be an offensive upgrade over Cora off the bench.

A quick update of the 2005 Draft Picks:

OF Trevor Crowe (1st Round): He hit .255/.345/.392 for Mahoning Valley before moving up to Lake County; he's hitting .333/.375/.367 for the Captains in 30 AB. I'd love to see the Indians move him to second base; that's the only spot where the Indians don't have any long-term solutions, be it at the major-league or minor-league level.

OF John Drennan (Sandwich): He's hitting .162/.238/.270 for Burlington, not surprising for a high-school player. The Indians don't have a Gulf Coast or Arizona League team, so high-school players have to break in a level too high.

1B Stephen Head (2nd Round): Absolutely mashed in Mahoning Valley: .432/.533/1.027 (6 HR, 4 2B). He's skipping Lake County, going instead to Kinston, where there isn't any true first baseman. In his K-Tribe debut, Head went 2-4 with a double, so he apparently didn't have too difficult a time in making the jump.

1B/OF Nick Weglarz (3rd Round): Has done a lot better than I expected: he's hitting .333/.379/.444 for Burlington. Nick won't turn 18 until December.

RHP Jensen Lewis (3rd Round): 14.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 9 H, 9 SO, 1 BB. Pretty good.

In preparation for the upcoming White Sox/Indians series, Vince Galloro of Exile in Wrigleyville invited me to chat about the two teams. Here's the transcript.

I'm working on a 2002 retrospective. I'll include excerpts from the local press regarding some of the moves, as well as give you a ton of background info on the players and the situation. I really think you'll enjoy it.

Survival Mode

2005-07-09T21:32:00.000-04:00

The Indians have had one of the roughest first-half schedules in baseball, so right now the number one goal should be to remain within shouting distance of the Wild Card lead. Today's victory over a the sizzling New York Yankees is exactly what the team needed; it kept the team at most two games back of the Twins, it stopped a four-game losing streak, and kept the team in sole possession of second place in the Wild Card race.

The win wasn't easy. The Indians were leading by four going into the eighth inning, when normally reliable Bob Howry gave up a cheap base hit to Robinson Cano, walked Gary Sheffield before somehow getting Alex Rodriguez to pop up to the first baseman. In came Arthur Rhodes - the left-hander miscast as a LOOGY - who promptly gave up a three-run bomb to Hideki Matsui.

After getting a crucial insurance run in the 9th inning, Bob Wickman was his usual self. First batter of the inning - home run. Second batter - base hit. Third batter - botched bunt. Thankfully Robinson Cano whiffed on his first bunt attempt, for later in the at-bat, he grounded into a 4-6-3 double play. Wickman then walked Gary Sheffield, bringing up Alex Rodriguez. At this point I was in the fetal position, waiting for the end. But, like most of Wickman's other saves, he somehow extricated himself by getting Rodriguez to harmlessly ground out to short. Is there another player in baseball who has great numbers yet is almost universally reviled by the fans?

Before the game, the Indians swapped out Brian Tallet for a position player:

Recalled 2B/SS Brandon Phillips from Buffalo (AAA)

Optioned LHP Brian Tallet to Buffalo (AAA)

During Friday night's game, Ronnie Belliard tweaked his hamstring running out a ground ball, so the Indians needed a middle infielder for the last two games of the series. I don't think Phillips is going to be up for too long (they'll probably option him back after Sunday's game), and judging by his at bats, it looks like the same Phillips. Mark Shapiro was talking up Jake Gautreau on the pregame show, so I wouldn't be shocked if he got the call after the break.

I already detest David Wells, so this comment didn't really make any difference as to how I feel, but just the same, the comlete and utter stupidity that comes out of his mouth continues to amaze me:

Boston pitcher David Wells said he understands why Texas pitcher Kenny Rogers shoved two cameramen, comparing the situation to a sexual assault.

"Some guy's being aggressive with a woman, and she says no, and he keeps on doing it. Well, you know what's going to happen. No is no in anything, when it comes to sexual or you know, whatever it is. No is no," Wells said during an appearance on Rhode Island radio station WSKO on Friday. "And I'm sure Kenny said, 'Hey, get it out of my face, don't do it.' But no, they want the big story, they want the scoop, you know?"

Wells added: "I probably would have done the same thing."

Rob Dibble's rant on Derek Jeter's absence from the All-Star game is a humerous read as well. I especially liked this blurb:

Second, can you imagine an NBA All-Star game without Michael Jordan or Magic Johnson? Neither can I, and Jeter is the Jordan of baseball.

heh.

Betancourt Suspended

2005-07-09T01:24:00.000-04:00

MLB today suspended Rafael Betancourt 10 days for testing positive for a banned substance. Unfortunately, we don't know what exactly this banned substance is. Betancourt's suspension takes effect immediately, which does happed to coincide with his time on the disabled list (although the club could have called up a replacement anyway). Betancourt is the third major-league player to test positive for banned substances under MLB's new drug policy. It is kind of interesting that two of the three are relievers (Juan Rincon and Betancourt), and the third is nowhere near what you'd call a power hitter (Alex Sanchez).

The Indians' response was one tinged with disappointment. The statement by Shapiro reads as follows:

Earlier today, Major League Baseball announced that RHP RAFAEL BETANCOURT tested positive for a banned performance-enhancing substance under the guidelines of Major League Baseball's Drug Testing Program. Rafael, who is on the disabled list, is suspended immediately for 10 days.

The Cleveland Indians strongly support Major League Baseball's testing program for performance-enhancing drugs. In addition to this support, we continue to implement an aggressive educational program at the Major and Minor League levels. We want our players to be aware of the short and long-term dangers of these substances. Until Rafael decides how he will address this finding, we will have no further comment on his situation.

Reading between the lines, it looks like Shapiro is really ticked off at Betancourt, something to keep in mind this offseason.

Transactions

2005-07-08T01:04:00.000-04:00

A bit more comprehensive view of the trade:

Traded IF Alex Cora to the Boston Red Sox for IF Ramon Vazquez

Optioned IF Ramon Vazquez to Buffalo (AAA)

The move can correctly be called a salary dump. Cora is the better fielder, especially at shortstop, but given what Jhonny Peralta has been doing, Cora was a luxury the Indians didn't really need. So they dealt Cora and the rest of his salary to the Red Sox for Vazquez, a cheaper utility infielder. A cursory look of Vazquez's career stats shows the ability to take a walk, along with a bit of speed. Besides that, he looks like a backup infielder out of central casting. He played quite a bit of shortstop in 2003 with the Padres, but was dealt (in the Dave Roberts-Jay Payton trade) with the arrival of Khalil Greene. In Boston, he didn't play much at all, and when did get in the lineup, it was garbage time. Like Cora, Vazquez hits left-handed. Apparently, the plan is to let Vazquez get some ABs in Buffalo, see if he starts to hit, and then bring him up to fill Cora's old role. Second base looks like Ramon's best position; he can play short, but not real well.

Where does this leave Brandon Phillips? I have no idea. If the Indians just make him a utility infielder, it would decrease some of his trade value. They seem to be leaning towards picking up Ronnie Belliard's 2006 option, and Peralta isn't going anywhere after what he's done this year. The Indians have been after Vazquez for some time, and tried to get him from San Diego last winter. They seem to see him as their utility infielder going forward, especially given his platoon split against right-handers. As far as Phillips is concerned, he's blocked at both positions, and he may be blocked by Vazquez for the utility role. This leads me to believe that Phillips is trade bait this July, and if not, certainly he'd be trade bait this winter.

Recalled RHP Fernando Cabrera from Buffalo (AAA)

Cabrera was the end to the string of events started by Rafael Betancourt going on the Disabled List. He's acquitted himself fairly well, with only a Jeter home run marring his record. He's being used in low-pressure situations now, but may work himself up the leverage ladder if pitchers ahead of him get dealt or get injured.

Recalled LHP Brian Tallet from Buffalo (AAA)

A short-term fix given who the Indians are facing. Tallet was scheduled to start on Thursday for the Bisons, so he could give the Indians some innings if one the starters gets knocked out during the weekend. Heck, maybe this time he'll actually get to pitch!

Alex Cora Traded...

2005-07-07T13:33:00.000-04:00

To the Boston Red Sox, per WTAM. The Indians are getting "a minor-league infielder."

UPDATE: The infielder is Ramon Vazquez, who will be reporting to Buffalo. LHP Brian Tallet will take Cora's place on the 25-man roster, so for the Indians will be going with 13 pitchers for the time being. I would think that Brandon Phillips will eventually be called up to take Cora's spot on the roster.

Singled and Doubled

2005-07-07T02:35:00.000-04:00

It was one of those games. If you watched last night's contest, you'll know what I'm talking about.

What is troubling, though, is that the lineup had absolutely no patience at the plate. Jeremy Bonderman cruised relatively unscathed until the eighth inning, when the Indians started some semblance of a comeback. Detroit, who was last in the league in walks, showed an immense amount of discipline, laying off CC Sabathia's never-ending supply of offspeed pitches in the dirt. Personally I think Sabathia out-thought himself. His fastball-changeup combo worked wonderfully against Baltimore the previous start, but CC changed his approach because the Tigers are a fastball-hitting team. Until he learns to spot his breaking pitches in the strike zone, teams will just lay off them; instead he might as well go with his 95 mph fastball and 85 mph changeup, because those two pitches are good enough to get most hitters out. He didn't really get hit hard by the Tigers (only two of their ten hits off him were for extra bases), but they could sit on a pitch, mostly his fastball.

Where has Jody Gerut's power gone? I don't care much for the modifications he's made to his swing; gone is the uppercut stroke, replaced by one almost like the one Barry Bonds uses. Gerut is still hitting for a high average, but his slugging percentage is dropping like a rock. Singles hitters who can play good defense tend to end up as fourth outfielders, and that's where Gerut's future seems to lie.

Right field is one of several areas where the team could use an offensive upgrade. The others are first and third base, although the team has steadfastly (or perhaps obstinately) stood by Aaron Boone. Barring injury, he will most likely meet the plate appearance threshhold necessary for his 2006 option to kick in. While I take no issue with Aaron's defense, an AL team simply cannot hope to succeed with a corner player hitting .195/.255/.354. As for first base, that will probably be addressed after the season, when the team will most likely deal Ben Broussard. I really don't see a circumstance where they'd open the 2006 season with him at first base, unless they make a major acquisition elsewhere.

Rick mentioned Aubrey Huff as a possible acquisition; I'll mention Raul Ibanez as someone the Indians could get on the cheap. Ibanez isn't a guy that would attract a ton of attention, but he's quietly had a very good season in a poor lineup. He currently is hitting .292/.355/.471 in a pitcher's park. The only problem is that he's a left-handed hitter. But he's someone to watch out for, as he's signed through 2006 for a relatively affordable salary.

Another guy who might be available is Texas' Kevin Mench, although he'll probably cost more to acquire. Mench, who didn't really earn a permanent spot in the lineup until this season, is hitting .290/.356/.550, although those numbers are inflated by where he plays his home games. The Rangers are obviously looking for pitching, both of the starting and relieving variety. But given the relationship between Shapiro and Texas GM John Hart, I'd be shocked if they haven't at least discussed Mench in the past few weeks. Mench isn't much of an outfielder, but he's right-handed and would fit nicely behind Hafner and in front of Victor Martinez. He's also making close to the minimum.

On Hafner

2005-07-06T16:19:00.000-04:00

Last night, manager Eric Wedge gave Travis Hafner a night off. The reason given was fairly understandable: Hafner had played in both halves of a doubleheader, and manager Eric Wedge wanted to rest Hafner in order to keep his elbow in check. So of course, when the Indians lost by a run, Jim Ingraham ripped Wedge for not playing Hafner:

It was a curious decision, given that the designated hitter is not, by definition, a physically demanding role, given that he gets to rest every time his team is in the field. Adding to the intrigue was that Maroth is a left-hander, and Hafner has the third highest batting average against left-handed pitchers (.289) of any player on the Indians' roster.

Apparently Ingraham forgot that when you swing a bat, you put a lot of stress on your elbow. And he also failed to mention that Hafner is hitting .324 against right-handers, also the best on the team. But that's beside the point; keeping Hafner healthy for the rest of the season is the important thing here. Because the Indians were short-handed on Monday, Hafner played both halves of the doubleheader. So because Aaron Boone was available on Tuesday, Wedge gave Hafner the night off last night. That's what this boils down to; it isn't difficult to figure out.

Now if Ingraham had complained as to how Wedge used his bench late in the game, I could have understood this article, but he seems to concentrate solely on Hafner's absence from the starting lineup. Just because Hafner is swinging the bat doesn't mean that he should be playing every day especially given his elbow problem. As a rule, you try to keep your best players healthy; this is why the starting pitchers are taken out after a certain number of pitches, and relievers aren't used more than 3 days in a row.

Now if Hafner was sitting because a left-hander was on the mound, it would be one thing. But apparently, a manager thinking of the long-term health of his player is idiotic.

Fireworks on the Fourth

2005-07-05T01:17:00.000-04:00

The Indians now stand ten games above .500, the team's high-water mark thus far. On Sunday and Monday, the team won three games rather easily, thanks to good hitting and very good pitching.

First, let's recap the small flurry of moves that happened in order to allow Jason Davis to start last night's second game.

(Before Sunday's Game)

Placed RHRP Rafael Betancourt on the 15-day Disabled List (shoulder)

Recalled RHP Kazuhito Tadano from Buffalo (AAA)

I have no idea how serious the injury, but if Raffy just misses the requisite fifteen days, the DL stint probably does him more good than harm. The move was retroactive to June 30th, when Betancourt first started to complain about the injury, but I'd think the Indians would like to wait until after the break to bring him back. Missing a key bullpen cog for a couple more days is a small price to pay for having him healthy and effective in August and September. Kaz Tadano filled Betancourt's roster spot on Sunday and the first game on Monday, and would have been the longman. It turned out that he wasn't needed.

(After Monday's first game)

Optioned RHP Kazuhito Tadano to Buffalo (AAA)

Recalled RHP Jason Davis from Buffalo (AAA)

Davis was brought up to start Monday night's game against the Tigers. Davis, who has filled in a couple times before, looked shaky at time against the Tigers, but got out of a couple jams and left after a scoreless six innings. In all probability, he's going right back down to Buffalo, where he should make his next scheduled start with the Bisons. At this point in his career, the thing Davis needs more than anything else is stability; he needs to be given the ball every fifth day until the end of the season, because he could start the 2006 season in the big-league rotation. In fact, he's probably Plan B if Kevin Millwood leaves at the end of the year. Tadano, thanks to good outings from Cliff Lee and Scott Elarton, wasn't needed, and he'll return to his role as the Bisons' longman.

So who comes up to fill Davis' spot before tomorrow's game? I'd have to think it would be Fernando Cabrera, and if it wasn't Cabrera, it'd be Andrew Brown. Both guys are on the 40-man roster, both have pitched well as of late, and each has good enough stuff to fill in for a week or so. Because Fernando is a week away from appearing in the Futures Game, it might make sense to see what Brown has now, and if he doesn't work out, then you can call up Cabrera just after the break, or reinstate Betancourt when he's healthy. Davis Riske seems to have recovered from week-long string of ineffective games, so you have some flexibility to work a youngster into the bullpen mix.

Of course, the All-Star Rosters were announced on Sunday, and with it brought the usual cacophony of jilted fans everywhere. I've learned not to care as much about All-Star rosters, because it's not really worth it. But it did gall me somewhat that the lone representative was Bob Wickman instead of Travis Hafner or [other Indians player]. It wasn't really Terry Francona's fault; he only picked four players to fill out the roster, and I believe all four were of the "one per team" variety. But picking Wickman as Cleveland's lone All-Star is a double whammy; you realize he's the only one that's going, and you just know that he'll do something idiotic if he's put into the game. I can just imagine it now: Mike Piazza beats out a chopper to the mound because the first baseman loses Wickman's toss in the lights, then steals second and third, and scores the winning run on a balk. Of course, if that means Boston doesn't get home-field advantage in the World Series, Terry Francona would have no one to blame but himself.

Back to Hafner for a bit. Now that Pronk has gotten his OPS just under the 1.000 mark, it should be interesting to see how many teams actually pitch to him in the next couple of weeks. Obvously Coco Crisp has been getting a ton of fastballs in the past month of so, but the 4-5 hitters, whoever they are, need to remain dangerous hitters to enable Hafner to swing the bat. This dovetails nicely into the speculation as to who the Indians are probably targeting. Mark Shapiro has been publicly stating lately that the team is looking into trading for someone to join Hafner in the middle of the lineup. Here's what Shapiro had to say in today's Morning Journal:

'Prior to talking to clubs, we have to determine which ones could be or are willing to trade,'' he said.

He figures the sooner he can add a big bat, the better off the Indians will be toward making a run at the playoffs.

''I'm not going to trade for a name or someone who is marginally better than what we have,'' he said. ''If there's not significant separation, we'll stick with the players we have.

''I believe these guys can win. If there is a move out there and a chance to bring in a guy with significant offensive production, we'll do it.''

Shapiro isn't overly concerned with messing up the Tribe's chemistry.

''It's always a concern,'' he said. ''It's my obligation to make the club better.''

It's nice to see this type of thinking. I don't want Shapiro to deal for Preston Wilson just to say "Look at me! I just traded for a name!" The deal has to make sense for this year as well as for the future. I'd be much more willing to lay off the picked-over rentals that are out there now and spend your prospects on 2-3 years of a guy like Mike Sweeney or Adam Dunn. Of course those types of deals are extremely difficult to consummate, but the payoff would be felt not only the remainder of this season, but in 2006 and beyond as well. Hopefully Shapiro can find last year's Larry Walker instead of last year's Richard Hidalgo.

All Your Bases Are Belong To Us

2005-07-03T00:49:00.000-04:00

If Kevin Millwood is going to continue to "hold" runners on base like he has recently, he can't walk anybody. Was he always this bad about holding runners during his National League days?

Anyway, before I head out for the Fourth, here's an unintentionally funny headline on the Indians' site:

Notes: Cora struggling to stay sharp
Limited at-bats new for former Dodgers starter

Also, notice the author of the article. heh.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Stepping Back

2005-07-02T02:13:00.000-04:00

The Indians beat the Baltimore Orioles again last night, and now are one-half game behind Minnesota for the Wild Card lead.

With the first three months of the season behind us, let's look at how the team is doing.

Pitching

ERA
AL Overall: tie-3rd (3.70)
AL Starters: 7th (4.21)
AL Relievers: 1st (2.80)

OPS Against: .693 (2nd)
K/9: 6.65 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.24 (3rd)

The pitchers are the reason why the Indians were even around the .500 mark at the beginning of June. From top-to-bottom, the pitching has been solid. Special mention must go the bullpen, which saved a ton of close games early in the year, keeping the team afloat. The starters have been solid, lead by Cliff Lee and, when healthy, Kevin Millwood. Jake Westbrook seems to have hit his stride lately. Even Scott Elarton, has pitched well (by his standards). Only the White Sox and Angels have allowed less runs.

Bullpen VORP:
(1) Rafael Betancourt - 13.2
(2) Matt Miller - 12.2
(3) Arthur Rhodes - 11.8
(4) Bob Wickman - 10.0
(5) David Riske - 8.6
(6) Bob Howry - 7.3
(7) Scott Sauerbeck - 5.0

Keep in mind that VORP is playing-time dependent, so Betancourt and Miller get higher rankings thanks to the larger number of innings pitched. But Matt and Rafael have done yeoman's work, essentially sharing the role traditionally held by the "6th starter" or longman. You could say that Matt Miller has been the best reliever on the staff, but you could also present compelling arguments for either Arthur Rhodes or Rafael Betancourt. Yes, I know Bob Wickman has the saves, but the real key to Wicky having the save opportunity is the guys pitching in front of him.

Holds:
(1) Arthur Rhodes - 11 (6th overall)
(2) Bob Howry - 10 (8th overall)
(3) Scott Sauerbeck - 8
(4) Rafael Betancourt - 6
(5) Matt Miller - 5

The Indians' relievers have the best of both worlds: depth and execution. This should help spread the innings load among all seven pitchers, which should help it stay effective down the stretch run. No reliever has gone more than 36.2 IP, and no reliever has appeared in a game more than 37 times. The starters do need to start going deeper into games, but unlike some other teams, the Indians aren't really relying on one or two relievers to finish games.

Starter VORP:
(1) Kevin Millwood - 20.6
(2) Cliff Lee - 18.4
(3) CC Sabathia - 9.3
(4) Jake Westbrook - 9.0
(5) Scott Elarton - 4.8
(6) Jason Davis - (-0.2)

For the most part, the starters have been pretty average, usually going 6 innings and leaving the rest for the bullpen. You'd like to see some of the starters start to go longer into games, and there are positive signs up and down the rotation. Kevin Millwood has looked like an excellent signing, and has become the de facto best pitcher on the staff. Cliff Lee is probably a very long shot to make the All-Star team, but he's been the staff's most consistent starter. Both Sabathia and Westbrook have had rough patches, although both looked outstanding in their most recent starts. As far as Scott Elarton is concerned, you just have to hope you can squeeze another three months worth of production from him, but if not, you take your chances with Jason Davis or Brian Tallet as the 5th starter.

Hitting

AL Runs Scored: 9th (359)
AL OPS: 5th (.752)
AL OBP: 10th (.323)
AL SLG: 5th (.429)
AL HR: 6th (90)

Since June 1st, the team has been hitting the bejeezus out of the baseball. The uptick coincided with two events; the firing of hitting coach Eddie Murray, and ascension of Grady Sizemore to the leadoff spot. I'm more likely to pin the blame on Grady, but that's because I can see what he's done, and couldn't see what Murray allegedly didn't do. Several players have shown marked improvement after slow to abysmal starts. Let's go to the individual VORP numbers (AL positional rank in parentheses):

1B Ben Broussard: 9.6 (8th)
2B Ronnie Belliard: 12.8 (6th)
3B Aaron Boone: -8.4 (Last)
C Victor Martinez: 10.9 (6th)
CF Grady Sizemore: 27.8 (2nd)
DH Travis Hafner: 30.9 (2nd)
LF Coco Crisp: 13.2 (8th)
RF Casey Blake: -0.5 (17th)
SS Jhonny Peralta: 16.3 (6th)

As you can see, things have gotten a lot better since last we looked at the hitters. Aaron Boone and Casey Blake are still replacement-level hitters, but guys like Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner have really gotten going recently. Most impressive is Grady Sizemore putting up excellent offensive numbers in what is essentially his rookie season. Jhonny Peralta is penalized a bit because he's sat more than he should have; even though he's been on the active roster all year, he still is not qualified for the batting title. That should change. It's pretty obvious that the team needs a large upgrade or three at the corners, but that's something best talked about as the trade deadline approaches.

Defense

Fielding Percentage: .982 (10th)
Defensive Efficiency: .7094 (4th)

I tend to gravitate towards the defensive effeciency measure, as it gives a more encompassing view of the defense. The Indians seem to have good range as a team, especially in the outfield. Although the team has no real candidates for Gold Gloves, everyone more or less does their job. Ronnie Belliard turns double plays very well, Aaron Boone is a marked improvement over Casey Blake in the field, and although Jhonny Peralta has had his lapses, he has acquitted himself well at short. I guess I'll summarize the defense thusly: the outfield has really helped the flyball pitchers, and the infield hasn't hurt the groundball hurlers.

So there you have it. The Indians don't appear to be "lucky" having the record they now hold, and every aspect of the club seems to be solid. Will this remain the same throughout second half of the 2005 season? I wish I knew; injuries can happen, ineffectiveness can happen. But from the information given, I can with a clear conscience say that this is a good team. Whether that translates into a playoff berth remains to be seen, but I certainly like what I see as of right now.

Prospect Rankings (Part Two) - June 2005

2005-06-30T15:44:00.000-04:00

This half was much more difficult to do, for several reasons. First of all, the difference between prospect #11 and #15 was about the same as the difference between #2 and #3. Also, it was difficult to figure out which prospects deserved a place on the list. There were several prospects that would have made this list easily had I done this in 2001. Because of the depth, I haven't included any member of the 2005 draft class, although I really like John Drennen, Trevor Crowe, and Nick Weglarz. Again, I've given the benefit of the doubt to more advanced prospects, even if they aren't putting up the same statistics in Akron as a prospect in Lake County. As far as I'm concerned, I like surer things, and it's a lot easier to project a prospect in AA than one with just a couple innings or at-bats in Eastlake.

(11) RHP Dan Denham
Acquired: 2001 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 12-24-1982
2005 Stats (AA): 92.0 IP, 3.52 ERA, 71 H, 61 SO, 26 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: Late 2006

Although Travis Foley has pretty much gone by the wayside, three of the four high school arms taken in 2001 are slowly but surely rounding into shape. Jake Dittler, the only one I rated before the season, has the worst numbers of the trio thus far. Martin, who I mentioned in the first half of the list, has the best line of any pitcher in the organization this year, but Denham's numbers have shown marked improvement his second time around in Akron. His hits ratio is way down, and he's upped his strikeouts to boot. Denham throws in the low 90s, and has three other complementary pitches (curve, change, and slider). As with any young pitcher, learning how to harness your stuff is half the battle, and Denham has shown improvement in his command and mound presence. He's one of several good Rule 5 eligibles at the end of the season.

(12) RHP Jake Dittler
Acquired: 2001 Draft (2nd Round)
Born: 11-24-1982
2005 Stats (AA): 95.0 IP, 3.22 ERA, 105 H, 48 SO, 33 BB
Previous Ranking: #9
Trend: Down
ETA: Late 2006

The ERA has gone down, but the strikeouts have as well for Dittler, who has stalled a bit in AA. He was the first of the 2001 high schoolers to make Akron, starting 2004 with the Aeros, but posted a 5.02 ERA. This season, he's given up less runs, but the peripherals look the same. Granted, Dittler makes use of a sinking fastball, and not having Corey Smith behind you probably helps him out, but he needs to miss more bats in order to be successful in the major leagues. Of course, they said the same thing about Jake Westbrook as he was progressing through the minors.

(13) LHP Chuck Lofgren
Acquired: 2004 Draft (4th Round)
Born: 1-29-1986
2005 Stats (A-): 31.2 IP, 1.42 ERA, 17 H, 20 SO, 17 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: 2009

I think the Indians may have found something with Lofgren. Drafted as a pitcher, he hit some last year in Burlington, and 10 at-bats convinced him that pitching was his ticket to success. As a 19-year-old, Lofrgen has made a fine full-season debut thus far, and has gotten better with each start. But I'm basing this on a very small amount of IP, so this is more of a hunch pick that anything. Lofgren has a pretty good fastbal (~92 mph)l and a slow (~75 mph) curve.

(14) OF Brian Barton
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2004
Born: 4-25-1982
2005 Stats (A-): 133 AB, .414/.506/.624, 14 2B, 4 HR, 21 SO, 18 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: 2008

I think it goes without saying that Barton dominated the Sally League. After all, he's 23, right? What's interesting, though, is that Barton had not taken a professional at-bat until he set foot in Eastlake. In any case, give credit to whoever spotted him, because the Indians might have themselves a steal. Since his promotion to Kinston, Brian has been merely mortal; he's hitting .261/.346/.522 in 23 AB.

(15) LHP Tony Sipp
Acquired: 2004 Draft (45th Round)
Born: 7-12-1983
2005 Stats (A-): 69.0 IP, 2.22 ERA, 71 SO, 19 BB
Previous Ranking: #19
Trend: Up
ETA: 2008

Tony looks to be on the Fernando Cabrera career path; the Indians think he'll be best suited out of the bullpen, but he's starting to get some innings in. After dominating the New York-Penn league last season, Sipp has been promoted to Kinston after a fine showing in Eastlake. Sipp's main pitches are a fastball and slider, so you can see why the Indians think he could be a future setup man.

(16) RHP Nick Pesco
Acquired: 2002 Draft (25th Round)
Born: 9-17-1983
2005 Stats (A+): 85.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 95 IP, 95 H, 55 SO, 21 BB
Previous Ranking: #13
Trend: Down
ETA: 2008

I'm not too concerned about Pesco, as this is his first full season in Kinston, and he's holding his own. Pesco has a low-90s fastball and a good changeup, as well as a slider.

(17) RHP Justin Hoyman
Acquired: 2004 Draft (2nd Round)
Born: 4-17-1982
2005 Stats (A-): 48.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 44 H, 36 SO, 18 BB
Previous Ranking: #17
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

Hoyman is on the shelf with inflammation in his pitching elbow. Before the injury, Hoyman had been pitching well in Lake County. Again, due to the pitching depth in the organization, he gets forgotten a bit, but that doesn't mean he's not a prospect. With pitching, you're going to have attrition, and having a lot of it means you have a better chance of developing a couple major-league arms. Hoyman has a fastball with good movement, as well as three other pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes.

(18) OF Jason Cooper
Acquired: 2002 Draft (3rd Round)
Born: 12-6-1980
2005 Stats (AA): 205 AB, .254/.359/.478, 9 2B, 11 HR, 67 SO, 30 BB
Previous Ranking: #15
Trend: Level
ETA: 2006

If Cooper is going to make the majors, it will be because of his bat. After a slow start in Akron, Cooper started to catch fire, and was recently promoted to Buffalo. Although there's a couple of veteren outfielders with the Bisons (Ernie Young, Andy Abad), Cooper's pretty much it as far as young outfielders are concerned, so if the team is looking for a left fielder for a long stretch, Cooper may get a shot. Now that's not likely this year, especially as long as the team is in playoff contention, but Cooper has some pop in his bat, and can take a walk. He's not ready yet, but he could be by next year at this time.

(19) RHP Bear Bay
Acquired: Trade, 2005
Born: 8-7-1983
2005 Stats (A+): 79.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 74 H, 82 SO, 14 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: 2007

Acquired for Cliff Bartosh, Bay has looked excellent in Kinston. The right-hander pitched just as well as Jeremy Sowers, and is probably next in line for a promotion to Akron. I especially like the 82/14 SO/BB ratio.

(20) 2B/3B Jake Gautreau
Acquired: Trade, 2004
Born: 11-4-1979
2005 Stats: 258 AB, .287/.348/.535, 20 2B, 14 HR, 49 SO, 23 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: Now

After being dealt to the Indians for fellow 1st-Round disappointment Corey Smith, Gautreau has finally started to deliver on the expectations. The problem is that Gautreau is more of a tweener than a third base or second base prospect. HIs defense isn't what you'd like to see at either position, which makes him more of a nice bench player than a starter in my opinion. With right-handers at second and third, Jake could be a nice addition to the bench if Casey Blake or Jose Hernandez (more likely) is dealt this year.

Pronk!

2005-06-29T02:23:00.000-04:00

Kevin Millwood's Pitching Clinic

2005-06-28T01:00:00.000-04:00

If you watched any of the previous series with Boston, you know how hot the Red Sox hitters have been (they recenetly pasted Philly pitching to the tune of 27 runs in three games). That makes what Kevin Millwood did all the more amazing. Kevin got out of a first inning jam, and was never seriously in trouble again. He pitched inside to left-handers like David Ortiz, got Manny Ramirez on high fastballs and outside curves, and really kept the entire lineup off balance during his six innings of work. If you take into consideration the opposition, Millwood's outing probably rates as the best Indian pitching performance of the year.

The Red Sox essentially gave the Indians five runs through shoddy defense. The Indians scored three runs thanks to an absolutely bonehead error by Mark Bellhorn, and two thanks to Trot Nixon's deflection of a Grady Sizemore fly ball over the short right field fence. You could say the Indians didn't need all those runs, but it did allow the back end of the bullpen to get some rest, and made the last three innings relatively stress-free.

Travis Hafner is making his case for the All-Star team. He hit his 12th home run of the season tonight, and while his numbers aren't as good as they were in 2004, I'd have to think his .293/.397/.526 line would be good enough in a year with a weak class of AL 1B/DHs. The other two possibles in my mind are Cliff Lee and Bob Wickman, although I'd much rather see Hafner or Lee than Wickman be the lone Indians representative.

Kyle Denney is apparently fine but still in a Buffalo hospital. He suffered a cerebral contusion (a bruise to the brain), a fracture of one his skull bones, and a ruptured eardrum. Those are obviously quite serious injuries, although the good news is that he never lost consciousness after the injury. Best of luck to him as he recovers.

Thanks for the feedback on the young arms; the second half of the top 20 should be up some time tomorrow.

Weekend In Review

2005-06-27T00:51:00.000-04:00

The Indians finished their twelve-game homestand 8-4 by winning this weekend's series against the Cincinnati Reds.

The series did start ominously, with the Reds winning on Friday in the same way the Red Sox won on Wednesday; by tying the game in the eighth and taking the lead in the ninth. In both cases the bullpen, which had for the most part been stellar all year, did not execute. Scott Sauerbeck, who had owned Ken Griffey his entire career, hung a curveball on the inner half of the plate in the eighth inning on Friday. Well, you know the rest. In cases like this, it's helpful to remember the sometimes frustrating but eventually edifying aspect of baseball; sometimes percentages do not go your way. Scott Sauerbeck may strike Griffey out every time he faces him until he retires, but for that one at-bat, Griffey won the battle. In the ninth inning, Felipe Lopez, in the midst of a breakout season doubled home Pena to take the lead.

One-run games, though, sometimes work the other way. For instance, take today's game. Victor Martinez fouled off four pitches against Reds reliever David Weathers before pulling a single through the right side. Game, set, match. Martinez had been hitting .207 left-handed to that point. Now Martinez is not that bad a hitter from the left side as the numbers say, but the percentages were what they were, and Reds manager Jerry Narron allowed Weathers to pitch to Victor. Sometimes you get the percentages, and sometimes the percentages get you.

The other game was a pure unadulterated whipping, although David Riske allowed four runs in the ninth inning before finally recording the final out of the game. Riske has been in a pitching slump lately, he has had trouble locating his offspeed pitches, which has opposing hitters sitting on his fastball. The good thing is that the Indians aren't dependant on Riske at this stage of the season to get the other team out in pressure situations. If the Indians had "one through nine" going last year with the hitters, they have using "one through seven" in the bullpen. Depth is extremely important in baseball, given the long season and all the things that can go wrong during it, and although there are a finite number of guys you can place on a roster, making sure that each of them can contribute positively to the team is a crucial goal to meet. This holds true especially when constructing a bullpen; if you have only a certain amount of people you can trust with a lead, you open yourself up to problems down the road, mainly the tiring of the arms that you do trust. Riske probably won't be pitching in anything but a lopsided game, so until he gets his control back, the Indians will have one less arm to use in late inning situations.

Victor Martinez is hitting .289/.385/.513 in June (76 AB).

I received a couple e-mails about Jhonny Peralta, especially regarding his placement in the order. And in retrospect, I over-reacted a bit. For one thing, the order of the lineup is really secondary to the specific players in it. For example, you could have placed every member of the 1991 Indians in the perfect spot in the lineup, and they'd still have finished last in the league in scoring. When you have bad players in your lineup, you will score less runs than if you have good players hitting. I guess my main beef was not really the placement of Peralta in the lineup, but the fact that he wasn't in the lineup as much as I'd like. With the first four places in the order (Sizemore, Crisp, Hafner, Martinez/Broussard) becoming solidified, I think little minutae like lineup order will become less and less of an issue.

Best wishes to Kyle Denney, who was hospitalized tonight after being struck in the head by a ball off the bat of Durham outfielder Joey Gathright.

To those reading this via an RSS reader, hopefully the formatting problems have been fixed.

I'm working on the final ten of my top 20 prospects, and I'm having to make some interesting decisions. Say what you will about the top couple of prospects, there's a ton of depth in the organization. I'll throw out five pitchers, and I'd like you to recommend three of them to remain in the top 20:

Nick Pesco (A+)
Dan Denham (AA)
Dan Cevette (A-)
Aaron Laffey (A-)
Bear Bay (A+)

A New Look

2005-06-24T02:07:00.000-04:00

I was straightening some things out to help the readability of the blog, and one thing lead to another. Feel free to post your thoughts here. Do you like the new look, or should I have kept the old one?

Prospect Rankings (Part One) - June 2005

2005-06-24T02:03:00.000-04:00

This seems to be a great time to review my prospect rankings, given that the first half of the season is over for many of the leagues, and also because there I don't really want to get into what happened last Wednesday.

Just a quick glimpse into where I'm coming from in putting together this list. I lean towards results rather than projectability, but I will in some cases defer to the player's upside. I also like prospects at AA or AAA, as there's less that can go wrong between Akron and Cleveland versus Burlington and Cleveland. With that said, on with the mindless speculation!

(1) RHP Adam Miller
Acquired: 2003 Draft (Sandwich Round)
Born: 11-26-1984
2005 Stats: N/A
Previous Ranking: #1
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

I'm keeping Miller at the top of the list because there really isn't anyone else I feel is better than him, and even though he just made his first start of the year. Miller had been sidelined until a couple days ago because of an elbow strain in Spring Training. If Miller is healthy, he's one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, with a tremendous fastball and slider combination. Check out his numbers in Lake County and Kinston last year and you'll see what I mean. A combination of low hit rates, at least decent walk rates, and high strikeout rates is the trifecta as far as young pitchers are concerned, and Miller so far in his professional career has all three. If he stays healthy, he could be a really good one.

(2) RHP Fernando Cabrera
Acquired: 1999 Draft (10th Round)
Born: 11-16-1981
2005 Stats (AAA): 39.1 IP, 0.92 ERA, 26 H, 55 SO, 7 BB
Previous Ranking: #7
Trend: Up
ETA: Now

You know that "trifecta" I was talking about? Cabrera has it also. Cabrera may be the best relief pitcher prospect in the minors right now, and he's pretty much ready for the big leagues whenever the Indians have a need in the bullpen. Fernando was originally a starter in the minors, but over the past couple of years have been eased into a relief role (although I believe the Indians thought he was going to be a reliever before that, but they get Cabrera as a starter in order to get him some innings). Just recently, Cabrera was moved into the closer's role in Buffalo, which may be a sign that he's being groomed as a future closer with the Indians. I can see him taking over Bob Howry's role next year, and then moving into the closer's role a year or two down the road. Cabrera has been chosen for the Futures Game next month as part of the World team.

(3) C/1B Ryan Garko
Acquired: 2003 Draft (3rd Round)
Born: 1-21-1981
2005 Stats (AAA): 240 AB, .271/.342/.500, 12 2B, 13 HR, 47 SO, 21 BB
Previous Ranking: #4
Trend: Level
ETA: September

Garko has been a pleasant surprise since he joined the organization, and he hasn't stopped hitting. Garko probably won't be a full-time catcher anytime soon, although he can probably hit enough to stick as a C/1B/DH like a couple other players have done. I made mention a couple days ago that Ryan could be a cheap upgrade over Ben Broussard if the Indians decide to deal him, or he can be a nice right-handed bat off the bench. Either way, I think he's with the Indians next season. Garko also is going to appear in the Futures Game as part of the US team.

(4) LHP Jeremy Sowers
Acquired: 2004 Draft (1st Round)
Born:
2005 Stats (A+): 71.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 60 H, 75 SO, 19 BB
Previous Ranking: #10
Trend: Up
ETA: 2006

Sowers has progressed pretty much on schedule, deserving his recent promotion to Akron. The left-hander has good off-speed pitches (especially his curve), and has a good idea how to use them. His fastball tops out in the high 80s, but with his curve in the low-to-mid 70s, his top-end speed shouldn't be much of an issue. If the Indians really needed him this year, he could probably pitch in September, but I doubt we'll see Jeremy in the majors until at least 2006, mainly because of 40-man roster considerations.

(5) RHP JD Martin
Acquired: 2001 Draft (Sandwich)
Born: 1-2-1983
2005 Stats (AA): 51.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 39 H, 61 SO, 7 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: Late 2006

Martin has become somewhat of a revelation; before this season, his numbers were very pedestrian for a pitcher picked that high in the draft. Then late in 2004, he starting upping his strikeout rates, and carried that trend over to this year. He's been sidetracked recently with a trip to the DL, but he returned last week pitching as well as he had prior to his arm injury. Also notice the low walk totals, which indicates that his increased strikeout totals haven't come at the expense of control. Three of the four 2001 bonus babies are pitching well in Akron this year, but Martin is the best of the bunch right now.

(6) 1B Michael Aubrey
Acquired: 2003 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 4-15-1982
2005 Stats (AA): 106 AB, .283/.336/.462, 5 2B, 4 HR, 18 SO, 7 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: Late 2006

I didn't bump Aubrey down on this list because of his performance on the field. The problem with him has been that can't seem to get on the field in the first place. Aubrey is still hitting well enough, but the injury concerns are starting to mount; it would be one thing if one major injury was what was holding Michael back, but it seems that he's gotten a lot of pesky strains and pulls, which doesn't bode well for his long-term durability. I still love his bat and his glove, but has to stay healthy to stay on schedule.

(7) OF Brad Snyder
Acquired: 2003 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 5-25-1982
2005 Stats (A+): 209 AB, .278/.365/.431, 10 2B, 6 HR, 64 SO, 24 BB
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

Snyder isn't having a breakout 2005, but he's met expectations, earning a promotion to Akron. Beyond the numbers you see above, Snyder has been very good in the stolen bases department; he's only been caught once in 13 attempts. He's still seen as a center fielder, although having Grady Sizemore ahead of him may block his progress in this organization. But there aren't too many high-level outfield prospects in the organization, and Franklin Gutierrez has had an awful time in Akron, so he might get a chance if there's some attrition among the current major-league crop of outfielders. Right now, the numbers don't really wow me, but he has some time on his side.

(8) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
Acquired: 2003 Draft (6th Round)
Born: 7-25-1981
2005 Stats (A+): 185 AB, .348/.398/.616, 17 2B, 9 HR, 40 SO, 14 BB
Trend: Up
ETA: 2007

The only real knock on Kouzmanoff is his age, and it really wasn't his fault that he had to pound Carolina League pitching for half the year before he got a promotion to Akron. The strikeouts are something to keep an eye on, as there's a big jump in pitchers' control from A+ to AA. Although the Indians might have caught lightning in a bottle with Jake Gautreau, Kouzmanoff is probably the best pure third base prospect in the organization. He could be ready by late 2006 if everything goes right.

(9) OF Franklin Gutierrez
Acquired: Trade, 2004
Born: 2-21-1983
2005 Stats: 211 AB, .227/.303/.355, 11 2B, 4 HR, 48 SO, 21 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: 2007

Wha' happened? Those are ugly numbers, especially for someone who's repeating AA. Gutierrez has had some nagging injuries over the past year or so, but I don't think you can just explain away this poor a showing with just injuries. The drop in power is especially a concern given the numbers he's put up in the past couple years. Heck, in Akron last year he slugged .466 at age 21. Perhaps Gutierrez is placing too much pressure on himself; recently he was moved out of the cleanup spot in order to help him relax more.

(10) RHP Fausto Carmona
Acquired: Free Agent, 2000
Born: 12-7-83
2005 Stats: 90.2 IP, 4.07 ERA, 100 H, 57 SO, 20 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: 2007

The problem for Carmona is that merely throwing strikes isn't going to get AA hitters out. He's giving up way too many hits and striking out too few in my opinion. He was recently promoted to Buffalo, but it appears it's mainly to fill in for Chad Zerbe, who went on the DL. With good prospects coming in behind him, Carmona may get squeezed out of a rotation spot before too long.

All Good Things...

2005-06-21T15:23:00.000-04:00

When the Indians lose a game like they did last night, I try to stay away from the keyboard for a bit, just to prevent myself from typing something stupid. And also, it's a lot better to think objectively about a game after you've had a while to cool off.

The Indians' hitters did as good a job against a pitcher as I've seen this. Team looking for an advantage on David Wells should just watch what Tribe hitters did in last night's game. Almost no at-bats were given way, the hitters did not bite often on Wells when he nibbled just off the plate, and when they did, they just fouled off the pitch. They didn't try to do too much with their opportunities, settling for singles instead of trying to gamble for a homer. They did not let Wells have an easy inning. The result was that Wells was done after the fifth inning, which exposed the juicy underbelly of Boston's bullpen to Indian hitters in the mid-to-late innings of the game.

If only CC Sabathia had put forth a mildly competent pitching performance.

Boston's lineup is difficult in that not only do most of the hitters make you work for each out, they make adjustments from at-bat to at-bat and make you pay for throwing the same pitch in a similar situation. Unfortunately, Sabathia did not simply change his method, but tried to throw his fastball with more velocity instead. I guess that's an easy temptation for a pitcher with great stuff, but it often leads to disaster when you face smart hitters. Now some hits given up by him were not entirely his fault; Manny Ramirez hit his homerun off an ankle-high offering, which maybe three or four players in baseball could have hit. Ramirez's broken-bat double in the fifth was not Sabathia's fault at all, but the the fastball down the runway to Jason Varitek was. It's not the runs I get concerned about, because sometimes a pitcher just gets plain unlucky; it's the approach that Sabathia showed that concerned me. Having great stuff is one thing, but the great pitchers know how to use it to their advantage. Sabathia has "pitched" many times this season, but last night, he just "threw".

It's easy to say that replacing Eddie Murray with Derek Shelton has been the reason why the Indians are hitting again. The only thing that we know is that they are hitting better; I'll leave the guessing to someone else. Just like with pitching, approach matters with hitters, and the Indians are approaching their at-bats like they did a year ago. Travis Hafner, who was perhaps the one hitter in the lineup that has been consistent with his approach, put together a simply amazing at-bat against Alan Embree last night, culminating with a home run to deep center field. Victor Martinez followed with a home run to left field off of closer Keith Foulke, which is also a good sign. While Martinez hasn't gotten his average up yet, he's walking a lot more than he did early in the season. His OBP is now above .300, and he's starting to hit for power from the left side of the plate. He's hitting .271/.375/.475 during the month of June. While you can write that off as a small sample size, look at his body of work in the minors and majors and you can reasonably say that he should be able to keep that line up through the rest of this season.

About this time last year, Ben Broussard went through a slump much like he's doing now. I think it's safe to say that Broussard looks like a really streaky hitter, and the peaks aren't really worth the valley. I wouldn't be surprise to see Ben end up with decent numbers, but I think if the Indians can find an upgrade at first base after the season, they should do it. Although the AL first baseman have been REALLY bad this year, that shouldn't be an excuse to give Broussard a long-term deal or a large arbitration payday.

I think the Indians have figured out that Casey Blake isn't a player you want as your everyday right fielder, and to their credit they're making him a sort of utility player. Heck, for Casey's long-term future in major-league baseball, this shift might be best for him. He's shown he can play the outfield well, and of course he can play both third and first base. Unfortunately for the Indians, they signed that type of player last offseason; Jose Hernandez. With Jake Gautreau worthy of a look and Aaron Boone sticking around another year thanks to the vested option, Blake might be trade bait in the offseason if they can find someone who really wants him. Speaking of Gautreau, he's now hitting .296/.343/.556 with 14 HR and 19 2B in Buffalo. He can probably play at second base as well as third, so I think he's worth a roster spot next year, and he should certainly be placed on the 40-man roster next November.

Also hitting well is Ryan Garko (.271/.344/.504), who seems to have recovered from a slow start in frigid Buffalo. He's another player that's a good fit in at least as a right-handed platoon for Ben Broussard (if he's still here). He might be a cheap upgrade as an everyday first baseman, or could even fill in at catcher for a couple weeks at a time.

While the overall hitting prospects have left a lot to be desired this year, the Indians system has quite a bit of depth as far as pitchers are concerned. You have a couple of older pitching prospects at Buffalo (Tallet, Traber, Davis) who could come up and enter the major-league rotation if needed, a good young rotation (Dittler, Denham, Martin, Carmona) in Akron, and guys in Kinston (Sowers, Bay) who would be in Akron already if not for a logjam in AA. Then of course you have Adam Miller and Scott Lewis, both highly-regarded pitching prospects working their way back from injuries, some interesting reliever prospects (Fernando Cabrera, Edward Mujica, and even Jose Diaz), and even breakout prospects like Tony Sipp. I can't remember when last the Indians had a pitching stable this deep. This is something to remember if the Indians are in a position to add some players in late July; they have the pitching depth and the pitching prospects to match just about any other organization.

Be sure to check out Alex's interview with Indians draft pick Joseph Hunter. The Hardball Times has an article on last Sunday's game against Arizona

Enjoying the Ride

2005-06-20T02:36:00.000-04:00

Yesterday's post was my way of putting everything in perspective. If you accept that Bob Wickman is the best closer in the league, then you'll be that much more disappointed when he regresses towards the mean. That being said, you have to at some point just enjoy this winning wave until it finally crashes upon shore, as long as you understand that it happens. The opposite is true as well; revisit this column for a great example of sports myopia.

I suppose it is a staple of baseball fans to get really high during the winning streaks and irate and depressed during the down stretches. The body of work is important in evaluating anything in baseball, and right now the Indians are 37-30. As Bill Parcells might say, you are what you are, but you can take some things from recent events as signs of future events; how you got there can tell you where you are going.

The offense has been much better lately. The Indians' line in June is .262/.318/.460, a drastic improvement over what they did in April (.228/.293/.376). Aaron Boone, Casey Blake, and Victor Martinez are hitting much better lately, although Ben Broussard seems to have entered one of his cold streaks. That the club has patched up most of their offensive holes is a big reason why the team has one nine straight. The team could probably use a veteren bat to hit behind Hafner in the order, but for now, "one through nine" has to suffice.

The pitching has maintained its excellence, which is the biggest reason for the streak. The rotation's fourth and fifth starters pitched well against a good offensive team this weekend, and the staff's overall ERA now stands at 3.50, best in the majors. What's even more impressive is the opposition's OPS, which is .674, more than twenty points lower than the second place staff. Kevin Millwood is now healthy, and the bullpen is deep and good. When you don't have a weak link on your pitching staff, you force the other team's pitchers to beat you.

That being said, the pitchers are going to get a real test in the next two weeks; the Indians face some of the best offenses in baseball before the All-Star Break. Boston, who the Indians next face, rank second in the AL in runs scored, and Baltimore (June 30, July 1-2) ranks fourth. Cincinnati, for all their pitching problems, can still put runs on the board (2nd in the NL in runs scored). The good news for the Indians is none of the teams have that great of pitching staffs. The Indians miss Boston's best starter, Matt Clement in the upcoming series, so that's a big break. But watch out for David Wells, tomorrow's starter; he's shut down St. Louis and Cincinnati in his past two starts, allowing only 5 hits in his past 15 innings pitched. Of course, he has emotional ties with the Indians fans, so I'm sure he'll get a warm welcome as he warms up in the bullpen.

Unsolved Mysteries

2005-06-19T02:12:00.000-04:00

I'm no Robert Stack, but frankly these unexplained events require some examination:

1. Which alien being has taken over Scott Elarton's body?

I guess an interesting follow-up would be "Why?" Against a lineup that on paper would shell him, Elarton calmly threw high fastballs and curveballs to Troy Glaus and Luis Gonzalez and got away with it. Heck, he even struck out three Snakes to boot. I cannot speak to the motives of the alien(s) now inhabiting Elarton's body, but I do wish them to remain there until the season is over with. And maybe the Indians need to send a scout to their home planet, because they seem to have a natural understanding of pitching.

2. Which deity has Bob Wickman sold his soul to in order to save games?

Now, I like Bob. Before the season I speculated that his "presence" would allow the other guys in the bullpen to do what they do best and leave the heaving lifting to Bob. But never in my wildest dreams did I imagine that he would be almost perfect in save opportunities despite having really bad peripherals. I believe the reason why Bob does not hold runners on is because he already knows the outcome of the game. Or perhaps he's also been taken over by the same creatures who are now inhabiting Elarton's body.

3. Why is Jhonny Peralta batting ninth in the order?

After 2.5 months, a couple spots in the order are pretty much spoken for. Grady Sizemore is the leadoff hitter. Coco Crisp is the second hitter. Travis Hafner hits cleanup. And, of course, Jhonny Peralta hits ninth. Now, if this were the 1995 Indians we were talking about, I could somehow understand this. But when you have Casey Blake and Josh Bard hitting in front of Jhonny, I see a big problem with the banishment. Perhaps I'm underestimating the vitriol some Omar Vizquel supporters have for Peralta; after all, he was the main reason why Omar! is plying his trade in another city now. Peralta leads the team in slugging percentage, has eight home runs, and has somehow amassed 23 RBI despite hitting behind Aaron Boone and Casey Blake most of the season. Would moving him up to the 6th or 7th spot kill his confidence?

4. Why did Eric Wedge shave his mustache?

Ah...sorry. Someone else has gotten to the bottom of that case.

Life's A Beach

2005-06-18T02:36:00.000-04:00

Tonight was beach night at the Jake, and the Indians kicked sand in the face of Arizona pitchers all night.

The offense started with...what else?...patience at the plate. The Indians made starter Brad Halsey go deep into counts, with Travis Hafner's at-bat in the third inning a great example of what can happen when you make a pitcher throw a pitch in your zone. If Hafner had tried to pull Halsey's fastball, he probably pops it up, but he went with the pitch, lined it into the left field gap, and the run parade commenced. Casey Blake, while he's now just above the Mendoza Line, hasn't lost his power; he hit his 9th of the season tonight, surpassing Ronnie Belliard for the team lead.

The team's two youngest players - Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta - hit back-to-back home runs in that third inning. Peralta, who has done nothing but hit when he's played, now is slugging .526, which would place him second only to Miguel Tejada among AL shortstops if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Sizemore is now hitting .308/.349/.483, and his OPS is second only to Johnny Damon among AL center fielders. The infusion of young talent is vital to the continued success of a team like the Indians for obvious reasons; they can give the Indians a huge advantage over other clubs who can't develop/acquire these players themselves. The Indians can't go out on the market to sign a shortstop with power or a 4-tool center fielder, so they have to develop them in-house.

Cliff Lee wasn't that great, but he stuck around five innings to get his 8th win of the season. Although the bullpen was used again, only two pitchers (Riske and Miller) were required to finish the game, so Wickman, Rhodes and Howry all should be able to go on Saturday and Sunday if need be.

Unfortunately for the Indians, every team ahead of them in the divisional and wild card races won. On a related note, have you noticed the AL's record against the NL this season? Only two AL clubs (Tampa Bay and Oakland) have losing records against the National League. The AL Central is collectively 38-22 against the NL.

While no Cleveland Indian has 10 home runs thus far, SIX Buffalo Bisons have 10 or more home runs in three more games played. Included among the six are Brandon Phillips, Ryan Garko, and Jake Gautreau, all of which are still considered prospects. But the best hitter on the team has been minor-league vet Ernie Young, who is hitting .306/.404/.568 for the year. And for those interested, the Bisons' home park is rated a pitchers' park by Baseball America.

The Indians face Brandon Webb, one of the game's best young pitchers tomorrow. Webb has baseball's highest GB/FB ratio at 4.21; Jake Westbrook is second. What Webb does that Westbrook doesn't do is strike batters out as well; he combines that high ground ball ratio with a fine 7.18 K/9. That's a great combination to have, especially if you pitch in a hitters' park like Webb does.

34-30

2005-06-17T00:20:00.000-04:00

It wasn't pretty, but the Indians swept the Rockies tonight despite Bob Wickman's best effort to blow a save. Why he continually allows runners to take bases is beyond me; I'm sure Eric Wedge has talked to him about this more than a few times, and hopefully it won't take a blown save or two to convince Wicky to, you know, try to hold a runner once in a while.

Kevin Millwood only went five innings, but seemed to get better as the innings progressed. Thanks to the meticulous John Sanders for letting me know that Millwood threw 33 pitches in the first inning, All those pitches in the first inning shortened his start and made the bullpen go a extra inning. I liked that Howry pitched the seventh and Rhodes the eighth, because the matchups favored Arthur in that inning. The defense helped out as well; Ronnie Belliard made a nice double play to get out of a jam (caused by his error), and Coco Crisp and Jody Gerut made nice diving/sliding stops in the outfield.

Jhonny Peralta didn't play tonight, but there was a legitimate reason this time; Peralta hyperextended his elbow in last night's game, so he got the night off in order to help the injury heal.

Ben Broussard left tonight's game to be with his wife for the imminent birth of their first child. Congrats, Ben!

Thanks partly to Omar Vizquel, the Giants beat the Twins tonight, so the Indians end the day 8.5 games out of first place, and three games behind Minnesota (and the wild card lead).

Aaron Boone in June: .317/.396/.634. Baby steps....

Next up are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a pretty good offense, and a suspect pitching staff, with their bullpen shouldering the largest share of the blame. Check out what 1B Tony Clark is doing:

125 AB, .352/.388/.712, 10 2B, 11 HR

The good news is that the Indians miss Javier Vazquez. The bad news is that they face two southpaws during the series, so that probably means two more games with Casey Blake in right field.

That Was Impressive

2005-06-16T01:21:00.000-04:00

After CC Sabathia left the game in the fourth inning, the Indians used six relief pitchers. This was their collective line:

7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 13 SO

Last year, there were maybe two guys I wanted to see in with the game on the line. This year, I don't care who comes out of the right field bullpen; they all are pitching well.

Aaron Boone looks to have found his hitting stroke again; he had good at-bats tonight, and of course the payoff for him came in the 11th inning. I've been ripping on him all year, so I have give credit where it's due.

Alex Cora better get used to pinch running and being a late-inning defensive replacement, because that's all he'll be doing for a while. Jhonny Peralta's 9th inning home run off Brandon Fuentes (who by the way, has one of the weirdest deliveries I've seen) was a great piece of hitting.

After the game the Indians announced a couple transactions, neither of which are too shocking:

Reinstated RHSP Kevin Millwood from the 15-day Disabled List

Optioned RHP Jason Davis to Buffalo (AAA)

Davis needs regular innings, and he's not going to get them pitching in long relief. I would guess Davis is still starting, although the Bisons might utilize a "tandem starting" system, seeing that they now have seven starters on their roster. I believe they did this the other night, as Kyle Denney pitched the first five innings, and then manager Marty Brown brought in Steve Watkins to start the sixth. Getting Millwood back is obviously a good thing. Kevin didn't go out on a rehab assignment, so he might be on a pitch count tomorrow. Scott Elarton would probably be available if need be.

32-30

2005-06-15T01:10:00.000-04:00

Unfortunately for the Indians, being two games above .500 means that they are still nine games out of first place. The Indians are still five games out of the wild card race, with three teams ahead of them.

But let's not dwell on that right now.

The Indians pounded the Colorado Rockies tonight 11-2. The Rockies have won only four games on the road this year, so Cleveland did what they needed to do. And in the process, they got Jake Westbrook a well-deserved win. Westbrook is not a 2-9 pitcher, or even a 3-9 pitcher. As I've touched on recently, Westbrook has been just plain unlucky this year. You could say that this is Jake's luck evening out, but all things being equal, Jake should be a .500 pitcher with an ERA hovering around 4.25 or so. Just compare his numbers from this year compared to last:

K/9
2004: 4.84
2005: 4.90

K/BB
2004: 1.90
2005: 1.88

H/9
2004: 8.68
2005: 8.71

GB/FB
2004: 2.72
2005: 4.00(!)

I guess this shows how volatile an extreme groundball pitcher can be.

The Indians offense looks to be getting healthy. And I'm not really saying this just based on the amount of runs they scored tonight; the approach at the plate is what makes me more excited. Even Aaron Boone, everyone's favorite whipping boy, had some very good at-bats. What does that mean? The Indians have been pretty good the whole season at hitting for power; but they haven't been getting on base, whether that be via the hit or the walk. The Indians currently rank dead-last in the AL in OBP at .311, and while a lot of that has to do with a very low batting average (.248), the team does a service to the opposing pitching by not working counts; it keeps the starter in games longer, and sets up the bullpen in the late innings.

Recently, though, I've noticed that the hitters aren't chasing as many pitches out of the strike zone as they have been. Pitch recognition is extremely important to a hitter; by swinging at balls in the strike zone, the hitter has a much better chance of making solid contact. And the offense as a whole needs to get better in that department, even in the month of June, they still rank in the bottom half of the AL in most offensive categories. But I'm seeing some signs of progress.

Some random thoughts:

I had no idea that Matt Anderson, former high-velocity bust, was still in the majors. But I can say with certainty that Travis Hafner is glad he's still around; I can't recall when last someone hit a home run into the mezzanine deck in right field.

Grady Sizemore's stats remind me of another center fielder who debuted at a young age: Rocco Baldelli. Rocco hit .289/.326/.416 his rookie year, and of course the only knock on him was his lack of walks. His next year, Baldelli improved his walk rate a bit and hit for more power (.280/.326/.436), so that's a pretty good trend for the future.

A lot of people keep wondering whether Jhonny Peralta may someday have to shift over to third base. If I were running the Indians, I'd wait until it was absolutely necessary to move him there before I did so, judging by what shortstops are being paid. Jimmy Rollins, who is a pretty decent shortstop, just got a deal worth $40M over five years to remain in Philadelphia. I guess what I'm getting at is this: you keep Peralta, who can hit you 20-25 home runs a year at shortstop because he's worth a heckuva lot more there than at third base. Now if Brandon Phillips can prove that he can hit at the major-league level, then you can start thinking about a position change for Peralta. But there should be a real good reason for him moving right on the defensive spectrum.

If the Indians are still out of it come July, they do have a lot of valuable trading chips. Number one would obviously be Kevin Millwood, but Bob Wickman may fetch some nice prospects as well. After all, he's a "proven closer", and there are a couple contenders (Atlanta, Texas, Boston, the Cubs, and Florida come to mind) who really need help in the bullpen. Now I'm not saying that Wickman will fetch a Sexson-esque prospect, but if there's enough interest, the Indians could come away with a nice haul. Bob Howry, Scott Sauerbeck, and even Jose Hernandez also could be candidates for dealing. I'm not writing off this year by any stretch of the imagination, but the Indians could set themselves up for 2006 rather nicely if the White Sox and Twins continue to run away and hide from the Indians. There's not much of a chance that Millwood would sign with the Indians before he reached free agency, and Bob Wickman isn't the guy I want closing over the next few years. The Indians really need a corner bat, whether that be at first, third, or the outfield, and they could get a high-level prospect if someone is desparate enough at the deadline. I'll get more into this if events warrant.

A 7-5 Road Trip

2005-06-13T01:37:00.000-04:00

That's pretty good considering three of the four teams on the trip were 10 games above .500 when the Indians played them. Depending on what happens in today's game between the White Sox and Padres, the Indians may end the trip less than games back of Chicago, but more importantly, they can finish the day five games back of the wild card leader (currently Minnesota).

Update: The White Sox won in extra innings, so the Indians remain 10.5 games back

The constant on the West Coast swing was the pitching, but the hitting picked up when the Indians reached San Francisco. The Giants, who are in the midst of an awful stretch of baseball, gave up 22 runs to the Indians over the weekend, which I believe is the most runs scored by the Indians in a series this year. Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, and Ronnie Belliard provided much of the offensive punch on the road trip, and Aaron Boone and even Casey Blake got important hits during the 6-game stretch. With a season-long twelve game homestand upcoming, the Indians have a golden opportunity to run off some wins. First on the homsetand is the Colorado Rockies, owners of the worst record in baseball.

Other good news includes the return of Kevin Millwood, who should come off the DL before Thursday's game against Colorado. Jason Davis will probably get optioned back to Buffalo, but with six starters already on the Bisons' roster, it should be interesting to see how the logjam is resolved. But more importantly, the starting staff gets solidified with the addition of Millwood. Here's a VORP update of the staff:

Sabathia 18.9
Lee 17.7
Millwood 16.4
Westbrook 1.3
Elarton 3.0

Riske 13.4
Rhodes 12.4
Betancourt 8.3
Howry 7.9
Miller 6.7
Wickman 6.2
Sauerbeck 2.2

That's pretty good, especially for the bullpen, where the Indians don't have any real weak links. As bad as the bullpen was last year, it's been that good this year.

My trade target for the week is Austin Kearns, who was just optioned to AAA by the Reds. Kearns hasn't been able to stay healthy throughout much of his young career, but the guy is a very talented player; this is a perfect time to buy low on him, now that Willy Mo Pena is back in the lineup for Cincinnati.

Here's some of the recent minor-league moves:

Traded OF John Rodriguez (AAA) to the St. Louis Cardinals for C Javier Cardona (AA)

Rodriguez was caught in a numbers game with the demotion of Ryan Ludwick and the promotion of Jason Cooper. Rodriguez was hitting a fairly pedestrian .247/.323/.447 this year after a good campaign in 2004. Cardona is a minor-league vet (he's 29 years old), and is a depth pickup

Promoted OF Jason Cooper to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)

Cooper, who I was ready to write off after a slow start this season, was hitting very well for the Aeros (.254/.359/.478) by the time he was called up.

Reinstated RHP Kyle Denney from the Disabled List (AAA)

I don't know who's out of the rotation, because the addition of Denney would mean six starters (Denney, Traber, Tallet, Guthrie, Cruceta, and Watkins) on the roster.

Released OF Darnell McDonald from Buffalo (AAA)

Released RHP Kyle Evans from Akron (AA)

The writing was on the wall for Evans, who had bounced around in the organization the last couple of years.

Promoted OF Brad Snyder to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

The 2003 1st round pick reaches Akron pretty much on schedule. Snyder hasn't had a great season thus far, but the peripherals are still decent. It should be interesting to see whether he or Franklin Gutierrez is the everyday center fielder for the Aeros.

Placed 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff on the Disabled List (A+)

Another injury for a top prospect. Kouz probably would have been promoted to Akron by now, he was hitting .346/.398/.616 for the K-Tribe.

Activated SS Brandon Pinckney from the Disabled List (A+)

Transactions - Non-Cleveland Version

2005-06-10T20:43:00.000-04:00

In the past couple days, there have a couple moves involving ex-Indians or players that could have been Indians.

Obviously the one that piqued my interest was the trade involving Placido Polanco and Ugueth Urbina. Yeah, Detroit threw in a utility infielder, but to me that's neither here nor there. Urbina is a better prize than Howry is now, but still the difference between Urbina and Howry isn't that much. Detroit can stick Polanco at second base, and shift Omar Infante, who hasn't been hitting this year, to the bench. Now obviously their bullpen gets weaker, especially considering Troy Percival's health, but by the same stretch they improve their offense, and it's a low-risk trade for them; both Urbina and Polanco are free agents at the end of the year, and the Tigers can still flip him for a prospect or two by the end of July if they remain out of the race.

I'm less disappointed that the Indians didn't the trade now that Aaron Boone has started to hit. Granted, he's still hitting below the Mendoza Line, but no longer are his at-bats futile attempts to hit the ball. Aaron is not chasing pitches down and away as much as he did before, which may pay dividends in the form of pitchers going to the inner half of the plate. Am I pronouncing him cured? Of course not; the damage he's inflicted upon the lineup isn't going to go away in the span of a week. But there's finally hope. Now that Casey Blake has been relegated to bench duty and Boone is starting to resemble a major-league position player, the lineup sickens me less and less every day now.

Another interesting move involved former Indian Ryan Drese; the Rangers designated him a couple days ago, and the Washington Nationals have just claimed him on waivers. Last year Drese was one of the better starters in the American League, relying on his sinker and low walk rates to get hitters out. Sound familiar? While Jake Westbrook has fallen off a bit from last year, Drese's numbers completely collapsed; he's walked (24) more than he's struck out (20), and his hit rate has been awful (96 in just about 70 innings pitched). So even though the Rangers signed him to a multi-year deal last offseason, they put him on waivers. Now there's a chance Drese can still be a useful pitcher, but his tale is cautionary one; you can't succeed forever without meeting minimum standards. Note that Jake Westbrook hasn't pitched as badly as his 2-9 record might indicate; a 5.00 ERA in the American League will keep you employed, and his peripherals haven't changed all that much versus last year. In fact, the only real difference is that Jake is giving up a greater amount of home runs; other than that, his ratios haven't changed that much.

Finally, the Devil Rays have DFAd former Indian Josh Phelps. I was wrong about Ryan Ludwick, but Phelps has been relatively healthy, and even though he's essentially a platoon DH, he's hit .286/.341/.464 against left-handed pitching so far this year, so someone is going to claim him. The interesting side of this transaction was that the Devil Rays had DFA Phelps to make room for Reggie Taylor, he of the lifetime .233/.275/.386 line. Meanwhile Jonny Gomes continues to obliberate AAA pitching.

The Indians did make a roster move recently, though it's not a huge one. They claimed RHP Jose Diaz off waivers from Tampa. Diaz is 25 years old, and had been pitching for the AA Montgomery Biscuits (what a great team name). Judging by his numbers, he has great stuff, but little idea where his pitches are going. It looks like the Indians may see some flaw in his mechanics, and with a couple roster spots to play with, took a chance on a live arm.

Breaking news: Milwaukee just flipped 2B Junior Spivey to the Nationals for RHP Tomo Ohka. The Brewers don't need Spivey anymore, with Bill Hall playing well and Rickie Weeks knocking on the door, so Brewers GM Doug Melvin (who I think is one of the more underrated GMs in the game) got a fifth starter in Ohka for Spivey. Spivey will fill in at second base until Jose Vidro is off the Disabled List, and after that would probably become some sort of super-sub. I don't believe Spivey can play shortstop, because that's where the Nats really need an upgrade thanks to Cristian Guzman's abysmal 2005 campaign

Update: Alex Cora's in the lineup for the fourth straight game?! What the &^%^#$&^!

Just Another Extra-Inning Game

2005-06-08T01:57:00.000-04:00

The AL Central went 5-0 against the NL West tonight, which is amazing considering that the games were played in NL parks.

Tonight's game was giftwrapped by Khalil Greene; no doubt about it. But you have to at least mention Cliff Lee's start, probably the best of his young career. He struck out 9 and walked two in his seven innings of work. The bullpen was excellent, and Wickman saved the game in his usual fashion. And, like usual, the Indians couldn't put down a bunt when they needed one. This time, the culprit was Coco Crisp, who amazingly enough, got a bunt single earlier in the game. In situations where the bunt is absolutely called for, a guy like Coco has to put the ball on the ground.

Earlier in the day, the MLB Draft was held. For those who are unfamiliar with the process, the baseball draft is the complete opposite of the NFL's hype-fest. Actually, this year the rules were changed so that teams have about 15-20 seconds to make their picks (obviously to increase fan interest). And the clubs make their picks via a conference line. The Indians had two extra picks in the first three rounds thanks to Omar Vizquel, and they mostly picked bats in the early going. Here's a quick overview of the picks, but if you want more details, head over to Cleveland Indians Report.

OF Trevor Crowe: He's a polished switch-hitter with good on-base skills. Isn't that big, so maybe there's a chance he could move to the infield. Looks like a leadoff hitter to me, although it should be interesting to see how his plate discipline holds up in professional baseball. Like Michael Aubrey two years ago, Crowe was probably college baseball's best hitter when drafted. His ceiling is fairly low, but he should move quickly through the system.

OF John Drennen: A high school player with a good offensive game. He's probably going to be a left-fielder as a pro, so you're looking for power as he develops. A plus is his plate discipline, which combined with his power potential could make for an easier adjustment to professional baseball.

1B/LHP Stephen Head: The Indians drafted the Mississipi product as a first baseman, and unlike other players who get stuck at first base, Head is a good defender. His profile looks to me like Ben Broussard with a bit more power.

1B Nick Weglarz: This guy is huge; at 17 years old he's listed at 6'3" 205; who knows how big he'll eventually get? Weglarz probably has the most "projectability" out of the first group of draftees, but at the same time his development into a major-league hitter might take some time. He's a cold-weather kid (actually he's from Canada), so that also may contribute to a slow move up the organizational ladder.

RHP Jensen Lewis: Jeremy Sowers' teammate a year ago, Jensen is a right-handed finesse pitcher. He tops out in the low 90s, but has a good feel for his pitches, and can add or subtract from his pitches as needed. A low-ceiling pick, Lewis is probably a 4-5 starter at best in the majors, but the chances of flameout is pretty low.

Among the first five picks, I'd say Weglarz has the highest ceiling and Crowe is the closest to the majors. This draft was a pretty "safe" one for Scouting Director John Mirabelli; there isn't the impact talent there was from the 2003 haul, although I like the overall picks compared to last year's draft. But, we'll have to wait 3-4 years to really know how this draft went.

The Silver Lining

2005-06-06T01:08:00.000-04:00

During a weekend where the Indians dropped two of three to White Sox, a weekend where FOX gave us the wit and wisdom of Darrin Jackson during Saturday's national telecast, and a weekend where Eddie Murray was fired, there are some good things going on with this team. CC Sabathia pitched well again, and although he doesn't have the requisite win percentage to give him the well-worn monicker of "ace," he's been the team's best and most consistent pitcher. But of course, he's a slob and he wears his hat sideways....

Grady Sizemore, who avoids walks like the plague, had a very good series, raising his average from .257 to .274. But the center fielder has taken only 10 walks thus far, not exactly what you're looking for in your leadoff hitter. His high strikeout-to-walk percentage is a red flag, especially given his propensity to swing at a lot of pitches. But otherwise, Sizemore has been as advertised; he's a good defender in center, has pretty good speed, and shows the potential to hit for power.

Speaking of hitting for power, Coco Crisp has boosted his OPS to a respectable .828, higher (for the moment) than Manny Ramirez. He's shown a surprising ability to hit home runs, something you wouldn't believe seeing him for the first time. His cutoff of Paul Konerko's single in the eighth inning was a fantastic play. He's growing on me.

Although Alex Cora was brought in to provide some insurance for Jhonny Peralta, it doesn't really appear that he's needed. Peralta, who has been pretty decent in the field, ranks highly in most offensive categories among AL shortstops. Given that he's up against guys like Miguel Tejada, Carlos Guillen, and Michael Young, that's pretty impressive. Hopefully the Wayne Kirby treatment goes away quickly.

Aaron Boone showed a pulse today. He was hitting singles the other way on Saturday and Sunday, a first step towards getting some semblance of an idea at the plate. Now Casey Blake looks worse, although this type of competition isn't one you want to see. Whoever had either on his or her HACKING MASS club has to be downright giddy right about now.

Offense hasn't exactly been a problem for Buffalo, who lost on Sunday despite scoring twelve (12) runs. Jake Gautreau had five hits, including two doubles. Brandon Phillips has gotten his average up to .261 after a dreadful start, and Ernie Young is now hitting .328. Fernando Cabrera, the one Bison pitcher not to give up a run, lowered his ERA to 0.84; he's ready.

In the upcoming series against the Padres, the Indians get to face the best pitcher you've never heard of: Jake Peavy. He's allowed only 57 hits in his 76 innings, and may be one of the early frontrunners in the NL Cy Young race. The only thing that's really missing from his resume is his win total; as Randy Johnson found out last year, voters like a large number of wins, no matter what your ERA says.

Eddie Murray Fired

2005-06-05T11:00:00.000-04:00

Whenever someone like a hitting coach or pitching coach is fired, it's really difficult to point to the exact cause of their removal. A hitting coach is probably better termed as an "approach coach;" most players have their own batting stances, but a hitting coach, in my mind, should be a problem-solver, a mentor, and a good observor. How good at these things were Eddie Murray? Having no access to the inner workings of the team, I have no clue.

"But!" you might say, "He was fired because the team wasn't hitting!" While that may be partly true, you have to separate cause from effect. Eddie Murray cannot go up to the plate and swing the bat. He cannot make Ronnie Belliard take breaking balls in the dirt. He cannot only tell Ronnie not to do so; it's ultimately up to the player to execute. But when players fail to execute, the hammer falls on the hitting coach, and despite past success, Murray was fired yesterday. The firing didn't seem like a snap judgment; the offense was pretty decent by this season's standards. So the issue becomes less about the team's performance and more about Murray's approach and communication with the players. I just can't believe that he was let go because the team wasn't hitting.

Anything I say is going to be speculation; I have no sources (real or imaginary) within the team, and since I have never been on or worked with a major-league club, I don't know exactly how a typical hitting coach operates. All I can do is to guess the reason. And my guess is that Murray was let go because of a lack of communication between he and the players. Murray, by all accounts, is not the type of hitting coach to initiate conversations with players regarding their swing. His personality, which perhaps is the reason he's in the Hall of Fame, could have been the reason why he's out of a job today. This isn't a knock Eddie's ability to understand how to hit, but how he communicates his knowledge is just as important in today's professional sports as the knowledge itself. It's unfortunate, but true.

Blaming the hitting coach for the team's stuggles at the plate is a conveinient and safe course of action. But at some point, you have to point at least some of the blame at the players or the person who procured them. The best hitting coach in the world could not make the Buffalo Bisons lead the American League in hitting. If you have inferior offensive talent, then there's only so much you can do as a coach. When the top two hitters in the order are getting on base less than thirty percent of the time, you won't be scoring many runs. When you have a hitter whose OPS is less than Ryan Ludwick's slugging percentage, then your offense will struggle.

On a side note, I propose that if the Indians insist on having a hitter who hits like a pitching in the lineup, then at the very least, that hitter should "help his own cause" like a pitcher. If someone's on base and there are less than two outs, he bunts. After the fifth inning or so, he should be lifted for a pinch hitter (double switch optional).

Which is why I'm proposing a trade that would help this club immensely. It's with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies Get:

RHP Bob Howry
IF Jose Hernandez

The Indians Get:

2B/3B Placido Polanco

All of the players involved in this proposed trade are free agents at the end of the year. Polanco makes more than Howry and Hernandez combined, but not too much. The Phillies are looking for a "proven" setup man, and Howry fits that bill. The Indians need a competent third baseman and a top-of-the-order hitter, and Polanco fits that bill. If the Indians are out of the race by July, they could easily flip Polanco to another team for a prospect. David Riske would replace Howry in the setup role, and Fernando Cabrera, who's been dominating AAA hitters, could be brought up to fill Riske's previous role. Aaron Boone would get moved to the bench, or he could agree to accept an assignment to Buffalo, in which case Mike Kinkade would be brought up to fill Jose Hernandez's role.

Essentially, both teams would get what they want without trading a prospect to do so. Will it happen? Probably not, because oftentimes the trades that seem to make the most sense don't materialize because of other unknown circumstances.

Davis Up, Tallet Down

2005-06-04T12:32:00.000-04:00

Recalled RHP Jason Davis from Buffalo (AAA)
Optioned LHP Brian Tallet to Buffalo (AAA)

What does a guy have to do to get a shot around here? Granted, Brian hadn't pitched in ten days, but his numbers for the Bisons were good enough to warrant at least a start. I had thought that Tallet would make his start today, then get shipped back down to Buffalo in favor of Davis, who would take over as the long man, at least until Kevin Millwood came off the Disabled List. I guess not.

I'd like to mention site a friend from the ESPN days has started: it's called the Indians Clubhouse, and it's a forum without the...problems..that the ESPN forums have.

Also check out Coco Crisp and Ben Broussard singing on "Oh Say Can You Sing?" Former Indians Omar Vizquel and Sean Casey also appear on the CD, and a portion of the proceeds goes to charity.

Finally, I'd like to share an e-mail I received from Rob:

Some schedule analysis:
I divided the teams that we, the Twins and the WSox play into 4 levels of competitiveness:

(1) Tough [Bos, Balt, LAA, LAD]
(2) Good [Tor, NYY, TX, AZ, SD]
(3) Fair [Det, Oak, Mil, Chi C, SF]
(4) Poor [KC, TB, Sea, Cin, Col]

Didn't rate White Sox, Twins, Indians as we play each other equal amounts.[Note that Indians are 3-3 vs Twins and 2-4 vs WS so far. Twins are 0-5 vs WS which is a big contributor to the WS current lead]. You may disagree with some of these placements but you get the idea.

Then I evaluated the difficulty of the schedule to-date (through 5/11) and going forward (leaving out games among the 3 above). Here are the results [# games vs (1), # games vs (2), ...]:

to-date: CWS [0, 3, 8, 11] Minn [6, 0, 5, 11] Tribe [5, 3, 6, 8]
Clearly the CWS have had the easiest schedule; although this isn't a big enough difference to totally account for the current standings, but maybe things aren't quite as bad as they appear!!

going forward:
rest of May - CWS [10, 6, 3, 0] Minn [0, 9, 3, 0] Tribe [3, 3, 3, 3]
June - CWS [4, 6, 6, 6] Minn [3, 9, 9, 3] Tribe [7, 6, 3, 6]
July - CWS [7, 0, 9, 6] Minn [13, 3, 4, 7] Tribe [3, 4, 6, 11]
August - CWS [4, 12, 0, 6] Minn [3, 3, 7, 10] Tribe [3, 9, 6, 10]
Sept/Oct - CWS [3, 0, 8, 6 ] Minn [0, 3, 9, 3] Tribe [0,0, 6, 10]

TOTAL -CWS [28, 24, 26, 24] Minn [19, 27, 32, 23] Tribe [16, 22, 24, 40]

It looks like the CWS have the toughest remaining schedule, then Minn and then the Tribe!
Some of this is driven by who the interleague opponents are (and how I rated them!). The CWS play the Cubs (6 times), COL, SD, AZ, LAD (3 times each). Twins play Mil (6 times), SF, SD, AZ, LAD (3 each). Tribe plays Cin (6 times), SF, SD, AZ, COL (3 each). So the Tribe gets those 6 games against CIN (which I rated the lowest) and 0 games against LAD (rated highest). If we can't gain some serious ground with this schedule advantage, then we're not as good as everybody hoped we would be! Of course, we have to win a fair share of our games with CWS and Twins.
First test of this starts now as the CWS have a tough remainder of May. Then June is a test for the Tribe. If we are in this thing at the end of June, then we have a real shot. July is Minnesota's test. Etc.

Thanks for all the work, Rob (note he sent the e-mail on May 11th, so there were some changes between then and now). Anyway,this shows that if the Indians can hang around through the end of June, the road gets easier. But right now, the remainder of this 12-game road is critical, since the Indians are the ones who have the catching up to do. Losing to El Duque last night really hurt, because the other two pitchers faced in the series are Chicago's best: Jon Garland and Mark Buerhle.

Ryan Ludwick Clears Waivers

2005-06-03T16:39:00.000-04:00

Outrighted OF Ryan Ludwick to Buffalo (AAA)

I have to admit I was a bit shocked to hear no one put in a claim for Ludwick. A right-handed outfielder with power, who could have fit on at least five teams' bench, unclaimed? But I'm not complaining a bit; Ludwick will get to play every day in Buffalo, although it should be interesting to see who loses PT as a result. By the way, Ludwick couldn't have refused the assignment, as this is his first outrighting.

A bit of a postcript to my comments about the offense. With the return of Coco Crisp and the return of Victor Martinez's bat, there's a good chance that the Indians won't be the worst offensive team in the AL by the end of the season (heck, they have higher OPSs than four other AL clubs right now). But I point to the Casey Blake contract and his subsequent move to the outfield as a lack of perspective on Shapiro's part. Blake is nice story, and he's a pretty solid player given the right role. But in right field? Even if Blake returns to his career averages, that still makes him a below-average right fielder. I certainly can't blame him for Aaron Boone's nosedive, though Boone's signing was what precipitated Blake moving to the outfield in the first place.

Building a Mansion with Plywood

2005-06-03T02:14:00.000-04:00

That's what trying to construct a lineup is like these days for manager Eric Wedge.

Now generally you have one of two opinions on the cause of the Indians' offensive malaise:

(a) It's Wedge's fault because he's the one who's putting the lineup together
(b) The players are the cause, because they aren't hitting.

I'm of the opinion that managers generally have less to do with the outcome of games than generally thought. Because baseball is at its heart a one-on-one matchup, there is little a coach or manager can do except to fix a player's mechanics, whether they are swinging or throwing. Finding a lineup, especially with the addition of several new players, is usually a gradual process, and by the end of the first month, you pretty much know where everyone's going to hit. But what happens if virtually everyone in the lineup can't hit? Well, you do what Wedge has been doing for the first two months and tinker. In many respects the lineup difficulties parallel what happened with the bullpen last year; there's only so much you can do when pretty much everyone sucks. The order matters less when you don't have the players to work with.

This year's lineup has very few obvious fits. Travis Hafner has the team's highest OBP, but you obviously don't want him leading off. Grady Sizemore, who is the team's stolen base leader, hasn't been drawing walks. And Coco Crisp has been injured. In the second hole, Casey Blake is one of the most patient hitters on the team, a good attribute for your second hitter to have, but Blake hasn't been, you know, getting hits. Add in regressions from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, the complete absence of Juan Gonzalez, and the absolute suck of Aaron Boone, and you have a group of offensive players that wouldn't score no matter how you placed them.

Now of course one argument for the importance of lineup construction states that because players are creatures of habit, sticking with one lineup for an appreciable amount of time, would result in the offense scoring more runs. I really don't buy that argument; although some players get pitched differently based on who the next hitter is, you first have to have someone worth pitching around. Other than Travis Hafner at times, who would you tread carefully against on this team? Jody Gerut has the team's highest OPS (.894), and that's based on 43 at-bats. There are exactly two players slugging above .500. There are two players with an OBP above .350. Grady Sizemore is miscast right now as the team's leadoff hitter, but who else is there? At some point you have to leave the abstract realm of form and get into the dirty world of function; it is there you will see that order is not the reason for the lack of runs; it's the lack of production by the component parts.

It's not all bad news for the team, though; they have started to hit better, today's performance notwithstanding (They posted a .749 OPS in May, good for 7th in the league). Exorcising Casey Blake and eventually (please?) Aaron Boone from the everyday lineup should have some positive effect on the overall offense. Juan Gonzalez was supposed to have helped, but that isn't happening. I still think Shapiro has to go out and get some help, because I don't see much in the way of internal options. He grossly miscalculated the dropoff on the offensive side, and now that the two month barrier has been passed, his task to is to strengthen the, because it's pretty difficult winning games when the offense scores four runs a game.

A Blast and a Bloop

2005-06-02T13:58:00.000-04:00

Giving Radke four inches on the outside corner should be criminal. Given Radke's surgical control, he didn't really have to throw a real strike all game, especially to left-handers. That Jody Gerut was able to single on an "outside" strike was a testament to how he's swinging. The strike was the same for both pitchers, but Cliff Lee didn't have the control to take advantage of it. Lee will lapse into stretches where he can't throw his off-speed pitches for strikes, and against a fastball-hitting lineup, that's a recipe for disaster. Of course, Ben Broussard's physical and Lee's mental error in the fourth inning probably cost the team four runs. Those four runs were more than enough for Radke and the Twins bullpen. Torii Hunter's other two RBI came on a bloop "double;" the ball dropped between Jhonny Peralta and Jody Gerut in shallow left field. I thought Gerut should have made the catch, but Peralta was there to make the play.

Placed OF Juan Gonzalez on the 15-day Disabled List (hamstring)
Reinstated OF Coco Crisp from the 15-day Disabled List

Crisp is back after only 15 days, and is starting in center field today. According to Tom Hamilton, Coco is wearing a brace on his right hand, but is otherwise ready to go. That's a huge boost to the lineup, because it makes Blake a backup.

And just I'm writing this, Coco Crisp just took Santana deep. Welcome back, Coco!

.500

2005-06-01T10:49:00.000-04:00

Well, sticking to last year's script, the Indians have made it back to .500 after a bad start. This time, though, the pitching is what helped them there. Although I'm seeing some good things from the offense; Victor Martinez is starting to hit the ball with some authority, and Travis Hafner seems locked in again. Carlos Silva was leaving the ball up all night, and he really should have been charged with more runs than he allowed. But that's what happens when you ground into four double plays. CC Sabathia, who never seems in control of his stuff to start a game, settled down after a couple of rough early innings to get the win.

And then there's Juan Gonzalez, who injured his hamstring running to first base on his first at-bat of the season. No, you can't make this stuff up. I would guess someone like Ernie Young comes up for a week or so until Coco Crisp comes back. More importantly, this means a steady dose of Casey Blake and Aaron Boone in the lineup. I'm wishing for a trade (Rick mentioned Jonny Gomes, who looks to be caught up in a numbers game in Tampa), and I've already shown support for bring Placido Polanco in. With Ryan Ludwick on the block, it's time to get creative. Although Ludwick wouldn't be enough to get any of those two players in a one-for-one deal, the Indians have enough prospects where they could get a deal done.

As for short-term fixes, a couple of Buffalo veterens might be sufficient. Mike Kinkade, who can play third, first, and the outfield, is hitting .295/.382/.511 for Buffalo with pretty good plate discipline (25 K to 16 BB). Ernie Young is having a great first half, hitting .316/.417/.612 with 13 home runs.

Tonight's game (Lee vs. Radke) might mean the difference between a series win or loss, for the Indians have Scott Elarton going up against Johan Santana on Thursday.

Buddy Bell, Juan Gonzalez, and Ryan Ludwick

2005-05-31T15:55:00.000-04:00

When I heard that the Royals were interviewing bench coach Buddy Bell, I didn't give it much thought. "After all," I thought, why would the Royals hire a guy who was a complete bust during both of his coaching stints?"

It appears that I gave Royals management a bit too much credit; they have hired Bell as their new full-time manager, giving him a contract through 2007. Now don't get me wrong, Bell is probably a great guy to have around a team. But you can't tell me that he was the best option available. Grady Little, Bobby Valentine, or Davey Johnson would have been much better choices in my opinion. Ken Rosenthal summed things up nicely in regards to Bell:

Buddy Bell is a curious choice to manage the Royals.

Curious, because Bell was fired by the Tigers after growing frustrated in a low-payroll situation and engaging in a personality conflict with general manager Randy Smith.

Curious, because Bell reacted in similar fashion when his next team, the Rockies, went backwards, leading to a breakdown in communication with G.M. Dan O'Dowd and another dismissal.

In the article, Mark Shapiro said some nice things about Bell, but really, was he going to rip on him? For the role Bell played with the Indians, I didn't have problem with him. Would I want him as the manager of the team? Hell no. I'd rather go with an organizational guy like Wedge or someone with a good record somewhere else.

In other, more predictable, news:

Reinstated OF Juan Gonzalez from the 15-day Disabled List
Designated OF Ryan Ludwick for Assignment

I understand why this move was made; however, I don't like it. Ludwick, who probably isn't a starting outfielder at this point, is a great player to have on a roster to play against left-handers or pinch-hit late in the game. Ryan wasn't going to get a real opportunity anymore with the Indians, not with the current outfield situation, but that didn't make him a bad guy to have on your bench. Instead, the Indians will probably make Casey Blake the fourth outfielder, and continue to trot out Aaron Boone everyday. Yes, Boone may be gone when Coco Crisp comes back, but the timing on the two moves should have been reversed; Boone should have gone first, and then Ludwick.

Will the Indians get anything for Ludwick? Probably yes, given what Ludwick can do. USS Mariner and Lone Star Ball both want their respective teams to claim Ludwick on waivers, and there's a bunch of other clubs who could use Ludwick.

Transactions

2005-05-30T15:34:00.000-04:00

I've gotten a bit behind in the organization's transactions, so here's two weeks' worth:

Placed RHP Kevin Millwood on the Disabled List (groin)

You never know with injuries like groin or hamstring pulls, but Millwood shouldn't be out for an appreciable amount of time. Millwood has been impressive so far this season, and it should go without saying that he's a key piece to any possible playoff push.

Recalled LHP Brian Tallet from Buffalo
Promoted LHP Billy Traber to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)

Tallet hasn't pitched since his recall (although he has been seen throwing in the bullpen), but he should get a start sometime in the Chicago series. Jason Davis could take his spot, but Tallet's numbers have been pretty good in Buffalo; he allowed only 36 hits in his 46.1 innings while with the Bisons. In 2003, Tallet and fellow left-hander Billy Traber went under the knife for Tommy John surgery; Tallet looks to be ahead of Traber, but Billy is now at Buffalo, taking Tallet's spot in the rotation.

Promoted LHP Victor Kleine to Buffalo (AAA) from Extended Spring

Kleine now seems to be a full-time reliever. He regressed in 2004, posting a 4.95 ERA in Akron. He's one of only six drafted in 2000 still with the team, and one of only three who have reached AAA (the other being Brian Tallet and Joe Inglett).

Reinstated RHP JD Martin from the Disabled List (AA)

Martin's back from an "minor" elbow injury. JD, before landing on the DL, was in the midst of a breakout year, striking out 40 and walking 4 in 29 innings. If I had to redo my prospect rankings today, he'd be behind only Adam Miller and Fernando Cabrera as far as pitching prospects are concerned. Speaking of Miller, he's been throwing in Extended Spring, and he should be pitching with the Scrappers when short-season ball starts. After that, I'd assume he'd go to Kinston or Akron. That's good news.

Promoted RHP Tom Mastny to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

Mastny has started only one game this season, so the Indians are probably trying to move him up the organization via the bullpen.

Placed Michael Aubrey on the Disabled List (AA - back)

Aubrey was posting decent numbers (.288/.345/.471) before the injury. It doesn't appear serious, but when little injuries start piling up like this, it may be a sign a lack of durability. Aubrey missed the latter part of 2004 with a hamstring injury, and part of 2003 with a quad pull.

Promoted OF Brian Barton to Lake County (A-) from Extended Spring

Barton was an undrafted free agent from Miami (FL), and it appears that the Sally League is a bit too easy for him; he's hitting .400/471/.667 in 60 at-bats.

Released LHP Derrick Van Dusen from Akron (AA)

And thus, the last link from the Brian Giles trade has left the organization. If you don't recalled the entire chain, here's a refresher:

1. OF Brian Giles traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for LHP Ricardo Rincon
2. LHP Ricardo Rincon traded to the Oakland Athletics for IF Marshall McDougall
3. IF Marshall McDougall traded to the Texas Rangers for LHP Derrick Van Dusen

Signed SS Jose Chavez and RHP Carlton Smith to minor-league contracts

Both are "draft and follow" signings, meaning that both were drafted in 2004 by the Indians, went to a junior college, and signed before the 2005 draft. Smith looks to be the bigger signing; he's the younger brother of Corey Smith. Chavez looks like a good-field, no-hit shortstop to me.

And finally...now that I've gotten my hands on a 2005 media guide, I've added years of service, 2005 salaries, and other useful information to my Options/Salary page. It's a geocities page, so just click on the ">>" tab to get rid of the advertisement. The page now includes everyone currently on the 40-man roster.

Fortes fortuna adiuvat

2005-05-29T17:10:00.000-04:00

Watching this weekend's series, beyond getting a first-hand of how bad the Oakland Athletics are, I saw the potential for the team, with the addition of a big bat, to have a shot of at least the wild card. Now I have no idea if the White Sox will continue to win at their current pace (though as I speak the Rangers are doing a number on Jon Garland), but a 10-game lead is a huge obstacle to overcome no matter how early in the season it is.

Where would this "big bat" come from? Some think it will be Juan Gonzalez. Juan is probably going to start in right field in Minnesota, so he's the first contestant, although all indications show that Ryan Ludwick, not Aaron Boone would be the one squeezed out. Ludwick, who will probably get snapped up on waivers, is a guy I'd much rather have in the lineup than Boone at this point. Shapiro has shown an ability to admit his mistakes (see Jeriome Robertson, Scott Stewart, and Jose Jimenez), and if there was an example of a sunk cost, Aaron Boone is it. Convincing Boone to go to Buffalo not only betters the offense by removing a everyday black hole, but it keeps Ludwick around until Coco Crisp returns. Moving Casey Blake back to third isn't something I'm really enthused about, but I think the circumstances really dictate it.

Then there's the trade route. At the time of this writing, there probably isn't much the Indians could get besides an outright salary dump (Preston Wilson?), but there are a couple intriguing possibilities:

1. Placido Polanco. The Phillies have no real use for him; in fact, they didn't expect him to be back this season. Philadelphia offered him arbitration in the offseason, figuring they'd get a compensatory draft pick when he signed with another team. Imagine their surprise when Polanco accepted arbitration. Given what's happened to Boone, getting someone who can play third base well and hit well enough for a third baseman would be a nice fit for the team. The Phillies don't really need him, and it wouldn't take all that much to get him.

2. Joe Randa. You all probably know about what Randa does to Indian pitching. With the Reds already 13 games out from the division-leading Cardinals, they may start dealing some of their upcoming free agents. Randa isn't a spectacular offensive talent, but he's a solid fit down in the order. He's also a pretty good defender at the hot corner, and he obviously knows the pitching in the AL Central. The Reds are looking for pitching, and a mid-level prospect should be enough to get him.

You could also take advantage of your outfielder crunch by dealing someone. While Juan Gonzalez is only a short-term fix, Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, Ryan Ludwick, Caey Blake, and Grady Sizemore are all inexpensive and are under the Indians' control for the next 3-4 years. Ludwick is a guy I would think several teams might be after, and if one of them has a third baseman they'd like to deal, it might turn into a win-win trade. Neither the Phillies or Reds really need a right-handed outfielder, though. Either way, the Indians should be able to get something for Ludwick, if in fact he's the one tossed to the curb.

You could say that Victor Martinez v. 2004 would be that addition if he can climb out of his season-long slump from the left side of the plate. He pulled the ball with authority for the first time in quite a while, hitting a double and a home run off of Oakland starter Seth Etherton. That's a great sign, and probably even more significant than the Indians' 6-2 win. In order for the Indians to have any shot at the playoffs, Victor has to start hitting from the left side of the plate. Given that the Indians have a very important six game stretch on the road against the Twins and White Sox, ending his skid now becomes that much more important.

But I think that any of these moves is predicated on Aaron Boone's absence from the lineup. If you can't send him down, at the very least sit him on the bench and throw Casey Blake or Jose Hernandez out there at third. Time is of essence, and regardless of what move Mark Shapiro makes, it'll be a tough one. Hopefully he decides to bite the bullet and either demote or release Aaron Boone.

Enough

2005-05-27T16:27:00.000-04:00

Ok, perhaps it is time to quit pretending that Aaron Boone will hit again. Last night, Boone was the difference between winning a four-game series and merely treading water.

Of course, the entire series was fantastic. Three straight extra-inning games, all four games decided in the teams' last at-bat, and fantastic pitching performances made the series seem more like an October matchup rather than a weekday series in May. No, it didn't get top-billing on SportsCenter (remind me why I even bother to watch that show?), but for pure entertainment purposes, you couldn't beat it. CC Sabathia recovered from a three-run fourth to go 8.2 innings to allow the team to not only stay in the ballgame, but have a chance to win it.

[Start Tangent]

Permit me to engage in a tangent. This isn't really targeted at ESPN per se, but they as the largest and most influencial sports network is most reponsible for the complete dumbing-down of sports shows. Instead of showing, you know, highlights, SportsCenter would rather bombard its viewers with "breakdowns" of the highlights, which are essentially an analyst telling the viewing what they would have seen if the actual highlight was shown. "Harold Reynolds shows you how to turn a double play! Joh Kruk tells you who's good!" I guess it's one thing if the talking heads have a track record of intelligent comments and ideas, but quite another if the only reason for being on the show is their affable personality or everyman-type banter. Which is why I don't watch Baseball Tonight if Mssrs. Kruk and Reynolds are on. Just because someone had success on the field doesn't mean that they're good at talking about the game away from the diamond. Think of this Player-Analyst complex as a parallel to the Player-Manager priniciple; some of the best managers in history had little to no major-league experience. The cult of personality that seems to permeate ESPN reaches its apex with characters like Kruk and Reynolds spouting platitudes and cliches, but unforrtunately does not stop there; try watching their college football studio shows. For that matter, try watching Stephen A. Smith's (or as Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert likes to call him, John A. Doe) rants.

[End Tangent]

When the Indians activate Juan Gonzalez (which could be prior to the start of their upcoming road trip), they should send Aaron Boone down. Or bench him. Casey Blake is currently posting a .708 OPS, which is pretty bad for a right fielder, but compared to Boone's .486 OPS, it looks positively Ruthian. This team needs offense, and for right now, I'll take a drop-off in defense at third in order to get it. Jody Gerut and Grady Sizemore are hitting well in left and center, and adding Juan Gonzalez would help greatly to stabilize the lineup, probably moving Victor Martinez down in the order.

CF Sizemore
3B Blake
DH Hafner
RF Gonzalez
1B Broussard
C Martinez
LF Gerut
2B Belliard
SS Peralta

His opposite-field hit against Joe Nathan notwithstanding, Martinez has simply been awful against right-handed pitching thus far. I think he'll figure out his swing eventually, but the team simply can't afford for him to be hitting cleanup while he does it. The good news for Martinez is that he gets to face Barry Zito tonight.

A Night at the Ballpark

2005-05-26T14:03:00.000-04:00

I was able to get to the Jake for the first this year, and I picked a great night to go. Thanks to the Pepsi can promotion, I got a pretty good bleacher seat for $6. Parking was $3, so if you add in the gas spent getting to the ballpark, the total cost was a little over $12. Not bad at all.

The ballgame itself was a typical Indians game; good pitching, little to no hitting. The Twins gave the Indians a run in the 7th when left fielder Lew Ford flat-out dropped a fly ball. Aaron Boone, who seems to be hitting the ball better, drove Gerut home later in the inning with a 400-foot sacrifice to center. And that was it until the 9th inning, when the Twins brought in closer Joe Nathan with a one-run lead. Several fans were leaving the ballpark at that point, and for good reason; he hadn't given up a run to the Indians in his previous three appearances. Unfortunately, the fans who left after the top of the ninth were kicking themselves when they got into their cars and turned on the radio; Ben Broussard hit the first pitch he saw into the seats. Tie game.

The Indians' bullpen had been worked hard in the past couple days, and when Kevin Millwood left the game in the fifth with a strained groin (although I feared the worst - an arm injury - when he hunched over on the mound), a tired pen had to pitch 4.1 innings. And for the most part, the relievers did their jobs. Betancourt, who was brought in without throwing in the bullpen, got the Indians to the 7th inning. Matt Miller was very good yet again, but Arthur Rhodes, pitching for the third straight day, was hit hard. Torii Hunter (who essentially was the Twins offense) doubled, and Jacque Jones singled him in. Just like that, the Twins had a 2-1 lead, and three outs from winning the game.

In the 10th, the Indians did what they couldn't do in the 9th; Victor Martinez drew a walk, Grady Sizemore bunted him to second, and Travis Hafner blooped a single to left for the win.

With Millwood likely heading to the Disabled List, Brian Tallet should be the first to be called up, although the team may bring up a reliever to help in the bullpen. Fernando Cabrera could fill that role until Millwood's spot in the rotation comes up. Or Kaz Tadano could be called up to provide some length.

20-23

2005-05-24T18:17:00.000-04:00

Humpty Wickman delivered the ball,
Humpty Wickman had a great fall.
But all the Twins' runners,
And all the Twins' hitters,
Couldn't score with men on base yet again

Seriously, I have no idea how Bob Wickman saves games, but I guess some mysteries are better left unaswered.

Exhibit A in the volatility of bullpens are the 2004 and 2005 versions for the Indians. Arthur Rhodes and Scott Sauerbeck really consolidated the pen, and adding Matt Miller gives Eric Wedge a veritable Swiss Army knife to use as he sees fit. Do you need a sidearming left-hander to confound Justin Morneau? Bring in Scott Sauerbeck. How about a sidearming right-hander to get guys like Torii Hunter and Lew Ford? Call in Matt Miller. What about a power right-hander? You have David Riske and Bob Howry. The total price tag for the bullpen? If you count what the Pirates are paying for Rhodes, it comes to about $8M.

I don't think the Twins got the memo about Scott Elarton:

Elarton vs. Minnesota: 3.35
Elarton vs. Everyone Else: 5.38

Still, his performance last night may have bought him another 4-5 starts, which is bad news for Brian Tallet.

A piece of great news: Coco Crisp is only out 2-3 weeks instead of 3 months. Which makes the outfield situation even more interesting. You have Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, Ryan Ludwick, Casey Blake, and Juan Gonzalez, all of whom have limitations, and all of whom have some redeeming value. If I were Mark Shapiro, I'd try to get 2-3 weeks of production out of Juan, and then pawn him off on somebody else in exchange for a prospect or two. But as we saw before, these logjams have a habit of working themselves out. But as of now, the Indians have too many marginal talents, so there may some opportunities for a trade.

Danny Graves..

2005-05-23T18:02:00.000-04:00

...was Designated for Assignment by the Reds today. Given his 2005 salary ($6.25M), the Reds will most likely release him.

Apparently the last straw was an obscene gesture towards a fan, but I'd also think that giving up five runs to the Indians in Sunday's game had a bit to do with it.

Graves has been a completely different pitcher after starting 26 games for the Reds in 2003. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me to see him resurface as a competant middle reliever someone else. Of course, if his agent has an ounce of sense in him, he'd be in contact with Atlanta GM John Scheurholz by now.

19-23

2005-05-23T00:47:00.000-04:00

"You're never as good or bad as you think you are."

Over this weekend, I've taken a look into the statistics to see how the Indians stack up compared to the rest of the American League. Here's what I found:

Runs Scored - Last (168)
OPS - 10th (.708)
Home Runs - 6th (46)
Walks - 9th (122)
RC/27 - 10th (4.12)

Team ERA - 5th (3.83)
K/9 - 3rd (6.53)
Opp. OPS - 2nd (.685)
WHIP - 3rd (1.23)
HR Allowed - 8th (39)

Starter ERA - 9th (4.63)
Reliever ERA - 1st (2.41)

Obviously those numbers tell you the offense has been bad, although not as bad as the runs indicate. The team hits for power; the biggest problem is getting on base to begin with. Of course having Victor Martinez, Aaron Boone, and Casey Blake in the lineup everyday is going to hurt the team. The addition of Juan Gonzalez in a couple weeks might help a bit, but the current middle of the order has to pick things up offensively, because to this point, a stellar bullpen has kept the team with shouting distance of .500. The pitching has been pretty solid, especially in the past couple of weeks, so there's still some hope, although the White Sox have to fall precipitously in the next couple months for the Indians to have any hope of catching them.

With the Twins and White Sox on the schedule 10 times between now and June 15th, the Indians still can get back into the race. But the margin for error is really slim.

I like to stay away from these types of articles for the most part, but this particular one is a gem. It's by Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, who put before himself the task of determining what ails the bottom third of baseball. Of course the Indians were among the bottom ten in baseball, and his solution? Well, I'll let him tell you:

Shapiro really needs to look at his manager, Eric Wedge, who hasn't been able to inspire this team. A young team with so much unfulfilled talent needs a proven major league manager who can show it how to win - a cache Wedge lacks. Piniella would be perfect, if available. Jim Leyland is right now.

Fantastic! All the Indians need to win is a new manager. And Lou Piniella, currently of the 15-30 Devil Rays, is the perfect man for the job. I'm not a regular reader of the Daily News, but the article actually made Bud Shaw look sane. Talent is what wins ballgames, but when talent isn't present, it's always the manager's fault. And of course it's a lot easier for a columnist to simply blame the manager than actually come up with another way to fix a team's bad play. Some other gems:

On the Pirates:

The management team of Dave Littlefield and Lloyd McClendon is sound, but they'll never succeed with this penurious ownership - a travesty for a great baseball town.

On the Mariners:

GM Bill Bavasi hired a retread manager in laid-back Mike Hargrove last winter - a supposed "safe" pick - and this team has responded accordingly.

On the Reds:

You get what you pay for and Dave Miley, a nice guy who at $400,000 is the lowest salaried manager in baseball, clearly does not have this team's respect.

A Bad Defense is a Good Defense?

2005-05-22T00:42:00.000-04:00

Over the first couple months of the season, you've probably listened to the radio or TV and heard that the Indians have the worst or one of the worst defenses in the American League. The question is, what is the criteria for determining the "worst" defense? Turns that today's standard is simply the number of errors a team has committed, or sometimes people use team fielding percentage.

Personally, I think this measure is inadequate. This is like determining the best offense in the league by using only team batting average; you don't get the whole picture. In the case of defense, making the routine play is one facet of a good defense, but making plays that the average fielder won't make is a mostly untapped measure. One of my favorite team defensive measures is "Team Defensive Efficiency," which you can view at Baseball Prospectus. It is simply the percentage of balls in play that become outs; there's no scorekeeper bias at work here. It includes both "errors" and "hits." And lo and behold, the Indians are 4th in the American League in this measure at .7105 (the league average is .6974).

What does this mean? First of all, it means that errors don't tell the entire story; while of course you should make the routine play, making the "unroutine" plays should also be part of the defensive picture. Secondly, range does matter; to illustrate this point, imagine two shortstops. Shortstop A has a limited range, but makes the routine plays, while shortstop B has a very good range while making some errors.

Shortstop A:
2 Errors
3 "Unroutine" plays

Shortstop B:
10 Errors
15 "Unroutine" plays

Which is the more valuable shortstop? If you just used fielding percentages, it would be Shortstop A. But you aren't looking at the entire picture. Now this example is a very simple one, but extrapolate this to an entire team, and you'll see why judging a team's defense based solely on the number of errors it makes is a mistake. In 2004, the team finished second to last in the AL in defensive efficiency at .6855. The difference between this year and last is that the team is turning 5 more balls per hundred in play into outs than last season. That's a sizable difference, especially considering the margin of error the team is dealing with in order to win games.

By the way, am I the only one who enjoys listening to TV broacasts sans John Sanders? Nothing against Sanders, but I think Rick Manning and Mike Hegan make for a much more interesting viewing experience.

One more thing: CC Sabathia = Calvin Pickering + 95 mph fastball.

Miller In, Davis Down, Crisp Out

2005-05-20T16:54:00.000-04:00

Recalled RHP Matt Miller from Buffalo (AAA)

Matt, who was predictably dominating in his stint with the Bisons, should return to a matchup role. The only downside of this move is that the team doesn't really have a longman, but at this point, the bullpen is rested enough so that guys like Betancourt and Riske should be able to go multiple innings. And Scott Elarton doesn't pitch until the team gets back to Cleveland.

Optioned RHP Jason Davis to Buffalo (AAA)

JD will occupy the spot in the rotation left vacant by Jason Bere's retirement. For those of you keeping score at home, the current Buffalo rotation is Brian Tallet, Jeremy Guthrie, Francisco Cruceta, Steve Watkins, and now Jason Davis. Apparently the team isn't comfortable with making Davis a "future closer" just yet. The performance of Fernando Cabrera may have something to do with that, but first of all, Davis needs consistent work, which he wasn't getting in Cleveland.

I don't think it's official just yet, but Coco Crisp may be out three months because of a possible torn ligament in his right thumb. Crisp's absence means that Jody Gerut will probably be an everyday outfielder, at least until Juan Gonzalez is healthy again. Crisp had been one of the better offensive threats in the lineup, and his injury makes an already punchless lineup even worse.

The Crossroad of Careers

2005-05-20T00:53:00.000-04:00

The AAA level is an interesting one, in that young, promising prospects play with veterens on their last legs. Nowhere is that more evident than in Buffalo. Jason Bere, who has spent the past three seasons coming back from one arm injury after the other, recently retired after just three starts with the Bisons. The 33-year-old had little left; AAA hitters touched him up for 15 runs in just eight innings. You also have players like Ernie Young, who probably don't have many opportunities left, but play anyway. Young is 35 years old, and the last time he made more than 100 plate appearances in the majors was 1996.

Then there's the young prospects, who see Buffalo as the last obstacle in their paths to the majors. Fernando Cabrera, who got a cup of coffee with the Indians last year, seems to have put it all together in 2005; he's cut down on his walks (3 in 21 innings), and if this were 2004, he'd already be in Cleveland. Andrew Brown, one half of the duo received for Milton Bradley, has had trouble adjusting to the bullpen thus far. Like Cabrera, Brown has been a starter his entire professional career, and made the switch to the bullpen once he reached the high minors. Ryan Garko, who has done nothing but hit since drafted in 2003, is on the cusp of the majors, but he has no set position; he was a catcher in college, but most think that he'll be a first baseman or designated hitter in the majors. John Farrell, the Indians' farm director, has said that Garko is one of the most polished offensive players he's seen. "Pure bats," or good offensive players without a position, tend to have a difficult time getting opportunities in the majors, and Ryan is already 24, but if he continues to hit, the Indians will have to shoehorn him onto their roster somehow.

Then there's a group of players in their late 20s and early 30s who are running out of time to make a career for themselves. Jake Gautreau, the team's third baseman, has had injuries derail his career so far. He's hit well this season (.277/.323/.538), and given Aaron Boone's struggles, he may get a shot soon. But many times, the call never comes, be it because of a veteren at the major-league level, or other circumstances. John Rodriguez, who had until this year spent his entire professional career in the Yankee organization probably knows all too well what can happen when the major-league club has little room for a young player. Rodriguez had a career year in 2004, hitting .294/.382/.542, but the Yankees had no need for him due to guys like Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui in their outfield. Others in this boat include outfielder Andy Abad and Steve Watkins, a pitcher from the Padre organization.

There's also a group of disappointments who have returned to Buffalo to figure something out, whether that be a swing or a delivery. Brandon Phillips, who in 2003 was tabbed the Indians' next star player, hit an absymal .208/.242/.311 during his stint with the Indians, was sent down, and hasn't received an extended opportunity since. Now Jhonny Peralta, who played with Phillips in 2004, is playing for the Indians at short, and Ronnie Belliard, picked up in 2004, has become the team's second baseman. Phillips is no longer talked about as a future core player, but in Buffalo, there's still an opportunity for a young player to get a second chance. Jeremy Guthrie, a former first round pick, is looking for his first extended shot in the bigs. His problem is twofold; he's 26, and he hasn't had any appreciable success in two full seasons. Much of his problems stem from an inability to throw strikes, but even moreso, it seems like his confidence is lacking. His ability shows through at times; in tonight's start, Jeremy pitched 6.1 dominant innings, and more importantly, 61 of his 97 pitches were strikes. Perhaps some light in Guthrie's head has flickered on, but he has lot of ground to make up.

As a team, the Bisons currently have the International League's best record. But for the players, the wins are secondary achievement; all of them are looking either for just one more shot in the majors, or their first opportunity to prove that they belong in the big leagues.

Everything That Rises Must Converge

2005-05-18T11:35:00.000-04:00

Placed OF Coco Crisp on the 15-day Disabled List (thumb)

Coco injured his thumb trying to stretch a double into a triple in yesterday's game. The injury came in the midst of a very good offensive stretch for Coco; he had been hitting .340/.426/.566 in May.

Recalled OF Jody Gerut from Buffalo (AAA)

Apparently, his knee is fine. Jody comes to Cleveland on an offensive tear; during his Buffalo rehab/option he hit .438/.518/.729. It should be interesting to hear what Gerut has to say after the game.

2005-05-17T18:03:00.000-04:00

I like looking at things long-term, and I don't like making drastic moves based on small sample sizes. Given the play of the Indians to this point, it's really easy to go Shaw and rip the entire organization, calling for their removals. My previous attempt at humor aside, the long-term prospects of this team is still pretty good. Bob Wickman, Scott Elarton, Kevin Millwood, Jose Hernandez and Bob Howry are this year's crop of free agents, and given that Millwood is going to test the market no matter how much the Indians offer, there's no one there I'd recommend keeping for more than a team-friendly price.

But how are the Indians going to compete in the short-term? Well, there are a couple things I'd like to see happen, namely:

(1) Release Scott Elarton and call up Brian Tallet.

That Scott Elarton was one of the team's best starters in the second half last year said more about the Indians' rotation than it said about Scott. This season, he's allowed 41 hits in 31 innings. That's not good. Hitters are batting .325 so far this season, and half of his starts came against Kansas City and Seattle. Brian Tallet, a guy the Indians drafted in 2000 (the round after Corey Smith), is pitching very well in Buffalo, and he would slot easily into the rotation, as he pitched last night. I'm not rooting for an all-out implosion from Elarton to force the team's hand, but I just think they're wasting their time holding on to Elarton. It's not like last year where the team had no good options to turn to; Tallet is just one of three legitimate alternatives (the others being Steve Watkins and Jason Davis) they could plug into the rotation.

(2) Call up Kaz Tadano and send Jason Davis to Buffalo

Until the Indians decide one way or the other if JD is a reliever or starter, he should be throwing regularly. That isn't happening right now, and Davis is a guy who needs reps. I'd put him back into the rotation, but I'd be fine with having him set up Fernando Cabrera in the Bisons' bullpen. At least this way he can get some consistent work in. Tadano has essentially been Buffalo's long man, only getting one start, so he wouldn't have to make much of an adjustment.

(3) Send Aaron Boone to Buffalo and call up Jody Gerut

You don't like to send veterens down, but I really think this is in the best interest of the team. Boone is hitting an empty .147, if that's possible. His OPS is an absurdly-low .476. While his defense has been as advertised, it certainly can't make up for what he's done at the plate. Maybe a fresh start, without the pressure, can help Aaron figure out what's wrong his swing. Jody Gerut, once his knee has been declared sound, should probably be up in Cleveland. Will that mean he and Eddie Murray will get along? Probably not, but maybe he'll give the Indians some production in right field.

(4) Platoon Casey Blake and Jose Hernandez at third until Boone returns

Wait? Aren't both players right-handed? Yes, they are, but Blake doesn't have standard platoon splits, and Jose Hernandez does. Blake, in his career, is hitting .257/.323/426 against right-handed pitching, and Jose Hernandez is hitting .262/.324/.490 against left-handers. Ben Broussard is in the midst of one of his hot streaks, so I'd try to run him out there as much as possible.

(5) Spot Josh Bard against right-handers more often

Victor Martinez as a right-handed hitter is an All-Star. Martinez as a left-hander looks like Tim Laker. Given that you have Josh Bard, who's a halfway decent offensive catcher, it wouldn't hurt to spot him against a tough right-hander, regardless of normal playing schedules. Also, when Martinez is in the lineup against a right-hander, move him down in the order, and move Broussard to the third spot in the order, at least until Victor starts to hit from the left side again.

So there you have it. Nothing dramatic, other than the release of Elarton, but at this point I think you're stuck with what you've got.

The Byrd-Radke-Moyer Offense Scale

2005-05-17T02:06:00.000-04:00

To enhance your baseball-viewing pleasure, I'd like to introduce a new test that will allow you to safely miss an Indians game if other pressing needs arise. Just a simple few questions will determine whether today's starter will merely humble Indian bats or bury them, dig them up, spit on them, and rebury them. Either way, you can be self-assured that you will not waste a second of your life watching a dreadful offensive performance. Of course, I make no promises that, if directed to watch the game, the offense will be merely awful or even slightly horrific. But I do promise that by using this simple scale, you can avoid watching a dreadful offensive showing. Now onto the scale:

1. Which word most closely describes today's pitcher?

A. Crafty
B. Veteren
C. Inconsistent
D. Baseball Tee

2. How many years has today's starter been in the majors?

A. 15+
B. 10-14
C. 5-9
D. >5

3. Is the starter:

A. Left-handed
B. Right-handed
C. Ambidextrous
D. Armless

4. Does the lineup have in it:

A. Aaron Boone and Casey Blake
B. Aaron Boone, but not Casey Blake
C. Casey Blake, but not Aaron Boone
D. Neither

For each "A" answer, add 25 points
For each "B" answer, add 15 points
For each "C" answer, add 5 points
For each "D" answer, add 0 points

If the pitcher received 0-25 points: The Indians have a chance to score 4 runs...celebrate!
If the pitcher received 26-50 points: Play a game of solitare while the team bats, looking up occasionally on the off-chance that the team gets a runner on base
If the pitcher received 51-75 points: Go ahead, go on that date! You might check the radio now and again, though; the team might win 1-0, you know.
If the pitcher received 76-100 points: I hear that a dentist appointment followed by an IRS audit is a great way to kill three hours....

Waiting For Gerut

2005-05-16T18:03:00.000-04:00

On Saturday, I mentioned in passing that the Indians optioned Jody Gerut to Buffalo. The biggest issue with Jody, according to the team, is that he doesn't currently have the mobility to play right field. According to Hal Lebowitz (sorry, no official link, although you can find a fan transcript here), Gerut is saying that he's in Buffalo because the Indians don't want him to be arbitration-eligible after the season. As it stands right now, Jody has just over 2 seasons' worth of major-league service time. Arbitration kicks in automatically for players with three seasons of service time and a percentage of players between two and three years of service time. While Gerut does have a point, I doubt the Indians are keeping him in Buffalo for that reason alone, given the team's offensive needs.

There are few people who would argue that the Indians don't have a weak-hitting outfield. Coco Crisp, who is really a center fielder, is playing left field, and Casey Blake, who was formerly a third baseman, is playing right. Grady Sizemore is the only guy who really is a good offensive and defensive fit at his position. The team needs more punch at its corners, especially its corner outfielders. Blake (-2.1 VORP) is the biggest culprit, but Coco Crisp (.415 SLG) in my mind doesn't provide enough power or on-base ability (.333) to be a legitimate left fielder.

Enter Gerut, and eventually, Juan Gonzalez. Both have at least some track records of offensive production, although in Gerut's case that track record is based primarily off his 2003 season. Juan Gonzalez, when healthy, is a pretty good hitter. But for Juan, "when healthy" over the past couple of years has meant "almost never." Gerut is obviously going to be ready sooner than Juan, but Gonzalez could be in Cleveland by the middle of June.

Unfortunately, it isn't as simple as just bringing Gerut or Gonzalez up to Cleveland; someone has to go. Casey Blake was just extended over the offseason (a move that I didn't like when it happened), Ryan Ludwick is out of options, and given the interest in Michael Restovich, the Indians aren't getting him through waivers, and Aaron Boone can't go to the minors without his consent. The Indians have about ten days to mull over what to do, and short of Boone agreeing quietly to go to Buffalo, whatever move they make will have some long-term consequences.

Then there's Grady Sizemore, who has several options left. Of course he's given the team no real reason to send him back, but thanks to baseball rules, he's a likely candidate to lose out in the outfield shuffle. I think that barring a trade, Sizemore will get optioned, Crisp will go to center, Blake to left, and Gerut will return to his accustomed position in right field. And the Indians will still have two corner players hitting under the Mendoza line playing every day.

Lost and Found

2005-05-14T01:50:00.000-04:00

I guess tonight was supposed to be how the Indians were supposed to win this year.

In a matchup of 2004 All-Stars, Jake Westbrook was the better pitcher, although he would have been hard-pressed to be worse than his counterpart. Ted Lilly, who missed several weeks in Spring Training, was awful. He walked five, struck out one, and when he did get the ball over the plate, Tribe batters got him for three hits. Ben Broussard, who seems to thrive with the bases loaded, lined a well-placed double in the right field gap to clear the bases in the first inning, and the team didn't trail again.

The rain came in the third inning, and given Lilly's performance up to that point, it seemed the Jays had the advantage. When Jason Davis, who I think needs more consistent work, gave up a home run to Alex Rios (the second of his career) and a base hit to the next batter, I felt the game was slipping away. But JD settled down and retired the seven Blue Jays, and turned the ball over to the back end of the bullpen. Three innings and a Ryan Ludwick homer later, the Indians had won a surpisingly undramatic 6-4 contest.

A note on Bob Howry. He seems to be suffering from a bit of control issues, which looks to be stemming from his release point. During a shot of him warming in the bullpen, Luis Isaac was demonstrating how Bob should be finishing his delivery. Several times during his inning of work, it looked like he held onto the ball too long, and his pitch tailed down and away. It's not a huge deal, but something to watch. I think David Riske will be getting more appearances in the eighth inning; he and Arthur Rhodes have been the most consistent arms out of a pretty consistent bullpen. Rhodes in particular has been excellent; his three-pitch strikeout of Corey Koskie tonight was exquisite.

I scratched my head when the lineup was posted. I understand that Ted Lilly is left-handed, but I don't see the need to drop Ben Broussard that far down in the order, much less hit Jose Hernandez and Ryan Ludwick 4-5. Yes, they both had good games, but I sometimes think that tinkering has its limit.

Victor Martinez is a completely different hitter depending which batter's box he's in. Take this with a grain of small simple size salt, but Victor is hitting .375/.432/.594 right-handed and .152/.230/.215 left-handed. It kind of reminds me of Jose Valentin, who was a switch hitter in name only. The good news for Victor is that another left-handed pitcher (Gustavo Chacin) is toeing the mound tomorrow. The bad news is that it's a day game after a night game, meaning Josh Bard will probably get the start. I guess this belies the work switch-hitters have to put in to maintain not one, but two batting stances.

Transactions

Reinstated Jody Gerut from the 15-day Disabled List; Optioned Him to Buffalo (AAA)

Jody was obviously not happy about the demotion, but the Indians are between a rock and a hard place right now. Jody's mobility isn't all the way back, and I don't think the team wants to pull the trigger on a tough move without making 100% sure that Jody is capable of playing right field. Speaking of Buffalo, Brandon Phillips is back from the dead; he's now hitting a more respectable .242/.301/.439. Whatever plate discipline he showed in 2004 seems to have gone away though; Brandon has whiffed 29 times to 10 walks. Mike Kinkade, who can play third base, would be a nice short-term fix if Boone does go to the minors. Besides his ability to get hit by pitches, he's walked 11 times as opposed to 15 strikeouts. He's slugging .495 for the Bisons.

Placed 1B Ryan Mulhern on the Disabled List (A+ - Jaw); Demoted IF Anthony Lunetta to Kinston (A+) from Akron (AA)

The converted outfielder literally took one on the chin in batting practice. That's too bad, since the 2003 draft pick was off to a pretty good start (.307/.393/.594)

Placed SS Brandon Pinckney on the Disabled List (A+ - finger); Reinstated C Clayton McCullough from the Disabled List

Another literal bad break for a member of the K-Tribe. Pinckney, who had a breakout year in 2004, was hitting just .222/.250/.333, but nevertheless, losing a middle infielder isn't a great thing for the organization give the dearth of prospects at short and second.

Placed RHP Travis Thompson on the Disabled List (AA - shoulder); Received RHP Kyle Evans from Extended Spring

Around the League...

The Chicago White Sox have now had the lead in every one of their games, shattering a major-league record. What's even more amazing about their fast start is that they've been a below-average offensive club, hitting a collective .259/.325/.397. Now obviously their stellar rotation (3.09 ERA) has a lot to do with that, but over the long haul, I just can't see them winning at the same pace with those numbers. But by the time they drift back to earth, their margin might be too much for the other teams in the division to overcome. Minnesota, probably the most balanced team in the division, is off to a pretty good 20-13 start, but they're already 6 games behind the Sox. Amazing.

Better Than Average

2005-05-12T02:01:00.000-04:00

5-4 isn't a bad record for a road trip, considering the places where the Indians had to play. The pitching was pretty decent, with some exceptions, and offense got incrementally better. Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta, the two youngest members of the lineup, started to hit and (more importantly) hit for power; both players are now slugging above .400.

In my opinion, what's really holding the offense back is the revolving door at the top of the order. Hell, the whole lineup has been a game of musical chairs, but the whole thing starts with the leadoff hitter. Frankly, there's no one perfectly qualified for the spot right now, but I think Coco Crisp is the closest thing this team has to one. To that end, here's my "set in stone" lineup:

LF Crisp
CF Sizemore
C Martinez
DH Hafner
RF Blake
1B Broussard
2B Belliard
3B Boone
SS Peralta

There's speed at the top of the order, although the on-base skills are lacking. But beggers can't be choosers. Casey Blake, second only to Travis Hafner as far as working counts is concerned, is hitting below .200, so just about anyone else there is an improvement. Well, there is Aaron Boone...

The Indians may have to make a difficult decision in the next couple of weeks. Jody Gerut, barring a setback, should be good to go in 7-10 days. He does have a couple options remaining (hat tip to reader Ron) , so the Indians can take the easy way out and simply option him to Buffalo until a spot opens up. Other candidates for demotion are Grady Sizemore and Ryan Ludwick; Grady has options remaining, while Ryan does not. There's the possibility of Aaron Boone accepting an assignment, but I think that's far-fetched. A couple readers have suggested this, but (a) I don't think the team would even ask him, and (b) there's very little chance he'd agree to go to the minors. Another option is to send down a pitcher, and go with an 11-man rotation. But I think carrying that many outfielders would mean that nobody would get consistent playing time, which is bad for all involved. These dilemmas tend to sort themselves out, but if a conveinient out doesn't present itself, a tough decision will have to be made.

The Indians' bullpen has quietly chugged along, keeping the Tribe in a lot of games. Because of the paucity of runs, the bullpen has really won a lot of games; I referenced the percentage of saves to wins last weekend, and since then, Wickman has saved game number nine. While it's nice that Wickman has that many saves, it again belies the slim margins the team has to contend with to win games. I'll stop beating that horse now.

Kevin Millwood has surprised me; not necessarily that he's pitched well, but his velocity has really gotten my attention. He could be the signing of the offseason, especially considering what some of the other free agents have been doing:

VORP, 2004 Free Agent Pitchers

Kevin Millwood 10.8
Eric Milton -3.2
Matt Clement 9.3
Jon Lieber 15.0
Carl Pavano 0.0
Pedro Martinez 14.6
Jaret Wright -9.5
Brad Radke 8.6
Russ Ortiz 1.0
Derek Lowe 11.7
Paul Byrd 0.6

Ryan Garko is mashing again after a slow April. Ryan's AAA line is now at .313/.387/.545 with a decent 19/11 SO/BB ratio. Ryan is really only a catcher or a first baseman given his physical ability, so third base is not an option. If Martinez, Hafner, or Broussard go on the DL, Ryan should be the first one called up. As of now, there's no way to fit him on the roster. Also performing well is Fernando Cabrera; he seems to be over the control problems that plagued him in Spring Training (1 BB in 13.2 IP).

JD Martin, who had been off to a great start for the Aeros, has been placed on the DL with an elbow injury, but it doesn't appear serious, according to Akron manager Torey Lovullo. Kyle Denney is on Buffalo's DL with "right ulnar neuritis." I'm no doctor, but I think that means he has some type of nerve inflammation in his right elbow. To take Kyle's place, the Bisons received the zombie formerly known as Jason Bere.

The Options page should be updated soon.

The House of Whacks

2005-05-07T14:01:00.000-04:00

Arlington has been a house of horrors for the Indians in the past couple of years. I don't know if it's just a bad place for Indians pitchers, or if the Rangers hitters have figured out something that the rest of the league hasn't. That made last night's victory a welcome sight. The Indians used a first-inning implosion by Pedro Astacio to build a seven run lead, and held on in the late innings to beat the Rangers 8-6.

Grady Sizemore made two defensive plays in the field: one good, and one outstanding. The "good" play came in the 7th, where he made a catch against the wall; the "oustanding" play occurred in 5th inning, when Grady took away a Gary Matthews home run. Cliff Lee, who was pitching, doffed his cap to Sizemore, and deservedly so. But the catch was more important than it seemed at the time; the Rangers were down 8-1 at the time, but from the 6th inning on, they scored 5 runs and forced Eric Wedge to bring in Bob Wickman to close things out.

Cliff Lee, whose stuff doesn't really mesh with Arlington, pitched well enough, though he was the beneficiary of some fine defensive plays. Fellow flyball pitcher Scott Elarton pitches tonight, which doesn't bode well for the Indians; Scott hasn't won a road game in four years, and he's pretty close to pitching himself off the roster.

I think a swap of Jason Davis and Kaz Tadano would be a good move for both parties. The Indians still don't really know what to do with Davis, so I'd rather send him down to Buffalo and let him pitch regularly there until they figure out what his role is. Tadano, who has been the Bisons' long-man, has held opposing batters to a .209 average, and has walked 5 in his 24.1 innings of work. Brian Tallet would be a nice replacement for Scott Elarton; he's holding International League hitters to a .204 average.

By the way...Aaron Boone hit second in the order last night?!

The Margin of Error

2005-05-05T20:49:00.000-04:00

No, this isn't a poll; it's what the Indians have to deal with because of their offense.

The Indians are 10th in the AL in starting pitching and 3rd in relief pitching. They rank 6th in overall pitching. The boogeyman that was the bullpen seems to have been exorcised, but another one has taken his place, and this one resides in the team's bats.

What does a bad offense do? It makes the margin of error for winning much smaller. A prime example took place during Tuesday's win against the Twins. Joe Mays, who the Indians have historically owned, could have been forced out of the game multiple times. But he wasn't, allowing the Twins to get to their bullpen, and keep the game close. Minnesota was one hit away from tying the game. Some times you can blow the game; remember a game a couple weeks back against the Angels? Bob Wickman didn't really pitch poorly...but his one mistake (a leadoff walk) allowed Garret Anderson's bloop hit to tie the game, and eventually lead to an Angels' win.

An interesting (and crude) measure I like to look at is to see what percentage of a team's wins come with saves. The Indians have 11 wins, and Wickman has saved 7 of them. Now, there are other teams with higher saves per win ratios (the Pirates' Jose Mesa has saved every one of his team's wins as of yesterday), but 7 saves out of 11 wins is an indicator of how "tough" the team's wins have been.

On the other hand, BJ Ryan has only 5 saves; his team has 18 wins. The Marlins' staff only has 3 saves among them; their team has won 15 games. Notice a trend? A bad offense can make winning games a lot tougher, and makes the pitching staff throw more high-leverage innings.

So, now that I've made a circuitous explanation as to why a bad offense isn't conducive to winning baseball games, who are the culprits? Let's take a look at the lineup's VORP, along with their positional rank among AL players:

C Victor Martinez -.6 (23rd)
1B Ben Broussard 2.8 (9th)
2B Ronnie Belliard 6.7 (4th)
3B Jose Hernandez -1.9 (16th)
3B Aaron Boone -7.1 (Last out of 23)
SS Jhonny Peralta 1.4 (13th)
SS Alex Cora 1.5 (11th)
RF Casey Blake -.4 (13th)
CF Grady Sizemore 3.1 (9th)
LF Coco Crisp -2.6 (19th)
DH Travis Hafner 11.8 (3rd)

That's an ugly sight. Essentially, Belliard and Hafner are the only two players hitting better than league-average, you have Broussard and Sizemore a bit below-average, and the rest are scraping the bottom of the list. Boone's -7.1 VORP is astounding; only Jack Wilson has a higher negative VORP. Yes, some of these players (Victor Martinez, I'm looking at you) will bounce back. But some I'm not so sure of; Coco Crisp is a reach in left field even with his glove, and Casey Blake in right field was going to be average at best. What's even more amazing is that this is the lineup that started Opening Day; no one's (knock on wood) has gone on the disabled list as of yet.

So are there any reinforcements on the horizon? Yes. Jody Gerut is about two weeks from returning to the lineup, and he could add some punch to the lineup, pushing Coco Crisp or Grady Sizemore out of the lineup. There's Juan Gonzalez but....no, just forget about him. Among the regulars in AAA, Jake Gautreau and Ernie Young are having good seasons thus far. Ryan Garko is also available, but you'd have to find somewhere he could play. However, other than Gerut, I think the Indians are pretty much stuck with what they presently have. The team just has to hope that Boone can shake off 15 months' worth of rust, and that Victor can get hot.

Fits and Starts

2005-04-30T02:07:00.000-04:00

Baseball is funny. Sometimes it can be agonizing, but at times it can seem so simple and beautiful.

Yes, the Indians beat a Royals team that looked just plain awful. But I guess you have to start somewhere. Zack Greinke is one of the game's best young pitchers, and the Indians were patient, and started to the ball much they did last year; lots of doubles, taking pitches up the middle and the other way. Frankly, the Indians lineup isn't built like earlier incarnations, but they can be successful if they stick to what they do best.

If you want to show a young player how to hit, you could do a lot worse than to show tape of Travis Hafner. The only thing Pronk hasn't done thus far is to start hitting homers, but those will come. Victor Martinez, a notoriously slow starter, is looking much better at the plate. I don't think Grady Sizemore is ready for the top of the order, but then again, Coco Crisp hasn't been that much better.

During Thursday's game, Detroit manager Alan Trammel walked Ben Broussard, the go-ahead run, to get to Aaron Boone in the eighth inning. That tells you all need to know about how awful Boone has been at the plate. Did Jim Thome have slumps this bad? Yes, I know we're seeing a year's worth of rust coming off Boone's bat. Yes, I know Boone has been a maked improvement in the field. But a .130/.208/.319 line in the lineup every day is an enormous black hole, a singularity of offensive ineptness that seems to be sucking the offense from the players hitting around him.

If you haven't been looking ahead to May, be prepared for some brutal stretches in the coming weeks. After the Indians are finished with Kansas City, they go on a 9-game road trip to Minnesota, Texas, and Los Angeles. Ick. During the month of May, the Indians play the Angels six times and the Twins eight times. All of which makes taking care of business at home very important. A 3-6 record at the Jake isn't going to get it done.

CC Sabathia is looking very good. Granted, the lineup he faced tonight was barely International-League quality, but there were very few loud outs. When a pitcher is dominating, his outs are generally weak grounders, infield flies, and of course, strikeouts. Sabathia's control wasn't the greatest, but his stuff was excellent, as evidenced by all the weak outs coming from Royal bats.

Speaking of CC, check out the newly updated CC Hat Tribute at Mistake by the Lake. The Danny Ferry exhibit has me entertaining thoughts of constructing a baseball wing. Cory Snyder would obviously in the inaugural induction class, as would Jeff Manto and Chris Magruder.

Right now I'm working on the last two papers of my academic career. Boy does that feel good to say.

Finally, a word about the recently retired Paul Shuey. Paul had, when healthy, as good a pitching repetroire as any reliever in the game. But injuries literally cut Shuey's career in half. He was the Indians' first-round choice in 1992; a high-school shortstop from Michigan named Derek Jeter was taken by the Yankees four picks later. But he did make the majors, and was a key part of several playoff teams. Given recent history, I'd think he'll stay with the organization in some capacity.

Sabathia Signs!

2005-04-27T17:54:00.000-04:00

Well, it happened; the Indians have extended CC Sabathia through 2008. Think of the new deal as a two-year deal; Sabathia's current contract, which runs through 2006, will be kept intact. The 2007-2008 portion of the contract pays Sabathia $17.75M plus incentives. Those two years are important, because they are "free agent" years.

The breakdown by year:

2005 - $5.20M
2006 - $7M (option picked up)
2007 - $8.75M (free agent year)
2008 - $9M (free agent year)

Sabathia can also earn incentives during the last three years of the contract, and can make as much as $11.75M in 2007 and 2008.

For the Indians, this is not only a good deal financially, but an important turning point in public perception of the franchise. While the team gave out long-term deals to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, this deal is a much more important one because Sabathia would have been able to walk after the 2006 season. For a fan of a team who lost home-grown talent like Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez to free agency, today is a great day.

Prospect Profiles: Jason Cooper and Kevin Kouzmanoff

2005-04-24T12:39:00.000-04:00

Numbers 15 and 16 on my list are both college sluggers.

16. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
How Acquired: 2003 Draft (6th Round)
College: Nevada
ETA: 2007

Year	League	Age	AB	2B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
2003	SSA	22	206	8	8	2	.272	.342	.437
2004	A-	23	473	35	16	5	.330	.394	.526

Along with Pat Osborn, Kouzmanoff gives the Indians organization a pair of decent prospects at third base, an organizational black hole in recent years. Kouzmanoff had a fantastic year in his first season in a full-season league, although he posted those numbers at the age of 23. He's starting this year in Kinston, but I'd like to see what he can do in Akron before the season's over. He's not going to be a star by any stretch of the imagination, but he does everything well enough. BA's John Manuel pegs him as Casey Blake with less power.

15. OF Jason Cooper
How Acquired: 2002 Draft (3rd Round)
College: Stanford
ETA: 2006

Year	League	Age	AB	2B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
2002	A-	21	55	5	4	0	.255	.339	.564
2003	A-	22	262	17	12	3	.298	.385	.553
2003	A+	22	218	17	9	3	.307	.380	.528
2004	AA	23	422	24	14	2	.239	.321	.424
2004	AAA	23	52	1	3	1	.173	.295	.365

After a great 2003 campaign split between Lake County and Kinston, the AA level proved difficult for Cooper, and thus far a return engagement hasn't been good. A couple things are working against Jason. First of all, he's at best a left fielder, thanks to a poor throwing arm. Secondly, there's a lot of outfield competition in the organization, from Sizemore and Crisp in Cleveland to Gutierrez and Snyder in the high minors. He was left eligible for the Rule 5 draft, one of the better position players unprotected, but didn't get picked. He's a guy who has good power potential, but like a lot of power hitters has to be able to control the strike zone. So far in Akron, he hasn't been able to do that, posting a poor 25:8 SO/BB ratio. His stock is falling rapidly in my opinion.

A Quick Update

2005-04-22T04:13:00.000-04:00

Posting will continue to be light for the next week or two. I'm graduating in mid-May, so I have a lot things to take care of in real life. Until then, I'll try to drop by twice or thrice a week, which isn't as often as I'd like, but circumstances mandate it.

The past three games have featured crushing losses, although of different variaties. At least the team has chosen multiple ways to lose, right? Thursday night's loss to the Angels rates as the most bizarre of the three (Alex Cora playing left field?), although the formula of losing close games has remained the same. Most of the blame has to be laid at the feet of the offense. The lineup let Jarrod Washburn off the hook, and kept the Angels in the game. While Bob Wickman deserves some of the ire due to putting the leadoff batter on in the 9th, the game should not have been that tight to begin with. When an offense isn't productive, little mistakes can mean the difference between victory and defeat. So far, the Indians have had to win the hard way, and that's not an easy way to accumulate victories.

Profiles of Jason Cooper and Kevin Kouzmanoff should be up on Sunday.

Pardon Me While I Get My Violin...

2005-04-18T16:49:00.000-04:00

George Steinbrenner is apparently angry at his teams' 4-8 start:

Steinbrenner issued a statement after the game saying, "Enough is enough. I am bitterly disappointed as I'm sure all Yankee fans are by the lack of performance by our team. It is unbelievable to me that the highest-paid team in baseball would start the season in such a deep funk. They are not playing like true Yankees. They have the talent to win and they are not winning. I expect Joe Torre, his complete coaching staff and the team to turn this around."

After the Yankees sweep the Devil Rays, this will die down. But it's a bit amusing to hear the Big Stein complaining after only 12 games.

Transactions

2005-04-18T02:39:00.000-04:00

Reinstated LHSP CC Sabathia from the 15-day Disabled List

From the looks of his performance, Sabathia appears to be over his oblique strain. CC was consistently reaching the mid-90s with his fastball, and his control was excellent; he walked only one batter. Thus far, pitching doesn't seem to be the weak link in the Indians' chain. With the return of Sabathia, Jason Davis moves into the "6th starter" role, where he'll relieve a starter who left early, or pitch multiple inning stretches during blowouts. This leaves one of the existing bullpen members out in the cold, and the winner is.....

Optioned RHP Matt Miller to Buffalo (AAA)

Unfortunately for Miller, he had an option remaining, so he gets sent to Buffalo. The ROOGY hasn't been used too much in the first two weeks of the season, and although he's sporting an ERA of 0.00, he'll join folks like Fernando Cabrera, Andrew Brown, and Jake Robbins in the Bisons' pen. Rafael Betancourt was the other possible demotee, but he's been even better than Miller, not allowing a hit in his 7.2 IP thus far. I think he's in a role where he can thrive as long as he's not overused; he can give you 2 inning stretches once or twice a week. Of course, now that Jason Davis is now a part of the bullpen, he might only be asked to go an inning at a time, but the use caveat still should apply.

Prospect Profiles: Dan Cevette and Justin Hoyman

2005-04-17T11:27:00.000-04:00

Time for a break from the major-leaguers, at least until they start playing like major-leaguers.

These two pitchers are both part of the Lake County rotation, although that's where the similarities end.

18. LHP Dan Cevette
How Acquired: 2002 Draft (3rd Round)
High School: Elkland HS, Pennsylvania
ETA: 2008

Year	League	Age	IP	ERA	H/9	W/9	SO/9
2002	R+	18	52	4.67	9.00	5.37	6.23
2003	R+	19	57.1	3.45	9.10	4.55	7.53
2003	SSA	19	7.2	8.22	16.43	5.87	3.52
2004	SSA	20	36	1.25	6.00	1.50	9.75
2004	A-	20	43.2	2.47	8.86	2.89	8.45

Until this year, the Indians have kept Dan in mostly short-season leagues, waiting patiently for his frame to fill out and for him to learn how to pitch. Last year in Mahoning Valley, Cevette finally was able to control his pitches, and his stuff did the rest. Towards the end of the year he was promoted to Lake County, where he held his own. Cevette throws in the low 90s, but his best pitch is his curveball. The Indians are conservative with young arms, but I can realistically see Dan in Kinston by July if all goes well. There's a lot of upside here.

17. RHP Justin Hoyman
How Acquired: 2004 Draft (2nd Round)
College: Florida
ETA: 2007

Year	League	Age	IP	ERA	H/9	W/9	SO/9
2004	SSA	22	13	2.08	6.23	2.77	5.54

Hoyman is a polished pitcher, and I think the Indians probably slotted him too low by starting him in Lake County. Hoyman had an interesting journey to professional baseball; his community college shut down after the 9/11 attacks (because tourism revenue dried up), and he got a scholarship at the University of Florida. Before his junior season, he put on 30 pounds, which increased his velocity by about 5 mph. He pitched well in a tough conference, and was rated by The Hardball Times as the third best pitcher in the college baseball. He's 23, so he has to move quickly. Not much upside, but he can be a decent starter in the majors. Hoyman's calling card is a heavy sinker, so think of him as Jake Westbrook Lite.

Game #10, Lineup #10

2005-04-15T18:35:00.000-04:00

Tonight's lineup:

CF Coco Crisp
2B Ronnie Belliard
3B Jose Hernandez
C Victor Martinez
RF Casey Blake
1B Ben Broussard
DH Ryan Ludwick
SS Jhonny Peralta
CF Grady Sizemore

One of the main reasons Hafner is sitting is his history vs. Santana: 0-7, 5 K.

Regardless, this might get ugly given the Indians' hitting woes and who's on the mound.

Ben Sheets

2005-04-15T17:10:00.000-04:00

Another data point for the Indians to refer to in their negotiations with CC Sabathia:

The Milwaukee Brewers have signed pitching ace Ben Sheets to a new four-year contract extension worth $38.5 million.

Sheets, 26, had signed a $6 million deal for 2005 in February, but left open the option of tearing it up and negotiating a new four-year deal or merely adding a three-year extension. The two sides agreed to tear up the old deal and sign a new extension through 2008

Like Sabathia, Sheets was under team control through 2006, so this deal is very relevant. Johan Santana's deal was also made under similar circumstances; he's receiving $40M over the next four seasons. As it is now, it'll probably take about $9M a year to get Sabathia locked up through 2008. Is that a good investment? Well, $9M is a very large chunk of the current team payroll, and there's the injury factors. But in today's market, you're going to pay at least $7-8M for decent starters, not to mention the price tag for top-of-the-rotation guys.

I say if you can lock up CC through 2008 for $34M or less, you do it. As you approach Sheets or Santana money...well, I'm glad I don't have to make those types of decisions.

Carnival of the Enigmas

2005-04-15T01:26:00.000-04:00

Let's start out with Milton Bradley. A recent Los Angeles Times article sheds some light on what happened behind the scenes during Milton's turbulent 2004. There's some interesting tidbits in the article, including Bradley's relationship with CC Sabathia:

Former Cleveland teammate and close friend C.C. Sabathia had a candid discussion with Bradley on Super Bowl Sunday, saying he was still angry because Bradley's behavior prompted the trade to the Dodgers before last season.

The final incident in Bradley's tumultuous 2 1/2 years in Cleveland came at the end of spring training when Manager Eric Wedge thought Bradley did not run out a pop-up.

"C.C. is like my brother and when he said, 'You left me and I'm still upset,' that was real," Bradley said. "We wanted to turn Cleveland into a powerhouse, and I see now that my actions were wrong and hurt people."

When the Dodgers traveled from Vero Beach, Fla., to Winter Haven to play the Indians in spring training, Bradley made sure he was one of the few regulars to make the two-hour bus ride.

"By trading me they made a big statement about the direction the organization was going," he said. "I understand they had to do it. I needed to go to Winter Haven to talk to some people. I needed to go for closure."

This obviously is a markedly different outlook than the one he had immediately after the trade. I guess it's easy to be cynical with Bradley, considering all the other times he's appeared contrite. But I still hope that Bradley can finally put aside his emotional issues and have a stellar career in baseball.

Next is Albert Belle. Justice B. Hill's piece on Albert is right on the money; for all his well-documented flaws, Belle was the best player of the mid-90s Indians, and it's not even close. Belle was one of the most feared hitters in baseball during the peak of his career; unfortunately, his ability as a player was often overshadowed by his persona. It never helps your image when you don't talk to the media, and undoubtedly a lot of baseball writers took shots at Albert because he didn't to them talk after games. Belle wouldn't defend himself, so the only view of Belle the fans saw was the intense player on the field, and broken thermostats and rebuffed Trick or Treaters away from the diamond. Obviously there were players who were liked more, but Belle was simply the best player on those teams. Hill sums up his article thusly:

Hate him for his surliness; that would be just. But realize, too, that no player out of that class of talent in the 1990s produced as much when it mattered as Belle did.

I have no doubts that whenever Belle is up for the Hall of Fame, a lot of writers won't vote for him because of who Albert Belle was; an intense, surly, sometimes confrontational superstar. I still remember him as a phenominal baseball player, whether I was watching him in Canton or in Cleveland. Unfortunately, separating the persona from the athlete isn't something sportswriters do well.

Hey, let's talk on-the-field issues!

The Indians beat the White Sox 8-6 last night, no thanks to Ben Broussard and a kid sitting in the left field corner. Broussard frittered away a run because he didn't step on the bag, while the kid interefered with Grady Sizemore's fifth inning double. Aaron Boone would have scored from first if the ball wasn't touched. Fortunately, neither run made a difference in the game, as the bullpen once again slammed the door shut, preserving a victory. Credit also has to go to Alex Cora, who made several exceptional plays in the field, as well as "bunting" a base hit through the left side, setting the stage for a three run sixth. Thus far, both Cora and Hernandez has been as advertised.

Both Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez look to be back on track, but Aaron Boone still looks lost at the plate. Ryan Ludwick has gone 0-for-the-season so far, which is huge since Casey Blake is still out with a hamstring tweak. Well, there's Juan Gonzalez and his hammy as well, but I guess there no point in mentioning him considering that Juan's hamstring injuries are usually of the season-ending variety.

Walking Willie Harris (lifetime .305 OBP) and Timo Perez (lifetime .306 OBP) to get to Paul Konerko is just asking for trouble, and that's what Scott Elarton got.

Grady Sizemore's opposite-field double in the fifth illustrates his potential. I think he just needs more playing time.

I really have no idea who gets sent down when Sabathia is activated for Sunday's game. Neither Betancourt and Miller deserve a demotion, and I'd like to see Jason Davis to remain on the roster to provide some length to the bullpen. Maybe Scott Sauerbeck gets some tendinitis between now and then. I guess you'd rather have these decisions to make then the pitching moves the Indians had to make last year at this time.

A New Pronktract

2005-04-13T16:21:00.000-04:00

Signed 1B Travis Hafner to a three year, $7M contract with an option for 2008

The contract essentially buys out his arbitration years; the contract is timed so that Hafner will be able to file for free agency after the 2008 season.

First of all, let me say that I like Hafner; he's a tremendous talent. That being said, I think this a mistake. Not a huge mistake, given the dollars involved, but a mistake nonetheless. Hafner is as about as close as you can get to a full-time DH, and if Michael Aubrey progresses as planned, that's where Pronk will stay. Designated hitters are fairly easy to come by, and although Hafner's 2004 was an MVP-caliber season, his value to the team wasn't as much as Victor Martinez's was. Martinez plays a position where any offense is a bonus; locking him up is a great idea. Locking up Pronk is more questionable. I'll have more on this in the coming week.

Placed 2B Danny Garcia on the Disabled List (AAA - shoulder); Recalled IF Jake Thrower from Extended Spring

It looks like it's bad karma to be the Bisons' starting second baseman. Warren Morris injured a finger in Spring Training, and now Garcia is out with a shoulder problem. Thrower is a AAA veteren, though this is his first time in the International League.

Placed OF Ben Francisco on the Disabled List (AA - thumb); Promoted OF JJ Sherrill to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

Promoted OF Ricardo Rojas to Kinston (A+) from Lake County (A-)

Weekend in Review

2005-04-10T22:52:00.000-04:00

I've been hammered with projects and papers recently, but the end is in sight! Well, at least I can see a speck of light in the tunnel I'm currently in.

Even with the six runs off Jeremy Bonderman in the first inning today, the Indians' bats have really been quiet. The team is ranked near the bottom in several offensive categories, including batting average (13th), OBP (13th), Slugging percentage (14th), and hits (14th). The defense has been even worse than the offense; the team is ranked last in fielding percentage.

So how did the Indians go 3-3 on the road trip? This may come as a shock to most of you, but it's mainly because of the bullpen. The bullpen's ERA the first week of the season was 2.63, good for 3rd in the league. Tribe relievers are holding opposing batters to a .516 OPS, and they sport a very good K/BB ratio of 4.00.

Of course all of these numbers are subject to the sample size rule, and things can (and probably will) change drastically in the next couple of weeks. Bob Wickman bounced back from his horrendous outing against the White Sox to save two games this weekend. Jake Westbrook will probably bounce back after laying an egg this past Saturday. Jhonny Peralta will settle down in the field. Making too much of one week's worth of games is a very easy trap to fall into, especially since that one week is the only piece of evidence you can relate to. Terry Pluto, as usual, is the voice of reason, commenting on Peralta's early defensive struggles.

Sheldon Ocker is out with a Dolan is Cheap!^TM column, calling out ownership for possibly letting CC Sabathia walk two years from now. These two paragraphs taken together are quite humorous:

With insurers limiting coverage of players' contracts to no more than three years, and pitchers being more vulnerable to serious injury than position players, the wisest course might be to limit a proposed contract for Sabathia to three seasons, maybe with a fourth-year club option.

But Sabathia is 24. He would be only 29 after the option season ended, and Shapiro would have to start all over again -- and next time he would be forced to offer stratospheric money.

So which is it? Should they only give him a short-term deal because of health concerns, or should they try to lock him up for longer? The rest of the article goes back and forth in the same fashion. Here's my take: now is the time to get an extension in place, probably an extra two years would be the best they could do. Use the recenet extensions of Freddy Garcia and Johan Santana as templates. If he wants to test the free agent market, then there isn't much you can do; if he wants to pitch in the Bay Area, there isn't much you can do. I do think it's very possible to get an extension done through 2008; the team is heading in the right direction, several similar deals have been signed, and the team and Sabathia has gotten along well. Beyond that, you just have to see how things work out. Cleveland isn't a market where you can pay many players top dollar; that's just part of the current financial status of baseball.

There's good news and bad news from Extended Spring Training. Jody Gerut has been cleared for game situations, but 2004 draft pick Scott Lewis is on the shelf with shoulder soreness. Lewis, who underwent shoulder surgery while at Ohio State, is on a "non-throwing" program, so hopefully simple rest will be enough.

Turnabout is Fair Play

2005-04-08T03:03:00.000-04:00

Well, Shingo Takatsu decided to do his best Bob Wickman imitation yesterday, serving up three home runs in the 9th inning. While Casey Blake is a decent power threat, the fact that he gave up taters to both Coco Crisp and Ronnie Belliard suggests that Takatsu was just throwing "hit me" fastballs.

Cliff Lee was horrible in his first start of the season. As usual, his problems stemmed from his lack of control. Yes, he only walked one batter, but he also fell behind almost every hitter he faced, and when that happens, even the best get hit hard. Lee's great stuff make outings like these so frustrating; you know he's *this* close to being a very good starting pitcher, but a simple lack of control is keeping him from making a giant leap forward.

Of course the good news is that after Lee left the game, the White Sox didn't score again. Betancourt looked outstanding, striking out four in his 2.2 innings, as did Riske, Howry, Rhodes, and Miller. The only two that didn't pitch in the game were Bob Wickman and Scott Sauerbeck, who may have some arm issues. The best stat (at least by my tastes) is this: after Lee left the game, Indians pitchers did not walk a single batter. Making hitters earn their way on base is a key to successful bullpen, and the five pitchers today followed it.

The Indians did benefit from some of White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen's moves earlier in the game. He used three relievers in the seventh inning, which left him short after the Indians sent the game to extra innings. Luis Vizcaino was the last arm available by the 10th, and after the Indians had scored 6 runs in the 11th, backup catcher Chris Widger was warming up.

Well, That Was Great

2005-04-07T13:35:00.000-04:00

I didn't think it was possible to give up four runs that quickly.

Kevin Millwood didn't look that good, but pitched around a lot of jams. Miller and Rhodes looked outstanding. But it was all for nought, for Wickman came into the game in the 9th and threw BP to the White Sox. Suddenly a lineup that had been effectively shut down for 16 innings looked like the 1927 Yankees.

Enough of that. I sure don't want to talk about it anymore.

The terms of Victor Martinez's five-year extension were released on Wednesday. The Indians have an option for 2010, which could keep Victor around an extra year, since he'd be eligible for free agency by then. As with these types of contracts, both management annn player take big risks. Giving a five-year deal to anyone is risky, and the Indians are on the hook for $15M through 2009. Of course Victor will be vastly underpaid if he continues to play at an All-Star level through the balance of the contract. Here's the breakdown by year of the dollars:

Signing Bonus: $1M
2005: $500,000
2006: $800,000
2007: $3M
2008: $4.25M
2009: $5.7M
2010: $7M Club Option (or $250,000 buyout)

My early take is that this is an absolute bargain for the Indians, provided Victor stays healthy; they have the option of buying out a free agent year to boot. But remember that these types of contracts don't always work out: see Joe Mays and Jaret Wright.

The next target for an extension should be CC Sabathia. The difference with Sabathia is that he has much more leverage than Martinez did. CC is eligible for free agency after the 2006 season, and given the exhorbitant contracts given out to starters last offseason, he could cash out in a big way if he tested the market. For the Indians, the Johan Santana signing may provide somewhat of a roadmap to get a deal done. Santana received a four-year contract worth $40M from the Twins in the offseason two years before he could test the free agent waters; obviously the Indians aren't going to go as high as that, but at least it gives the club something to work off of.

What about Travis Hafner? I don't think there should be a rush to lock him up. Wait a year, see if he can repeat his tremendous 2004 effort this year, and begin negotiations then.

Game 1: White Sox 1, Indians 0

2005-04-04T22:51:00.000-04:00

So much to talk about, so little time.

First of all, fantastic performance by Westbrook. The Konerko double was the only real mistake of his outing, but it ended up costing him the win. Unfortunately for Westbrook, Mark Buerhle pitched just as well; the two pitchers looked to be doppelgangers of each other. Both were throwing strikes, working quickly, and getting ground ball after ground ball.

Peralta's muffed attempt allowed Konerko to score; I don't think there's any question that if he fields the ball cleanly, Konerko, who's one of the slowest runners in the game, would have been out at the plate. That Peralta was one who made the error was too bad. I'll pretty much guarentee that at least one of the beat reporters say something to effect of "Vizquel would have made that play" in tomorrow's papers While they have a valid point, Peralta also made a play earlier in the game that Vizquel couldn't have made; he went to his right to field a ground ball in the hole, and forced the runner at second. Vizquel can't make that throw at this point in his career. But for Peralta, every error he makes is going to dredge up Vizquel references, and it really can't be helped.

Aaron Boone looked good at third base. It doesn't appear that his knee is bothering him, which is promising. But for goodness sakes, he needs to hit farther down in the order. Blake needs to be hitting fifth against left-handers and second against right-handers if Sizemore isn't going to be hitting second.

Last season Belliard's deep positioning at second base didn't really cost him. Today he was out position on Pierzynksi's dribbler; it didn't cost the team a run, as Westbrook induced Joe Crede to hit into a double play, but it's something I've been watching since Belliard joined the team.

Now the good news: it looks like the Indians have locked up Victor Martinez through his arbitration years. Shapiro termed the contract "historic" compared to other deals to players with the same amount of service time. I would guess that means Martinez's deal is going to be more than the extension signed by CC Sabathia, but considering that the Indians have locked up players like Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome at similar points in the players' careers, the statement piqued my interest. My hope is that the deal allows the team to keep Martinez past his free agent eligibility, which would probably be after the 2009 season. Martinez would be 30 in 2009, which puts him a bit past his prime, especially considering the his position. So regardless of how long he's signed, the Indians will probably be getting the best six years of Victor's career. Now it remains to see just how much they're paying him.

Thirty-eight minor-league players have been suspended by MLB for testing positive for steroids. There were no Indians on that list, but all of those mentioned train in Arizona. I'd have to imagine the Florida results will be announced in a couple of days.

Opening Day

2005-04-04T11:27:00.000-04:00

Is it me, or should the first Monday of the baseball season be a national holiday?

Anyway, I'll be stuck in class today while the Indians play; actually I won't be able to watch the entire Chicago series, which sucks.

The depth chart has been updated. Keep in mind that the Akron roster is a guess; the Aeros, like usual, haven't posted anything in regards to their roster. The rest should be fine.

I should be back tonight.

Juan....Gone

2005-04-01T15:09:00.000-05:00

Placed OF Juan Gonzalez on the 15-day Disabled List (hamstrings)

Well, who knew that the chewing gum and baling wire holding Juan together would deteriorate this quickly? Well, perhaps they held him together just long to make the team and then, exhausted with relief, fell apart. Hamstring injuries don't go away easily, and can linger for a long time. Pedicting 200 at-bats for Juan this season is probably optimistic.

Recalled OF Grady Sizemore from Buffalo (AAA)

By "Buffalo" I mean the next baseball field over in Winter Haven, because that's where he was playing. At least he didn't have to put any extra miles on his car while driving to Cleveland. It looks like Grady will be eased into the lineup, sitting against some left-handers (for example, against Mark Buerhle on Monday), but otherwise should be playing in center field every day. I think it's worth a shot to bat him second against right-handers, with Belliard replacing him against southpaws. Unfortunately, Aaron Boone looks to be miscast in that role. Boone doesn't walk much (.332 career OBP), and isn't a contact hitter (his 162-game strikeout average is 103). The lone justification for hitting him second might be his speed, but the Indians don't run often enough to take advantage of it; besides, why run when you have Hafner and Martinez up? Boone is a useful hitter, but he belongs farther down in the order. Heck, Casey Blake is a much better alternative, given his prowess against right-handed pitching and patience at the plate.

April Fools

A great read today is Mistake by the Lake's April Fools columns, one for each Cleveland team. Check out the Indians section, where Corey gives a pretty convincing argument why the Indians are destined to fail this year. Now I know why the Yankees signed Tony Womack in the offseason...

Out with the Old...

2005-03-31T01:28:00.000-05:00

Released LHP Graeme Lloyd and OF Darren Bragg

Because of a tighter allotment of visas, the Indians couldn't keep Australian citizen Lloyd in their organization; he may have a tough time finding another one. Bragg should latch on with a AAA team near you.

And In with the New

Tomorrow we should know for sure who's playing where in the organization. I've take the liberty of guessing where the top prospects are playing, so take those with a grain of salt. I'll tackle completing the rest of the Depth Chart this weekend, so it should be all done by game time on Monday.

A Season Preview

2005-03-30T20:04:00.000-05:00

I dislike making discrete win-loss predictions, and I try to stay away from predicting division winners, because I don't follow other teams to the degree I follow the Indians. Just think of this as a movie review without an arbitrary star rating.

The Indians are a better team than last season. There are less question marks on the roster, though they all haven't disappeared. When you have one of the lowest payrolls in the league, it's impossible NOT to have question marks. But the good thing about this roster is that there is little dead weight. Gone are John McDonald and Tim Laker, roster filler. Ryan Ludwick is a better fourth outfielder than Alex Escobar. Jose Hernandez is a better 1B platoon option than Lou Merloni. The bullpen (on paper) looks better, although I said the same thing last year. Kevin Millwood should improve the starting rotation, although an expected regression by Jake Westbrook may cancel out any gains brought about by the addition of Millwood.

Conceptually, what the Indians have done since June 2002 has to be considered a success; three years after dismantling an aging, overpriced team, they enter 2005 a young, exciting, and (most importantly) talented club. The real obstacle is still ahead, though. Getting to .500 isn't too difficult; going from a .500 team to the playoffs is. For this team to make the playoffs, some things have to go right. Run prevention has to get better, because I don't see this offense scoring 858 runs again. The bullpen has be an asset, not a liability. And players have to stay healthy, especially guys like CC Sabathia and Victor Martinez. While the farm system once again was ranked among the top 10 in baseball by Baseball America, depth can't patch the size of hole that Martinez or Sabathia would leave if injured. Of course, you could say this about any organization in baseball, so maybe it's redundant. But I think it's at least worth mentioning.

Juan Gonzalez, the Injury Time-Bomb, is less important. Yes, he's a nice guy to have hitting behind Martinez and Hafner, but the team can manage without him thanks to the presence of Ryan Ludwick and/or Grady Sizemore. Alex Cora is a nice insurance policy to have in case either Ronnie Belliard or Jhonny Peralta land on the shelf. This major-league depth probably represents the largest improvement over last year. If all goes well, it should allow players like Belliard and Martinez to stay fresh through the summer months, and gives manager Eric Wedge better late-game options.

Bob Wickman is expected to anchor the Indians' bullpen, and if he stays healthy, should keep it functioning. I'm definitely not saying Wickman is a great closer, but his presence should allow players to succeed in roles they're comfortable in. Relief pitchers are the most volatile of baseball players, so I'd be lying if I expected the seven players who made the club to be on the roster by early October. Players like Jason Davis, Fernando Cabrera, Andrew Brown, Brian Tallet, and Jake Robbins may have to contribute if someone implodes. Again, this is where having a deep roster should help.

Do I believe the Indians are a "championship-caliber team?" No. There's too may weak spots on the roster for me to say that. I do think they're capable of winning the division, and I do believe that they've set themselves up for better things and lofter goals in the coming years. Considering where this team was in 2002, being able to say that represents a massive improvement for the organization, and a lot of optimism for Tribe fans everywhere.

Bartosh Traded

2005-03-29T23:38:00.000-05:00

Traded LHP Cliff Bartosh to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Bear Bay

Not a bad return for someone that Shapiro had to trade or lose. Bay isn't much of a prospect, but like Tom Mastny, he's an semi-interesting player. He's shown good control over his brief professional career (1.68 W/9), though that control may be all that's separating his 3.10 ERA last year from a much higher one, as evidenced by his hit rates. Bay should join Mastny in the Kinston rotation.

As for Bartosh, I think he can carve out a major-league career for himself, especially now that he's made a roster. But I thought the same of Carl Sadler and Alex Herrera, so take my opinions on young LOOGYs with a very large grain of salt.

Decisions, Decisions

2005-03-28T18:32:00.000-05:00

Optioned OF Grady Sizemore, LHP Brian Tallet, and SS Brandon Phillips to Buffalo (AAA)

If the Gonzalez/Sizemore decision was by proxy Shapiro versus Wedge, then it looks like Shapiro won the argument, although this doesn't really condemn Sizemore to the same fate as Brandon Phillips; it's mainly a matter of time until Juan tweaks something (it was the right hamstring today), so Sizemore should get significant playing time in Cleveland. Phillips, on the other hand, is probably stuck unless Jhonny Peralta goes on the shelf for a long period of time. With Alex Cora a very capable short or long-term fix, Phillips is going to have to really rake in Buffalo to get a callup before September. Brian Tallet probably was the biggest pitching surprise in camp, but with two left-handers already in the bullpen, Tallet fell victim to a numbers game. Matt Miller certainly didn't help himself in his last couple outings, but he was pitching to left-handed hitters, which isn't going to happen once the games start to count.

Speaking of left-handers, Cliff Bartosh is probably going to be dealt before the season starts. Contrary to what I believed, he has no options remaining, so rather than trying to sneak him through waivers, the Indians are going to try to get something for him. He's left-handed and breathing, so there should be some interest.

Assigned RHP Paul Shuey, RHP Steve Watkins, and RHP Jason Bere to minor-league camp

Watkins should go in Buffalo's rotation, while Shuey and Bere stay behind in Winter Haven to rehab.

Signed 2B Danny Garcia to a minor-league contract

He should take the place of Warren Morris, who's out after breaking his finger. Garcia is a mildly interesting player; he had a couple good seasons in the Mets organization, including a .333/.391/.530 for Binghampton in 2003. His line in the majors is .227/.345/.361, which isn't too horrid for a backup infielder (for reference, here's John McDonald's career line). Fortunately, he shouldn't be needed.

Prospect Profiles: Tony Sipp and Juan Valdes

2005-03-27T02:34:00.000-05:00

20. LHP Tony Sipp
How Acquired: 2004 Draft (45th Round)
College: Clemson
ETA: 2007

Year	League	Age	IP	ERA	H/9	W/9	SO/9
2004	SSA	21	42.2	3.16	6.96	2.74	15.61

One of the steals of the 2004 draft, the Indians enticed Sipp to forego his senior year at Clemson, giving him 6th round money. The large bonus seems to have been worth it; Sipp was lights out with the Scrappers, striking out 74 in 42.2 IP. Sipp has a nice fastball-slider combo, but the Indians want him to learn a changeup to round out his repetroire. Thus far he's worked out of the bullpen, but if all goes well he might move into a starting role as his strength and endurance improves.

19. OF Juan Valdes
How Acquired: 2003 Draft (5th Round)
High School: Fernando Callejo (Manati, PR)
ETA: 2008

Year	League	Age	AB	2B	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
2003	R+	18	130	3	1	5	.223	.275	.285
2004	R+	19	134	4	1	21	.269	.364	.381
2004	A-	19	97	0	1	20	.237	.345	.268

Why am I including a raw but "projectable" outfielder on this list, when there are other good prospects in the organization? Part of it is a leap of faith on my part, figuring that as his frame fills out, the power will come. Part of it is because he's already shown decent plate discipline. And part of it comes from glowing scouting reports. Valdes is a switch-hitter, a very good base stealer, and probably weighs 160 pounds soaking wet. If there's anyone in the organization poised for a breakout season, it's him. He's slated to start the season with the Captains.

Transactions

2005-03-26T01:21:00.000-05:00

Placed LHP CC Sabathia on the 15-day Disabled List (oblique)

This is the first trip to the DL in Sabathia's four-year career, and it doesn't look like he'll miss much time. Jason Davis, who looked good against the Reds on Friday, will take Sabathia's place in the rotation, and Matt Miller and Rafael Betancourt should both make the club as result. Jake Westbrook is slated to be the Opening Day starter.

Optioned Kazuhito Tadano to Buffalo (AAA)

Kaz didn't have too good a spring, posting an ERA of 9.00 (10 innings pitched). I'm going to assume he's still a starter, but that might be subject to change depending on the needs of the big-league club. The Bisons' pitching preview says Tadano could be either a starter or a reliever.

Assigned OF Andy Abad, IF Mike Kinkade, 1B Jeff Liefer, OF John Rodriguez, RHP Denny Stark, C Dusty Wathan, and LHP Chad Zerbe to minor-league camp

Most, if not all, of these players are going to play in Buffalo this year. Stark looks to be in the rotation, Liefer should be the starting first baseman, and Wathan will be Ryan Garko's caddy.

I've updated the Options page; after the season starts, I'll add salary and YOS info to the page as well.

Juan vs. Grady

2005-03-25T12:53:00.000-05:00

As Spring Training winds down, it's becoming more and more obvious that Juan Gonzalez might not make the team. Witness these quotes by manager Eric Wedge:

"I want someone who has the total package, the total game," Wedge said. "I want the offense, the defense, the persona, the attitude, the energy, the whole nine yards."

"I've got to know I can count on [Gonzalez]," Wedge said. "I've got to know he's going to show up and play on a daily basis. He's got to be able to play the outfield and handle himself out there."

Now maybe I'm reading too much into things, but quotes like that seem to be code for "Gonzalez hasn't been good enough." Granted, his recent hamstring injury may have something to do with Juan's Lawton-esque fielding this spring, but Juan being health is almost as important (or maybe moreso) as Juan hitting. If it were my decision, I'd probably keep him around, knowing that Sizemore, Ludwick, and (eventually) Gerut could pick up the slack if Juan ends up on the DL again. You also can't discount Grady's play, who has done nothing but impress team officials this spring. Casey Blake's smooth transition to the outfield probably plays a part in this decision as well; from what I saw yesterday, he looked pretty good in left field.

What part does defense play in this decision? Scott Elarton and Cliff Lee are fly-ball pitchers, so placing Sizemore in center, Crisp in left, and Blake in right probably helps them out. The "attitute and energy" probably favors Grady as well. I don't know how much the team will credit Sizemore for his "intangibles," but it's kind of interesting that the younger player in the battle might win a spot because of them. The offense is firmly in Gonzalez's favor; although Grady should eventually become a nice weapon at the plate, Juan is still the better hitter. Placing him behind Hafner and Martinez would be nice protection for the two third-year players, and would take some pressure off them as the league adjusts.

I personally think this uncertainty is due more to Sizemore's positives than Gonzalez's negatives. Yes, the hamstring injury was the event that put Juan's roster spot in doubt, but without Sizemore, Juan probably makes the team anyway.

The Moneyball Enigma

2005-03-24T00:24:00.000-05:00

I'm pretty tired of season previews and player profiles right now (although I am working on my long-neglected prospect profiles), so I want to delve into organizational strategies again.

The buzzword among baseball television analysts in recent years has been "Moneyball". To some it means geeks pounding away at keyboards in the Oakland front office. Whenever I'm bored enough to turn on "Baseball Tonight," usually a Moneyball-related zinger gets thrown out by one of the many of their esteemed commentators that is really totally unrelated to the thesis of the book. Sometimes I hear backlashes on radio broadcasts, usually off-hand references to closers or strikeouts or even on-base precentage. It seems that the book has perpetuated a myth that continues to grow to this day; that Moneyball is all about statistics.

No, Moneyball is not about on-base percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratios. The Oakland A's (much like the Indians are now) were in a situation where they didn't have the resources to outbid teams for top performers, so they looked for areas where players were under-rated by the market. In the late 1990s, the most undervalued players were those who didn't have high batting averages, but could take a walk. So GM Billy Beane picked up a lot of players who fit this profile at a discount rate. Guys like Matt Stairs and Olmaedo Saenz and John Jaha were picked up cheap, and rewarded Oakland with several good seasons. But over the past couple of years, the word's gotten out, and these type of players aren't as affordable as before.

What's the moral of the story? It isn't about OBP or whatever else is in vogue at the time; it's about finding players who are undervalued by the market. In recent years, defense has become an undervalued commodity. More recently, the Indians seem to have concentrated on injured players as undervalued commodities; they have been among the most-lauded organizations as far as rehab is concerned, and judging by some recent triumphs (Jack Cressend, Bob Howry, etc), they have had some success in this area. They have used minor-league free agency well, grabbling guys like Casey Blake, Matt Miller, and Rafael Betancourt for peanuts. What they've done isn't exactly what Beane did in Oakland, but the spirit seems to be the same; exploiting market inefficiencies to grab undervalued players. The Twins are probably one of the most stathead-phobic organizations around, but they do an excellent job in player development and scouting, which they use to their advantage. The Atlanta Braves have rode their tools-based philosophy to umpteen straight division titles. In other words, it isn't about OBP or drafting college players per se; it's identifying what you do best and using it as a competitive advantage.

But of course, your organization has to actually do something well in order to exploit it. If you run a small-market organization just like the Yankees, you won't win because you can't run your organization like the Yankees and have success. What works for some teams just won't work for others. The Atlanta Braves probably wouldn't be as successful if they went to a statistically-oriented player evaluation strategy. That's why it's possible to win in baseball despite the disparity in payrolls; teams do things differently. If you can structure your organization in a way that maximizes your chances of winning, whether that be by constructing a proprietary computer system or building a top-notch training staff, you can beat the big-money behemoths. You won't win every time, but that sure beats trying hopelessly to win by emulating the same strategy as everyone else.

More Assignments

2005-03-21T14:03:00.000-05:00

Placed OF Jody Gerut on the 15-day Disabled List (knee)

Because the Indians shouldn't need a roster spot right away, they're keeping their options open in case Gerut is ready to play sooner rather than later. If Jody is ready for action in late May, Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge have some interesting decisions to make. If you count Grady Sizemore, the team would have six competent major-league ready outfielders on the roster, and only Gerut and Sizemore have options remaining.

[EDIT] Reader Alex pointed out that Coco Crisp also has an option remaining. Which means the decision becomes even more interesting if everyone's healthy.

Speaking of options, I should have my options page up by the end of the week. Until then, here's the players which (I believe) have options (along with the years) remaining:

Pitchers: Cliff Bartosh (1), Rafael Betancourt (1)*, Andrew Brown (2), Fernando Cabrera (2), Fausto Carmona (3), Francisco Cruceta (2), Jason Davis (1), Kyle Denney (3), Jake Dittler (3), Jeremy Guthrie (1), Cliff Lee (1), Matt Miller (1), Jason Stanford (1), Kazuhito Tadano (2), Brian Tallet (1)

Catchers: Josh Bard (1), Victor Martinez (1)

Infielders: Jhonny Peralta (1), Brandon Phillips (1)

Outfielders: Coco Crisp (1), Jody Gerut (1), Franklin Gutierrez (3), Grady Sizemore (2)

I'm a bit unsure about Betancourt, but the rest I'm fairly certain about.

Anyway, back to the assignments:

Optioned RHP Fernando Cabrera, RHP Francisco Cruceta, and RHP Kyle Denney to Buffalo (AAA)

Cabrera has had a horrid camp; more specifically, he hasn't been able to throw strikes. Lack of control is the last thing you want a reliever to have, so he'll go back to Buffalo and work on his mechanics. Cruceta and Denney are probably among the top starter options should there be a need sometime this season.

Assigned C Ryan Garko, RHP Kenny Rayborn, and RHP Jake Robbins to minor-league camp

Garko, along with Franklin Gutierrez, has impressed the Indians the most this spring. Ryan is still a catcher, though that may be subject to change as the year progresses. If someone like Jose Hernandez has to go on the DL, I wouldn't be shocked to see Garko recalled to serve as a platoon first baseman. Rayborn and Robbins are both veteren minor-leaguers; Robbins probably has the better shot of a call-up.

Remembering Robbie

2005-03-20T02:12:00.000-05:00

Yesterday Roberto Alomar announced his retirement from baseball. For me, Alomar retiring before the 2005 is kind of a shock remembering how good he was in his three-year stint with the Indians. The season he had in 1999 ranks right up there with Albert Belle's 1995 as the best individual season I've seen an Indians player have. Here's his line in 1999:

563 AB, .323/.422/.533, 40 2B, 24 HR, 120 RBI, 37 SB, 6 CS

He finished third in the MVP balloting that year behind Ivan Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez (Manny Ramirez finished fourth). Those are impressive numbers at any position, but doing it as a second baseman is incredible. And, lest I forget, he won his 8th (out of an eventual 10) Gold Glove that year. Along with Omar Vizquel, Alomar formed the best double-play combination I've seen in my 20 years of watching baseball.

In 2001, Alomar finished 4th in MVP balloting, then fell off the face of the earth. I have no explanation as to Alomar's freefall, and no I don't think the trade had much of anything to do with it. Middle infielders tend not to age gracefully, but what happend to Alomar defies explanation. I guess you could compare Alomar's career to that of Carlos Baerga, but even that really isn't a good comp; Baerga was never that good a fielder, and Alomar was a much more patient hitter that Carlos was (and still is). The only parallels were that both were Indians, and both were dealt at exactly the right time. And both were traded to the New York Mets. My best guess is that he physically broke down all at once, including his reflexes and vision.

In my mind Alomar is as sure-fire a Hall of Famer as you can get. Assuming the writers look past the spitting incident and Roberto's other flaws (which is a big assumption, considering who votes for the Hall), I don't see how anyone can not vote for him based strictly on his playing career. He was the best second baseman of his era, he was a key contributor on two World Series champions, won 10 Gold Gloves, will finish with over 2700 hits, 1100 RBIs, finished in the MVP voting 5 times, was a 12-time All-Star, and finished his career with a .300/.371/.443 line. If Ryne Sandberg's in (and deservedly so), Roberto Alomar should definitely be in.

Transactions

2005-03-19T02:26:00.000-05:00

Optioned RHP Andrew Brown and OF Franklin Gutierrez to Buffalo (AAA)

It's been almost a year since Milton Bradley was traded to the Dodgers, and the rewards are close to being realized. Brown and Gutierrez both had tremendous springs, but need more seasoning at the AAA level (and maybe a little at the AA level for Gutierrez). Brown has been coverted to a relief pitcher, and may move quicker than Gutierrez, who has to polish his swing and contend with an organizational surplus of outfielders. Brown has great stuff, but needs to fine-tune his command to make it to Cleveland. Nevertheless, both have good shots at seeing action some time this season.

Denny Stark had been impressive so far this spring; he probably wasn't going to win a spot, but could have been among the early-season callups. Then this happened. He allowed 10 runs in 1.2 innings, and gave up two home runs (including one to pitcher Mike Hampton). Brian Tallet pitched well again, throwing two shutout innings; I've never been that impressed with Tallet even before the elbow injury, but he's left-handed, so he may work his way into a bullpen job down the road. And Juan Gonzalez played, which is always a good thing; at this point, Juan can't have another setback, or he'll probably be gone (no pun intended).

Don't miss the outstanding Indians preview from Baseball Think Factory's Matthew Rich. In the preview is included an interview with assistant GM Chris Antonetti, and one of the questions involved the team's willingness to sign injured players. Since injured players are going to be undervalued commodities, if you have a good rehab program, you can get a great return if the player recovers from an injury. If the team can build for itself a sort of niche as an organization that's good at resurrecting careers, they might attract more of these types of players based just on their reputation.

More Extensions

2005-03-17T01:18:00.000-05:00

Signed Manager Eric Wedge to a two-year extension (through 2007)

It's been two seasons since Eric Wedge became manager, and I still can't pidgeon-hole him. He isn't a true over-the-top firebrand like Larry Bowa, but he's an intense guy. He spends most of the winter in the front office consulting about player moves. From what I can tell, he gets along extremely well with Shapiro, and everyone in the clubhouse not named Milton Bradley. He's been judicious with young pitching, especially during the 2003 season. He was willing to be patient with young players. These things can obviously change, but two years is a long time to hide a flaw. His handling of the Bradley incident was exceptional; he showed a lot more restraint than I would have given the comments aimed at him after the trade.

But is he a good manager? The jury's still out. Until now, he hasn't been given enough ammunition to win with. Now, with the team a legitimate threat to win the division, we'll be able to answer that question.

Signed everyone else on the staff through 2006

This includes pitching coach Carl Willis, hitting coach Eddie Murray, third base coach Joel Skinner, first base coach Jeff Datz, bench coach Buddy Bell, bullpen coach Luis Isaac, and bullpen catcher Dan Williams. I like what Murray's done with the young hitters, and I'm not sold on Carl Willis yet. The others? Well, Luis Isaac has been in the organization forever, and the other guys seem to be doing a good job; I mean, how do you judge how well a first base coach does his job (and self-defense skills when in Chicago don't count)?

Tomorrow is the trifecta; St. Patrick's Day, the NCAA tournament, and the last day before Spring Break. I predict a massive flu outbreak.

Transactions

2005-03-15T03:52:00.000-05:00

Optioned RHP Fausto Carmona and RHP Jeremy Guthrie to Buffalo (AAA)

I guess you can see what the Indians think about Guthrie by sending him out this early in camp. I believe he's still a starter, but the clock is really ticking; I think 2005 is a "make or break" season for Guthrie. If he can't get out AAA hitters, especially at his age, he might be sent packing at the end of the year. His strikeout rate, even when he had success in 2003, was low; his career professional strikeouts/9 is 5.89. That's almost as low as Jake Westbrook's career numbers, and Jake is a groundball pitcher.

I'm a bit surprised that Carmona is being sent to Buffalo. He wasn't all that good in Akron last year, but maybe he's been impressive in camp. Given the Indians' usual conservativeness with promoting pitching prospects, this might be a good sign for Carmona. He turned 21 last December, so Fausto still has a lot of upside. I like his control, but he's still a bit too hittable to get me excited just yet. I placed him #5 in my prospect rankings, which might be a bit of an overreach in hindsight. But who knows?

Optioned RHP Jake Dittler to Akron (AA)

Ditter's downfall in 2004 was the drop in control. He'll have another year in Akron to get things figured out.

Assigned C Javi Herrera, IF Jose Morban, and 3B Jake Gautreau to minor-league camp

Herrera is a classic catch-and-throw backstop, but he's going to have to hit in order to be anything other than a backup catcher. Gautreau got a lot of playing time early in the season, but with Aaron Boone healthy enough to play everyday now, he's expendable. He's probably Buffalo's starting third baseman this spring.

Check out the Hardball Times' new article on line drives and future projections. Studes examines the difference between line drive rates and BABIP. On the offensive side, Travis Hafner made the list with a .170 difference between his LD% (.186) and BABIP (.356). What does this mean? Usually this indicates some luck, and the next year the hitter usually sees a decline in batting average. Hafner's kind of a strange addition to the list, because it's mainly filled with slap-hitting, speedy players like Ichiro, Alex Sanchez, and Rocco Baldelli.

Among pitchers, Jake Westbrook and Scott Elarton appear on the "lucky" side, and Kevin Millwood and Jason Davis appear on the "unlucky" side.

2005 Prospect Profiles - Honorable Mention

2005-03-14T09:28:00.000-05:00

First of all, allow me to comment on the NCAA tournament.

As someone who's seen a lot of MAC basketball games, I'm pretty ticked that the league didn't get an at-large team in the tournament. I guess the problem is that the league is so balanced that no team tends to stand out, but the selection committee has stiffed the conference for so long it's getting a bit comical. I'd probably take Miami-Ohio over Buffalo, but I really thought one of them would get in. Four teams (Miami, Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent) finished in the top 40 in RPI; Miami was the only school in the RPI top 30 not to make the tournament. Because the MAC is recognized as one of the better conferences in the country, no big program wants to play a MAC school on their home court. The MAC did get four teams into the NIT, but that's little solace for a conference that frankly deserved another NCAA bid.

Ok, rant over. Now for five guys that didn't make my prospect list, but are worth watching. Even with these mentions, I could feel comfortable mentioning 5-7 more, that's how deep the system is right now.

SS Brandon Pinckney
12th round, 2003 draft

Listed at 165 pounds, the David Eckstein comparisions seems apt. The Indians needed a shortstop in Akron last year, so they promoted Brandon all the way from Lake County; he responded by posting a .311/.388/.355 line, which is pretty good considering he had more at bats in rookie ball (257) than in Low-A ball (172) at the time. I still don't think his ceiling is that high, but he could make a nice utility player eventually. I would guess he starts the season in Akron.

RHP Kyle Denney
26th round, 1999

I've been banging the drum for him awhile, but Denney has gotten the Indians' full attention with a pretty good spring thus far. In his 5-year minor-league career, he's struck out 8.36 per 9 innings, and allowed 8.12 hits per 9 innings. He's going to be 28 this season, but he still deserves a shot at some point this year. And it looks like he'll get it, given the team kept him on the 40-man roster last winter. He'll start the year in Buffalo's rotation.

LHP Scott Lewis
3rd round, 2004

This is a projection pick, but the upside is there for Scott Lewis. The Ohio State product was injured much of 2004 (Tommy John surgery), but was dominant in 2003, striking out 127 in 83.2 IP for the Buckeyes. I'd guess he'd start in Lake County, so check him out this season if you're in the area.

RHP Tom Mastny
11th round, 2003 (Toronto)

He just turned 24, and he's only made it to the South Atlantic League, but he was so dominant in 2004 that I almost have to include him here. By all accounts his stuff isn't overpowering, but he someone who can prove himself every step of the way like Kyle Denney and make the majors. I'd guess Kinston as this year's destination for Mastny, or possibly Akron. He came in the John McDonald trade.

OF Mike Butia
5th round, 2004

There's a lot to like about Butia, who has good power, pretty decent speed, and is a good defender. Thanks to a backlog of outfielders ahead of him in the organziation, Butia might be stuck in Lake County much of next year, much like Ryan Goleski was in 2004. He was the first position player taken by the Indians in the 2004 draft.

Others worthy: 3B Matt Whitney, LHP Mariano Gomez, RHP Sean Smith, RHP Dan Denham, LHP Chuck Lofgren, C Wyatt Toregas, 2B Joe Inglett

Transactions

Assigned LHP Billy Traber, LHP Mariano Gomez, C David Wallace, and OF Darnell McDonald to minor-league camp

Traber isn't ready to pitch in game situations yet, so he'll continue to rehab in minor-league camp. Traber might be ready by the end of this season.

The Indians Compendium

Closing Time

Getting Back Off the Mat

Boone's Option Picked Up

Scott Elarton, Again

Transactions

Rafael Palmeiro...

*Yawn*

Friday Night Fights (Sort of)

Karma....and Casey Blake

Transactions

GM for a Day

Weekend in Review

Outside the Top 20 - The Relievers

Getting to the Bottom of the Offense

Defense for Offense

Assorted Depressing Topics

2002 Retrospective - Foreward

Back in Action

Survival Mode

Betancourt Suspended

Transactions

Alex Cora Traded...

Singled and Doubled

On Hafner

Fireworks on the Fourth

All Your Bases Are Belong To Us

Stepping Back

Prospect Rankings (Part Two) - June 2005

Pronk!

Kevin Millwood's Pitching Clinic

Weekend In Review

A New Look

Prospect Rankings (Part One) - June 2005

All Good Things...

Enjoying the Ride

Unsolved Mysteries

Life's A Beach

34-30

That Was Impressive

32-30

A 7-5 Road Trip

Transactions - Non-Cleveland Version

Just Another Extra-Inning Game

The Silver Lining

Eddie Murray Fired

Davis Up, Tallet Down

Ryan Ludwick Clears Waivers

Building a Mansion with Plywood

A Blast and a Bloop

.500

Buddy Bell, Juan Gonzalez, and Ryan Ludwick

Transactions

Fortes fortuna adiuvat

Enough

A Night at the Ballpark

20-23

Danny Graves..

19-23

A Bad Defense is a Good Defense?

Miller In, Davis Down, Crisp Out

The Crossroad of Careers

Everything That Rises Must Converge

The Byrd-Radke-Moyer Offense Scale

Waiting For Gerut

Lost and Found

Better Than Average

The House of Whacks

The Margin of Error

Fits and Starts

Sabathia Signs!

Prospect Profiles: Jason Cooper and Kevin Kouzmanoff

A Quick Update

Pardon Me While I Get My Violin...

Transactions

Prospect Profiles: Dan Cevette and Justin Hoyman

Game #10, Lineup #10

Ben Sheets

Carnival of the Enigmas

A New Pronktract

Yawn