When I heard that the Royals were interviewing bench coach Buddy Bell, I didn't give it much thought. "After all," I thought, why would the Royals hire a guy who was a complete bust during both of his coaching stints?"
It appears that I gave Royals management a bit too much credit; they have hired Bell as their new full-time manager, giving him a contract through 2007. Now don't get me wrong, Bell is probably a great guy to have around a team. But you can't tell me that he was the best option available. Grady Little, Bobby Valentine, or Davey Johnson would have been much better choices in my opinion. Ken Rosenthal summed things up nicely in regards to Bell:
Buddy Bell is a curious choice to manage the Royals.
Curious, because Bell was fired by the Tigers after growing frustrated in a low-payroll situation and engaging in a personality conflict with general manager Randy Smith.
Curious, because Bell reacted in similar fashion when his next team, the Rockies, went backwards, leading to a breakdown in communication with G.M. Dan O'Dowd and another dismissal.
In the article, Mark Shapiro said some nice things about Bell, but really, was he going to rip on him? For the role Bell played with the Indians, I didn't have problem with him. Would I want him as the manager of the team? Hell no. I'd rather go with an organizational guy like Wedge or someone with a good record somewhere else.
In other, more predictable, news:
Reinstated OF Juan Gonzalez from the 15-day Disabled List
Designated OF Ryan Ludwick for Assignment
I understand why this move was made; however, I don't like it. Ludwick, who probably isn't a starting outfielder at this point, is a great player to have on a roster to play against left-handers or pinch-hit late in the game. Ryan wasn't going to get a real opportunity anymore with the Indians, not with the current outfield situation, but that didn't make him a bad guy to have on your bench. Instead, the Indians will probably make Casey Blake the fourth outfielder, and continue to trot out Aaron Boone everyday. Yes, Boone may be gone when Coco Crisp comes back, but the timing on the two moves should have been reversed; Boone should have gone first, and then Ludwick.
Will the Indians get anything for Ludwick? Probably yes, given what Ludwick can do. USS Mariner and Lone Star Ball both want their respective teams to claim Ludwick on waivers, and there's a bunch of other clubs who could use Ludwick.
I've gotten a bit behind in the organization's transactions, so here's two weeks' worth:
Placed RHP Kevin Millwood on the Disabled List (groin)
You never know with injuries like groin or hamstring pulls, but Millwood shouldn't be out for an appreciable amount of time. Millwood has been impressive so far this season, and it should go without saying that he's a key piece to any possible playoff push.
Recalled LHP Brian Tallet from Buffalo
Promoted LHP Billy Traber to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)
Tallet hasn't pitched since his recall (although he has been seen throwing in the bullpen), but he should get a start sometime in the Chicago series. Jason Davis could take his spot, but Tallet's numbers have been pretty good in Buffalo; he allowed only 36 hits in his 46.1 innings while with the Bisons. In 2003, Tallet and fellow left-hander Billy Traber went under the knife for Tommy John surgery; Tallet looks to be ahead of Traber, but Billy is now at Buffalo, taking Tallet's spot in the rotation.
Promoted LHP Victor Kleine to Buffalo (AAA) from Extended Spring
Kleine now seems to be a full-time reliever. He regressed in 2004, posting a 4.95 ERA in Akron. He's one of only six drafted in 2000 still with the team, and one of only three who have reached AAA (the other being Brian Tallet and Joe Inglett).
Reinstated RHP JD Martin from the Disabled List (AA)
Martin's back from an "minor" elbow injury. JD, before landing on the DL, was in the midst of a breakout year, striking out 40 and walking 4 in 29 innings. If I had to redo my prospect rankings today, he'd be behind only Adam Miller and Fernando Cabrera as far as pitching prospects are concerned. Speaking of Miller, he's been throwing in Extended Spring, and he should be pitching with the Scrappers when short-season ball starts. After that, I'd assume he'd go to Kinston or Akron. That's good news.
Promoted RHP Tom Mastny to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)
Mastny has started only one game this season, so the Indians are probably trying to move him up the organization via the bullpen.
Placed Michael Aubrey on the Disabled List (AA - back)
Aubrey was posting decent numbers (.288/.345/.471) before the injury. It doesn't appear serious, but when little injuries start piling up like this, it may be a sign a lack of durability. Aubrey missed the latter part of 2004 with a hamstring injury, and part of 2003 with a quad pull.
Promoted OF Brian Barton to Lake County (A-) from Extended Spring
Barton was an undrafted free agent from Miami (FL), and it appears that the Sally League is a bit too easy for him; he's hitting .400/471/.667 in 60 at-bats.
Released LHP Derrick Van Dusen from Akron (AA)
And thus, the last link from the Brian Giles trade has left the organization. If you don't recalled the entire chain, here's a refresher:
1. OF Brian Giles traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for LHP Ricardo Rincon
2. LHP Ricardo Rincon traded to the Oakland Athletics for IF Marshall McDougall
3. IF Marshall McDougall traded to the Texas Rangers for LHP Derrick Van Dusen
Signed SS Jose Chavez and RHP Carlton Smith to minor-league contracts
Both are "draft and follow" signings, meaning that both were drafted in 2004 by the Indians, went to a junior college, and signed before the 2005 draft. Smith looks to be the bigger signing; he's the younger brother of Corey Smith. Chavez looks like a good-field, no-hit shortstop to me.
And finally...now that I've gotten my hands on a 2005 media guide, I've added years of service, 2005 salaries, and other useful information to my Options/Salary page. It's a geocities page, so just click on the ">>" tab to get rid of the advertisement. The page now includes everyone currently on the 40-man roster.
Watching this weekend's series, beyond getting a first-hand of how bad the Oakland Athletics are, I saw the potential for the team, with the addition of a big bat, to have a shot of at least the wild card. Now I have no idea if the White Sox will continue to win at their current pace (though as I speak the Rangers are doing a number on Jon Garland), but a 10-game lead is a huge obstacle to overcome no matter how early in the season it is.
Where would this "big bat" come from? Some think it will be Juan Gonzalez. Juan is probably going to start in right field in Minnesota, so he's the first contestant, although all indications show that Ryan Ludwick, not Aaron Boone would be the one squeezed out. Ludwick, who will probably get snapped up on waivers, is a guy I'd much rather have in the lineup than Boone at this point. Shapiro has shown an ability to admit his mistakes (see Jeriome Robertson, Scott Stewart, and Jose Jimenez), and if there was an example of a sunk cost, Aaron Boone is it. Convincing Boone to go to Buffalo not only betters the offense by removing a everyday black hole, but it keeps Ludwick around until Coco Crisp returns. Moving Casey Blake back to third isn't something I'm really enthused about, but I think the circumstances really dictate it.
Then there's the trade route. At the time of this writing, there probably isn't much the Indians could get besides an outright salary dump (Preston Wilson?), but there are a couple intriguing possibilities:
1. Placido Polanco. The Phillies have no real use for him; in fact, they didn't expect him to be back this season. Philadelphia offered him arbitration in the offseason, figuring they'd get a compensatory draft pick when he signed with another team. Imagine their surprise when Polanco accepted arbitration. Given what's happened to Boone, getting someone who can play third base well and hit well enough for a third baseman would be a nice fit for the team. The Phillies don't really need him, and it wouldn't take all that much to get him.
2. Joe Randa. You all probably know about what Randa does to Indian pitching. With the Reds already 13 games out from the division-leading Cardinals, they may start dealing some of their upcoming free agents. Randa isn't a spectacular offensive talent, but he's a solid fit down in the order. He's also a pretty good defender at the hot corner, and he obviously knows the pitching in the AL Central. The Reds are looking for pitching, and a mid-level prospect should be enough to get him.
You could also take advantage of your outfielder crunch by dealing someone. While Juan Gonzalez is only a short-term fix, Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, Ryan Ludwick, Caey Blake, and Grady Sizemore are all inexpensive and are under the Indians' control for the next 3-4 years. Ludwick is a guy I would think several teams might be after, and if one of them has a third baseman they'd like to deal, it might turn into a win-win trade. Neither the Phillies or Reds really need a right-handed outfielder, though. Either way, the Indians should be able to get something for Ludwick, if in fact he's the one tossed to the curb.
You could say that Victor Martinez v. 2004 would be that addition if he can climb out of his season-long slump from the left side of the plate. He pulled the ball with authority for the first time in quite a while, hitting a double and a home run off of Oakland starter Seth Etherton. That's a great sign, and probably even more significant than the Indians' 6-2 win. In order for the Indians to have any shot at the playoffs, Victor has to start hitting from the left side of the plate. Given that the Indians have a very important six game stretch on the road against the Twins and White Sox, ending his skid now becomes that much more important.
But I think that any of these moves is predicated on Aaron Boone's absence from the lineup. If you can't send him down, at the very least sit him on the bench and throw Casey Blake or Jose Hernandez out there at third. Time is of essence, and regardless of what move Mark Shapiro makes, it'll be a tough one. Hopefully he decides to bite the bullet and either demote or release Aaron Boone.
Ok, perhaps it is time to quit pretending that Aaron Boone will hit again. Last night, Boone was the difference between winning a four-game series and merely treading water.
Of course, the entire series was fantastic. Three straight extra-inning games, all four games decided in the teams' last at-bat, and fantastic pitching performances made the series seem more like an October matchup rather than a weekday series in May. No, it didn't get top-billing on SportsCenter (remind me why I even bother to watch that show?), but for pure entertainment purposes, you couldn't beat it. CC Sabathia recovered from a three-run fourth to go 8.2 innings to allow the team to not only stay in the ballgame, but have a chance to win it.
[Start Tangent]
Permit me to engage in a tangent. This isn't really targeted at ESPN per se, but they as the largest and most influencial sports network is most reponsible for the complete dumbing-down of sports shows. Instead of showing, you know, highlights, SportsCenter would rather bombard its viewers with "breakdowns" of the highlights, which are essentially an analyst telling the viewing what they would have seen if the actual highlight was shown. "Harold Reynolds shows you how to turn a double play! Joh Kruk tells you who's good!" I guess it's one thing if the talking heads have a track record of intelligent comments and ideas, but quite another if the only reason for being on the show is their affable personality or everyman-type banter. Which is why I don't watch Baseball Tonight if Mssrs. Kruk and Reynolds are on. Just because someone had success on the field doesn't mean that they're good at talking about the game away from the diamond. Think of this Player-Analyst complex as a parallel to the Player-Manager priniciple; some of the best managers in history had little to no major-league experience. The cult of personality that seems to permeate ESPN reaches its apex with characters like Kruk and Reynolds spouting platitudes and cliches, but unforrtunately does not stop there; try watching their college football studio shows. For that matter, try watching Stephen A. Smith's (or as Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert likes to call him, John A. Doe) rants.
[End Tangent]
When the Indians activate Juan Gonzalez (which could be prior to the start of their upcoming road trip), they should send Aaron Boone down. Or bench him. Casey Blake is currently posting a .708 OPS, which is pretty bad for a right fielder, but compared to Boone's .486 OPS, it looks positively Ruthian. This team needs offense, and for right now, I'll take a drop-off in defense at third in order to get it. Jody Gerut and Grady Sizemore are hitting well in left and center, and adding Juan Gonzalez would help greatly to stabilize the lineup, probably moving Victor Martinez down in the order.
CF Sizemore
3B Blake
DH Hafner
RF Gonzalez
1B Broussard
C Martinez
LF Gerut
2B Belliard
SS Peralta
His opposite-field hit against Joe Nathan notwithstanding, Martinez has simply been awful against right-handed pitching thus far. I think he'll figure out his swing eventually, but the team simply can't afford for him to be hitting cleanup while he does it. The good news for Martinez is that he gets to face Barry Zito tonight.
I was able to get to the Jake for the first this year, and I picked a great night to go. Thanks to the Pepsi can promotion, I got a pretty good bleacher seat for $6. Parking was $3, so if you add in the gas spent getting to the ballpark, the total cost was a little over $12. Not bad at all.
The ballgame itself was a typical Indians game; good pitching, little to no hitting. The Twins gave the Indians a run in the 7th when left fielder Lew Ford flat-out dropped a fly ball. Aaron Boone, who seems to be hitting the ball better, drove Gerut home later in the inning with a 400-foot sacrifice to center. And that was it until the 9th inning, when the Twins brought in closer Joe Nathan with a one-run lead. Several fans were leaving the ballpark at that point, and for good reason; he hadn't given up a run to the Indians in his previous three appearances. Unfortunately, the fans who left after the top of the ninth were kicking themselves when they got into their cars and turned on the radio; Ben Broussard hit the first pitch he saw into the seats. Tie game.
The Indians' bullpen had been worked hard in the past couple days, and when Kevin Millwood left the game in the fifth with a strained groin (although I feared the worst - an arm injury - when he hunched over on the mound), a tired pen had to pitch 4.1 innings. And for the most part, the relievers did their jobs. Betancourt, who was brought in without throwing in the bullpen, got the Indians to the 7th inning. Matt Miller was very good yet again, but Arthur Rhodes, pitching for the third straight day, was hit hard. Torii Hunter (who essentially was the Twins offense) doubled, and Jacque Jones singled him in. Just like that, the Twins had a 2-1 lead, and three outs from winning the game.
In the 10th, the Indians did what they couldn't do in the 9th; Victor Martinez drew a walk, Grady Sizemore bunted him to second, and Travis Hafner blooped a single to left for the win.
With Millwood likely heading to the Disabled List, Brian Tallet should be the first to be called up, although the team may bring up a reliever to help in the bullpen. Fernando Cabrera could fill that role until Millwood's spot in the rotation comes up. Or Kaz Tadano could be called up to provide some length.
Humpty Wickman delivered the ball,
Humpty Wickman had a great fall.
But all the Twins' runners,
And all the Twins' hitters,
Couldn't score with men on base yet again
Seriously, I have no idea how Bob Wickman saves games, but I guess some mysteries are better left unaswered.
Exhibit A in the volatility of bullpens are the 2004 and 2005 versions for the Indians. Arthur Rhodes and Scott Sauerbeck really consolidated the pen, and adding Matt Miller gives Eric Wedge a veritable Swiss Army knife to use as he sees fit. Do you need a sidearming left-hander to confound Justin Morneau? Bring in Scott Sauerbeck. How about a sidearming right-hander to get guys like Torii Hunter and Lew Ford? Call in Matt Miller. What about a power right-hander? You have David Riske and Bob Howry. The total price tag for the bullpen? If you count what the Pirates are paying for Rhodes, it comes to about $8M.
I don't think the Twins got the memo about Scott Elarton:
Elarton vs. Minnesota: 3.35
Elarton vs. Everyone Else: 5.38
Still, his performance last night may have bought him another 4-5 starts, which is bad news for Brian Tallet.
A piece of great news: Coco Crisp is only out 2-3 weeks instead of 3 months. Which makes the outfield situation even more interesting. You have Jody Gerut, Coco Crisp, Ryan Ludwick, Casey Blake, and Juan Gonzalez, all of whom have limitations, and all of whom have some redeeming value. If I were Mark Shapiro, I'd try to get 2-3 weeks of production out of Juan, and then pawn him off on somebody else in exchange for a prospect or two. But as we saw before, these logjams have a habit of working themselves out. But as of now, the Indians have too many marginal talents, so there may some opportunities for a trade.
...was Designated for Assignment by the Reds today. Given his 2005 salary ($6.25M), the Reds will most likely release him.
Apparently the last straw was an obscene gesture towards a fan, but I'd also think that giving up five runs to the Indians in Sunday's game had a bit to do with it.
Graves has been a completely different pitcher after starting 26 games for the Reds in 2003. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me to see him resurface as a competant middle reliever someone else. Of course, if his agent has an ounce of sense in him, he'd be in contact with Atlanta GM John Scheurholz by now.
"You're never as good or bad as you think you are."
Over this weekend, I've taken a look into the statistics to see how the Indians stack up compared to the rest of the American League. Here's what I found:
Runs Scored - Last (168)
OPS - 10th (.708)
Home Runs - 6th (46)
Walks - 9th (122)
RC/27 - 10th (4.12)
Team ERA - 5th (3.83)
K/9 - 3rd (6.53)
Opp. OPS - 2nd (.685)
WHIP - 3rd (1.23)
HR Allowed - 8th (39)
Starter ERA - 9th (4.63)
Reliever ERA - 1st (2.41)
Obviously those numbers tell you the offense has been bad, although not as bad as the runs indicate. The team hits for power; the biggest problem is getting on base to begin with. Of course having Victor Martinez, Aaron Boone, and Casey Blake in the lineup everyday is going to hurt the team. The addition of Juan Gonzalez in a couple weeks might help a bit, but the current middle of the order has to pick things up offensively, because to this point, a stellar bullpen has kept the team with shouting distance of .500. The pitching has been pretty solid, especially in the past couple of weeks, so there's still some hope, although the White Sox have to fall precipitously in the next couple months for the Indians to have any hope of catching them.
With the Twins and White Sox on the schedule 10 times between now and June 15th, the Indians still can get back into the race. But the margin for error is really slim.
I like to stay away from these types of articles for the most part, but this particular one is a gem. It's by Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, who put before himself the task of determining what ails the bottom third of baseball. Of course the Indians were among the bottom ten in baseball, and his solution? Well, I'll let him tell you:
Shapiro really needs to look at his manager, Eric Wedge, who hasn't been able to inspire this team. A young team with so much unfulfilled talent needs a proven major league manager who can show it how to win - a cache Wedge lacks. Piniella would be perfect, if available. Jim Leyland is right now.
Fantastic! All the Indians need to win is a new manager. And Lou Piniella, currently of the 15-30 Devil Rays, is the perfect man for the job. I'm not a regular reader of the Daily News, but the article actually made Bud Shaw look sane. Talent is what wins ballgames, but when talent isn't present, it's always the manager's fault. And of course it's a lot easier for a columnist to simply blame the manager than actually come up with another way to fix a team's bad play. Some other gems:
On the Pirates:
The management team of Dave Littlefield and Lloyd McClendon is sound, but they'll never succeed with this penurious ownership - a travesty for a great baseball town.
On the Mariners:
GM Bill Bavasi hired a retread manager in laid-back Mike Hargrove last winter - a supposed "safe" pick - and this team has responded accordingly.
On the Reds:
You get what you pay for and Dave Miley, a nice guy who at $400,000 is the lowest salaried manager in baseball, clearly does not have this team's respect.
Over the first couple months of the season, you've probably listened to the radio or TV and heard that the Indians have the worst or one of the worst defenses in the American League. The question is, what is the criteria for determining the "worst" defense? Turns that today's standard is simply the number of errors a team has committed, or sometimes people use team fielding percentage.
Personally, I think this measure is inadequate. This is like determining the best offense in the league by using only team batting average; you don't get the whole picture. In the case of defense, making the routine play is one facet of a good defense, but making plays that the average fielder won't make is a mostly untapped measure. One of my favorite team defensive measures is "Team Defensive Efficiency," which you can view at Baseball Prospectus. It is simply the percentage of balls in play that become outs; there's no scorekeeper bias at work here. It includes both "errors" and "hits." And lo and behold, the Indians are 4th in the American League in this measure at .7105 (the league average is .6974).
What does this mean? First of all, it means that errors don't tell the entire story; while of course you should make the routine play, making the "unroutine" plays should also be part of the defensive picture. Secondly, range does matter; to illustrate this point, imagine two shortstops. Shortstop A has a limited range, but makes the routine plays, while shortstop B has a very good range while making some errors.
Shortstop A:
2 Errors
3 "Unroutine" plays
Shortstop B:
10 Errors
15 "Unroutine" plays
Which is the more valuable shortstop? If you just used fielding percentages, it would be Shortstop A. But you aren't looking at the entire picture. Now this example is a very simple one, but extrapolate this to an entire team, and you'll see why judging a team's defense based solely on the number of errors it makes is a mistake. In 2004, the team finished second to last in the AL in defensive efficiency at .6855. The difference between this year and last is that the team is turning 5 more balls per hundred in play into outs than last season. That's a sizable difference, especially considering the margin of error the team is dealing with in order to win games.
By the way, am I the only one who enjoys listening to TV broacasts sans John Sanders? Nothing against Sanders, but I think Rick Manning and Mike Hegan make for a much more interesting viewing experience.
One more thing: CC Sabathia = Calvin Pickering + 95 mph fastball.
Recalled RHP Matt Miller from Buffalo (AAA)
Matt, who was predictably dominating in his stint with the Bisons, should return to a matchup role. The only downside of this move is that the team doesn't really have a longman, but at this point, the bullpen is rested enough so that guys like Betancourt and Riske should be able to go multiple innings. And Scott Elarton doesn't pitch until the team gets back to Cleveland.
Optioned RHP Jason Davis to Buffalo (AAA)
JD will occupy the spot in the rotation left vacant by Jason Bere's retirement. For those of you keeping score at home, the current Buffalo rotation is Brian Tallet, Jeremy Guthrie, Francisco Cruceta, Steve Watkins, and now Jason Davis. Apparently the team isn't comfortable with making Davis a "future closer" just yet. The performance of Fernando Cabrera may have something to do with that, but first of all, Davis needs consistent work, which he wasn't getting in Cleveland.
I don't think it's official just yet, but Coco Crisp may be out three months because of a possible torn ligament in his right thumb. Crisp's absence means that Jody Gerut will probably be an everyday outfielder, at least until Juan Gonzalez is healthy again. Crisp had been one of the better offensive threats in the lineup, and his injury makes an already punchless lineup even worse.
The AAA level is an interesting one, in that young, promising prospects play with veterens on their last legs. Nowhere is that more evident than in Buffalo. Jason Bere, who has spent the past three seasons coming back from one arm injury after the other, recently retired after just three starts with the Bisons. The 33-year-old had little left; AAA hitters touched him up for 15 runs in just eight innings. You also have players like Ernie Young, who probably don't have many opportunities left, but play anyway. Young is 35 years old, and the last time he made more than 100 plate appearances in the majors was 1996.
Then there's the young prospects, who see Buffalo as the last obstacle in their paths to the majors. Fernando Cabrera, who got a cup of coffee with the Indians last year, seems to have put it all together in 2005; he's cut down on his walks (3 in 21 innings), and if this were 2004, he'd already be in Cleveland. Andrew Brown, one half of the duo received for Milton Bradley, has had trouble adjusting to the bullpen thus far. Like Cabrera, Brown has been a starter his entire professional career, and made the switch to the bullpen once he reached the high minors. Ryan Garko, who has done nothing but hit since drafted in 2003, is on the cusp of the majors, but he has no set position; he was a catcher in college, but most think that he'll be a first baseman or designated hitter in the majors. John Farrell, the Indians' farm director, has said that Garko is one of the most polished offensive players he's seen. "Pure bats," or good offensive players without a position, tend to have a difficult time getting opportunities in the majors, and Ryan is already 24, but if he continues to hit, the Indians will have to shoehorn him onto their roster somehow.
Then there's a group of players in their late 20s and early 30s who are running out of time to make a career for themselves. Jake Gautreau, the team's third baseman, has had injuries derail his career so far. He's hit well this season (.277/.323/.538), and given Aaron Boone's struggles, he may get a shot soon. But many times, the call never comes, be it because of a veteren at the major-league level, or other circumstances. John Rodriguez, who had until this year spent his entire professional career in the Yankee organization probably knows all too well what can happen when the major-league club has little room for a young player. Rodriguez had a career year in 2004, hitting .294/.382/.542, but the Yankees had no need for him due to guys like Bernie Williams, Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui in their outfield. Others in this boat include outfielder Andy Abad and Steve Watkins, a pitcher from the Padre organization.
There's also a group of disappointments who have returned to Buffalo to figure something out, whether that be a swing or a delivery. Brandon Phillips, who in 2003 was tabbed the Indians' next star player, hit an absymal .208/.242/.311 during his stint with the Indians, was sent down, and hasn't received an extended opportunity since. Now Jhonny Peralta, who played with Phillips in 2004, is playing for the Indians at short, and Ronnie Belliard, picked up in 2004, has become the team's second baseman. Phillips is no longer talked about as a future core player, but in Buffalo, there's still an opportunity for a young player to get a second chance. Jeremy Guthrie, a former first round pick, is looking for his first extended shot in the bigs. His problem is twofold; he's 26, and he hasn't had any appreciable success in two full seasons. Much of his problems stem from an inability to throw strikes, but even moreso, it seems like his confidence is lacking. His ability shows through at times; in tonight's start, Jeremy pitched 6.1 dominant innings, and more importantly, 61 of his 97 pitches were strikes. Perhaps some light in Guthrie's head has flickered on, but he has lot of ground to make up.
As a team, the Bisons currently have the International League's best record. But for the players, the wins are secondary achievement; all of them are looking either for just one more shot in the majors, or their first opportunity to prove that they belong in the big leagues.
Placed OF Coco Crisp on the 15-day Disabled List (thumb)
Coco injured his thumb trying to stretch a double into a triple in yesterday's game. The injury came in the midst of a very good offensive stretch for Coco; he had been hitting .340/.426/.566 in May.
Recalled OF Jody Gerut from Buffalo (AAA)
Apparently, his knee is fine. Jody comes to Cleveland on an offensive tear; during his Buffalo rehab/option he hit .438/.518/.729. It should be interesting to hear what Gerut has to say after the game.
I like looking at things long-term, and I don't like making drastic moves based on small sample sizes. Given the play of the Indians to this point, it's really easy to go Shaw and rip the entire organization, calling for their removals. My previous attempt at humor aside, the long-term prospects of this team is still pretty good. Bob Wickman, Scott Elarton, Kevin Millwood, Jose Hernandez and Bob Howry are this year's crop of free agents, and given that Millwood is going to test the market no matter how much the Indians offer, there's no one there I'd recommend keeping for more than a team-friendly price.
But how are the Indians going to compete in the short-term? Well, there are a couple things I'd like to see happen, namely:
(1) Release Scott Elarton and call up Brian Tallet.
That Scott Elarton was one of the team's best starters in the second half last year said more about the Indians' rotation than it said about Scott. This season, he's allowed 41 hits in 31 innings. That's not good. Hitters are batting .325 so far this season, and half of his starts came against Kansas City and Seattle. Brian Tallet, a guy the Indians drafted in 2000 (the round after Corey Smith), is pitching very well in Buffalo, and he would slot easily into the rotation, as he pitched last night. I'm not rooting for an all-out implosion from Elarton to force the team's hand, but I just think they're wasting their time holding on to Elarton. It's not like last year where the team had no good options to turn to; Tallet is just one of three legitimate alternatives (the others being Steve Watkins and Jason Davis) they could plug into the rotation.
(2) Call up Kaz Tadano and send Jason Davis to Buffalo
Until the Indians decide one way or the other if JD is a reliever or starter, he should be throwing regularly. That isn't happening right now, and Davis is a guy who needs reps. I'd put him back into the rotation, but I'd be fine with having him set up Fernando Cabrera in the Bisons' bullpen. At least this way he can get some consistent work in. Tadano has essentially been Buffalo's long man, only getting one start, so he wouldn't have to make much of an adjustment.
(3) Send Aaron Boone to Buffalo and call up Jody Gerut
You don't like to send veterens down, but I really think this is in the best interest of the team. Boone is hitting an empty .147, if that's possible. His OPS is an absurdly-low .476. While his defense has been as advertised, it certainly can't make up for what he's done at the plate. Maybe a fresh start, without the pressure, can help Aaron figure out what's wrong his swing. Jody Gerut, once his knee has been declared sound, should probably be up in Cleveland. Will that mean he and Eddie Murray will get along? Probably not, but maybe he'll give the Indians some production in right field.
(4) Platoon Casey Blake and Jose Hernandez at third until Boone returns
Wait? Aren't both players right-handed? Yes, they are, but Blake doesn't have standard platoon splits, and Jose Hernandez does. Blake, in his career, is hitting .257/.323/426 against right-handed pitching, and Jose Hernandez is hitting .262/.324/.490 against left-handers. Ben Broussard is in the midst of one of his hot streaks, so I'd try to run him out there as much as possible.
(5) Spot Josh Bard against right-handers more often
Victor Martinez as a right-handed hitter is an All-Star. Martinez as a left-hander looks like Tim Laker. Given that you have Josh Bard, who's a halfway decent offensive catcher, it wouldn't hurt to spot him against a tough right-hander, regardless of normal playing schedules. Also, when Martinez is in the lineup against a right-hander, move him down in the order, and move Broussard to the third spot in the order, at least until Victor starts to hit from the left side again.
So there you have it. Nothing dramatic, other than the release of Elarton, but at this point I think you're stuck with what you've got.
To enhance your baseball-viewing pleasure, I'd like to introduce a new test that will allow you to safely miss an Indians game if other pressing needs arise. Just a simple few questions will determine whether today's starter will merely humble Indian bats or bury them, dig them up, spit on them, and rebury them. Either way, you can be self-assured that you will not waste a second of your life watching a dreadful offensive performance. Of course, I make no promises that, if directed to watch the game, the offense will be merely awful or even slightly horrific. But I do promise that by using this simple scale, you can avoid watching a dreadful offensive showing. Now onto the scale:
1. Which word most closely describes today's pitcher?
A. Crafty
B. Veteren
C. Inconsistent
D. Baseball Tee
2. How many years has today's starter been in the majors?
A. 15+
B. 10-14
C. 5-9
D. >5
3. Is the starter:
A. Left-handed
B. Right-handed
C. Ambidextrous
D. Armless
4. Does the lineup have in it:
A. Aaron Boone and Casey Blake
B. Aaron Boone, but not Casey Blake
C. Casey Blake, but not Aaron Boone
D. Neither
For each "A" answer, add 25 points
For each "B" answer, add 15 points
For each "C" answer, add 5 points
For each "D" answer, add 0 points
If the pitcher received 0-25 points: The Indians have a chance to score 4 runs...celebrate!
If the pitcher received 26-50 points: Play a game of solitare while the team bats, looking up occasionally on the off-chance that the team gets a runner on base
If the pitcher received 51-75 points: Go ahead, go on that date! You might check the radio now and again, though; the team might win 1-0, you know.
If the pitcher received 76-100 points: I hear that a dentist appointment followed by an IRS audit is a great way to kill three hours....
On Saturday, I mentioned in passing that the Indians optioned Jody Gerut to Buffalo. The biggest issue with Jody, according to the team, is that he doesn't currently have the mobility to play right field. According to Hal Lebowitz (sorry, no official link, although you can find a fan transcript here), Gerut is saying that he's in Buffalo because the Indians don't want him to be arbitration-eligible after the season. As it stands right now, Jody has just over 2 seasons' worth of major-league service time. Arbitration kicks in automatically for players with three seasons of service time and a percentage of players between two and three years of service time. While Gerut does have a point, I doubt the Indians are keeping him in Buffalo for that reason alone, given the team's offensive needs.
There are few people who would argue that the Indians don't have a weak-hitting outfield. Coco Crisp, who is really a center fielder, is playing left field, and Casey Blake, who was formerly a third baseman, is playing right. Grady Sizemore is the only guy who really is a good offensive and defensive fit at his position. The team needs more punch at its corners, especially its corner outfielders. Blake (-2.1 VORP) is the biggest culprit, but Coco Crisp (.415 SLG) in my mind doesn't provide enough power or on-base ability (.333) to be a legitimate left fielder.
Enter Gerut, and eventually, Juan Gonzalez. Both have at least some track records of offensive production, although in Gerut's case that track record is based primarily off his 2003 season. Juan Gonzalez, when healthy, is a pretty good hitter. But for Juan, "when healthy" over the past couple of years has meant "almost never." Gerut is obviously going to be ready sooner than Juan, but Gonzalez could be in Cleveland by the middle of June.
Unfortunately, it isn't as simple as just bringing Gerut or Gonzalez up to Cleveland; someone has to go. Casey Blake was just extended over the offseason (a move that I didn't like when it happened), Ryan Ludwick is out of options, and given the interest in Michael Restovich, the Indians aren't getting him through waivers, and Aaron Boone can't go to the minors without his consent. The Indians have about ten days to mull over what to do, and short of Boone agreeing quietly to go to Buffalo, whatever move they make will have some long-term consequences.
Then there's Grady Sizemore, who has several options left. Of course he's given the team no real reason to send him back, but thanks to baseball rules, he's a likely candidate to lose out in the outfield shuffle. I think that barring a trade, Sizemore will get optioned, Crisp will go to center, Blake to left, and Gerut will return to his accustomed position in right field. And the Indians will still have two corner players hitting under the Mendoza line playing every day.
I guess tonight was supposed to be how the Indians were supposed to win this year.
In a matchup of 2004 All-Stars, Jake Westbrook was the better pitcher, although he would have been hard-pressed to be worse than his counterpart. Ted Lilly, who missed several weeks in Spring Training, was awful. He walked five, struck out one, and when he did get the ball over the plate, Tribe batters got him for three hits. Ben Broussard, who seems to thrive with the bases loaded, lined a well-placed double in the right field gap to clear the bases in the first inning, and the team didn't trail again.
The rain came in the third inning, and given Lilly's performance up to that point, it seemed the Jays had the advantage. When Jason Davis, who I think needs more consistent work, gave up a home run to Alex Rios (the second of his career) and a base hit to the next batter, I felt the game was slipping away. But JD settled down and retired the seven Blue Jays, and turned the ball over to the back end of the bullpen. Three innings and a Ryan Ludwick homer later, the Indians had won a surpisingly undramatic 6-4 contest.
A note on Bob Howry. He seems to be suffering from a bit of control issues, which looks to be stemming from his release point. During a shot of him warming in the bullpen, Luis Isaac was demonstrating how Bob should be finishing his delivery. Several times during his inning of work, it looked like he held onto the ball too long, and his pitch tailed down and away. It's not a huge deal, but something to watch. I think David Riske will be getting more appearances in the eighth inning; he and Arthur Rhodes have been the most consistent arms out of a pretty consistent bullpen. Rhodes in particular has been excellent; his three-pitch strikeout of Corey Koskie tonight was exquisite.
I scratched my head when the lineup was posted. I understand that Ted Lilly is left-handed, but I don't see the need to drop Ben Broussard that far down in the order, much less hit Jose Hernandez and Ryan Ludwick 4-5. Yes, they both had good games, but I sometimes think that tinkering has its limit.
Victor Martinez is a completely different hitter depending which batter's box he's in. Take this with a grain of small simple size salt, but Victor is hitting .375/.432/.594 right-handed and .152/.230/.215 left-handed. It kind of reminds me of Jose Valentin, who was a switch hitter in name only. The good news for Victor is that another left-handed pitcher (Gustavo Chacin) is toeing the mound tomorrow. The bad news is that it's a day game after a night game, meaning Josh Bard will probably get the start. I guess this belies the work switch-hitters have to put in to maintain not one, but two batting stances.
Transactions
Reinstated Jody Gerut from the 15-day Disabled List; Optioned Him to Buffalo (AAA)
Jody was obviously not happy about the demotion, but the Indians are between a rock and a hard place right now. Jody's mobility isn't all the way back, and I don't think the team wants to pull the trigger on a tough move without making 100% sure that Jody is capable of playing right field. Speaking of Buffalo, Brandon Phillips is back from the dead; he's now hitting a more respectable .242/.301/.439. Whatever plate discipline he showed in 2004 seems to have gone away though; Brandon has whiffed 29 times to 10 walks. Mike Kinkade, who can play third base, would be a nice short-term fix if Boone does go to the minors. Besides his ability to get hit by pitches, he's walked 11 times as opposed to 15 strikeouts. He's slugging .495 for the Bisons.
Placed 1B Ryan Mulhern on the Disabled List (A+ - Jaw); Demoted IF Anthony Lunetta to Kinston (A+) from Akron (AA)
The converted outfielder literally took one on the chin in batting practice. That's too bad, since the 2003 draft pick was off to a pretty good start (.307/.393/.594)
Placed SS Brandon Pinckney on the Disabled List (A+ - finger); Reinstated C Clayton McCullough from the Disabled List
Another literal bad break for a member of the K-Tribe. Pinckney, who had a breakout year in 2004, was hitting just .222/.250/.333, but nevertheless, losing a middle infielder isn't a great thing for the organization give the dearth of prospects at short and second.
Placed RHP Travis Thompson on the Disabled List (AA - shoulder); Received RHP Kyle Evans from Extended Spring
Around the League...
The Chicago White Sox have now had the lead in every one of their games, shattering a major-league record. What's even more amazing about their fast start is that they've been a below-average offensive club, hitting a collective .259/.325/.397. Now obviously their stellar rotation (3.09 ERA) has a lot to do with that, but over the long haul, I just can't see them winning at the same pace with those numbers. But by the time they drift back to earth, their margin might be too much for the other teams in the division to overcome. Minnesota, probably the most balanced team in the division, is off to a pretty good 20-13 start, but they're already 6 games behind the Sox. Amazing.
5-4 isn't a bad record for a road trip, considering the places where the Indians had to play. The pitching was pretty decent, with some exceptions, and offense got incrementally better. Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta, the two youngest members of the lineup, started to hit and (more importantly) hit for power; both players are now slugging above .400.
In my opinion, what's really holding the offense back is the revolving door at the top of the order. Hell, the whole lineup has been a game of musical chairs, but the whole thing starts with the leadoff hitter. Frankly, there's no one perfectly qualified for the spot right now, but I think Coco Crisp is the closest thing this team has to one. To that end, here's my "set in stone" lineup:
LF Crisp
CF Sizemore
C Martinez
DH Hafner
RF Blake
1B Broussard
2B Belliard
3B Boone
SS Peralta
There's speed at the top of the order, although the on-base skills are lacking. But beggers can't be choosers. Casey Blake, second only to Travis Hafner as far as working counts is concerned, is hitting below .200, so just about anyone else there is an improvement. Well, there is Aaron Boone...
The Indians may have to make a difficult decision in the next couple of weeks. Jody Gerut, barring a setback, should be good to go in 7-10 days. He does have a couple options remaining (hat tip to reader Ron) , so the Indians can take the easy way out and simply option him to Buffalo until a spot opens up. Other candidates for demotion are Grady Sizemore and Ryan Ludwick; Grady has options remaining, while Ryan does not. There's the possibility of Aaron Boone accepting an assignment, but I think that's far-fetched. A couple readers have suggested this, but (a) I don't think the team would even ask him, and (b) there's very little chance he'd agree to go to the minors. Another option is to send down a pitcher, and go with an 11-man rotation. But I think carrying that many outfielders would mean that nobody would get consistent playing time, which is bad for all involved. These dilemmas tend to sort themselves out, but if a conveinient out doesn't present itself, a tough decision will have to be made.
The Indians' bullpen has quietly chugged along, keeping the Tribe in a lot of games. Because of the paucity of runs, the bullpen has really won a lot of games; I referenced the percentage of saves to wins last weekend, and since then, Wickman has saved game number nine. While it's nice that Wickman has that many saves, it again belies the slim margins the team has to contend with to win games. I'll stop beating that horse now.
Kevin Millwood has surprised me; not necessarily that he's pitched well, but his velocity has really gotten my attention. He could be the signing of the offseason, especially considering what some of the other free agents have been doing:
VORP, 2004 Free Agent Pitchers
Kevin Millwood 10.8
Eric Milton -3.2
Matt Clement 9.3
Jon Lieber 15.0
Carl Pavano 0.0
Pedro Martinez 14.6
Jaret Wright -9.5
Brad Radke 8.6
Russ Ortiz 1.0
Derek Lowe 11.7
Paul Byrd 0.6
Ryan Garko is mashing again after a slow April. Ryan's AAA line is now at .313/.387/.545 with a decent 19/11 SO/BB ratio. Ryan is really only a catcher or a first baseman given his physical ability, so third base is not an option. If Martinez, Hafner, or Broussard go on the DL, Ryan should be the first one called up. As of now, there's no way to fit him on the roster. Also performing well is Fernando Cabrera; he seems to be over the control problems that plagued him in Spring Training (1 BB in 13.2 IP).
JD Martin, who had been off to a great start for the Aeros, has been placed on the DL with an elbow injury, but it doesn't appear serious, according to Akron manager Torey Lovullo. Kyle Denney is on Buffalo's DL with "right ulnar neuritis." I'm no doctor, but I think that means he has some type of nerve inflammation in his right elbow. To take Kyle's place, the Bisons received the zombie formerly known as Jason Bere.
The Options page should be updated soon.
Arlington has been a house of horrors for the Indians in the past couple of years. I don't know if it's just a bad place for Indians pitchers, or if the Rangers hitters have figured out something that the rest of the league hasn't. That made last night's victory a welcome sight. The Indians used a first-inning implosion by Pedro Astacio to build a seven run lead, and held on in the late innings to beat the Rangers 8-6.
Grady Sizemore made two defensive plays in the field: one good, and one outstanding. The "good" play came in the 7th, where he made a catch against the wall; the "oustanding" play occurred in 5th inning, when Grady took away a Gary Matthews home run. Cliff Lee, who was pitching, doffed his cap to Sizemore, and deservedly so. But the catch was more important than it seemed at the time; the Rangers were down 8-1 at the time, but from the 6th inning on, they scored 5 runs and forced Eric Wedge to bring in Bob Wickman to close things out.
Cliff Lee, whose stuff doesn't really mesh with Arlington, pitched well enough, though he was the beneficiary of some fine defensive plays. Fellow flyball pitcher Scott Elarton pitches tonight, which doesn't bode well for the Indians; Scott hasn't won a road game in four years, and he's pretty close to pitching himself off the roster.
I think a swap of Jason Davis and Kaz Tadano would be a good move for both parties. The Indians still don't really know what to do with Davis, so I'd rather send him down to Buffalo and let him pitch regularly there until they figure out what his role is. Tadano, who has been the Bisons' long-man, has held opposing batters to a .209 average, and has walked 5 in his 24.1 innings of work. Brian Tallet would be a nice replacement for Scott Elarton; he's holding International League hitters to a .204 average.
By the way...Aaron Boone hit second in the order last night?!
No, this isn't a poll; it's what the Indians have to deal with because of their offense.
The Indians are 10th in the AL in starting pitching and 3rd in relief pitching. They rank 6th in overall pitching. The boogeyman that was the bullpen seems to have been exorcised, but another one has taken his place, and this one resides in the team's bats.
What does a bad offense do? It makes the margin of error for winning much smaller. A prime example took place during Tuesday's win against the Twins. Joe Mays, who the Indians have historically owned, could have been forced out of the game multiple times. But he wasn't, allowing the Twins to get to their bullpen, and keep the game close. Minnesota was one hit away from tying the game. Some times you can blow the game; remember a game a couple weeks back against the Angels? Bob Wickman didn't really pitch poorly...but his one mistake (a leadoff walk) allowed Garret Anderson's bloop hit to tie the game, and eventually lead to an Angels' win.
An interesting (and crude) measure I like to look at is to see what percentage of a team's wins come with saves. The Indians have 11 wins, and Wickman has saved 7 of them. Now, there are other teams with higher saves per win ratios (the Pirates' Jose Mesa has saved every one of his team's wins as of yesterday), but 7 saves out of 11 wins is an indicator of how "tough" the team's wins have been.
On the other hand, BJ Ryan has only 5 saves; his team has 18 wins. The Marlins' staff only has 3 saves among them; their team has won 15 games. Notice a trend? A bad offense can make winning games a lot tougher, and makes the pitching staff throw more high-leverage innings.
So, now that I've made a circuitous explanation as to why a bad offense isn't conducive to winning baseball games, who are the culprits? Let's take a look at the lineup's VORP, along with their positional rank among AL players:
C Victor Martinez -.6 (23rd)
1B Ben Broussard 2.8 (9th)
2B Ronnie Belliard 6.7 (4th)
3B Jose Hernandez -1.9 (16th)
3B Aaron Boone -7.1 (Last out of 23)
SS Jhonny Peralta 1.4 (13th)
SS Alex Cora 1.5 (11th)
RF Casey Blake -.4 (13th)
CF Grady Sizemore 3.1 (9th)
LF Coco Crisp -2.6 (19th)
DH Travis Hafner 11.8 (3rd)
That's an ugly sight. Essentially, Belliard and Hafner are the only two players hitting better than league-average, you have Broussard and Sizemore a bit below-average, and the rest are scraping the bottom of the list. Boone's -7.1 VORP is astounding; only Jack Wilson has a higher negative VORP. Yes, some of these players (Victor Martinez, I'm looking at you) will bounce back. But some I'm not so sure of; Coco Crisp is a reach in left field even with his glove, and Casey Blake in right field was going to be average at best. What's even more amazing is that this is the lineup that started Opening Day; no one's (knock on wood) has gone on the disabled list as of yet.
So are there any reinforcements on the horizon? Yes. Jody Gerut is about two weeks from returning to the lineup, and he could add some punch to the lineup, pushing Coco Crisp or Grady Sizemore out of the lineup. There's Juan Gonzalez but....no, just forget about him. Among the regulars in AAA, Jake Gautreau and Ernie Young are having good seasons thus far. Ryan Garko is also available, but you'd have to find somewhere he could play. However, other than Gerut, I think the Indians are pretty much stuck with what they presently have. The team just has to hope that Boone can shake off 15 months' worth of rust, and that Victor can get hot.